USA TODAY WASHINGTON — A president's standing after his first six months in office doesn't forecast whether he'll have a successful four-year term, but it does signal how much political juice he'll have for his second six months in office. .
Barack Obama, who completed six months in office Monday, has a 55% approval rating in the USA TODAY/Gallup Poll, putting him 10th among the dozen presidents who have served since World War II at this point in their tenures.
A president's standing at the moment is more than a matter of vanity. It affects his ability to hold the members of his own party and persuade those on the other side to support him, at least on the occasional issue. "Approval ratings are absolutely critical for a president achieving his agenda," says Republican pollster Whit Ayres. For Obama, the timing of his slide in ratings is particularly unhelpful: He's intensified his push to pass health care bills in the House and Senate before Congress leaves on its August recess.
His overall approval rating has dropped 9 percentage points since his inauguration in January, and his disapproval rate has jumped 16 points, to 41%. Trouble at home More people disapprove than approve of Obama on four domestic issues: the economy, taxes, health care and the federal budget deficit. The biggest drop has been on his handling of the economy, down 12 points since February; his disapproval is up 19 points. The most erosion has come not from Republicans or independents but among his own Democrats. Support from conservative and moderate Democrats is down by 18 points. Another group in the party's political base — those earning $20,000 to $50,000 a year — had a drop of 15 percentage points, to 47%. That could reflect one reason why moderate Democratic senators and the fiscally conservative Blue Dog Democrats in the House are demanding more cost controls in the health care plan before they'll sign on. "It's important if a president is trying to accomplish some big stuff legislatively," H.W. Brands, a professor at the University of Texas-Austin, says of the approval rating. He was one of several presidential historians who sat down with Obama at a private White House dinner this month. "Members of Congress are somewhat reluctant to tangle with a president who seems to have the backing of the American people."
At 55% overall, Obama's approval rating is a tick below that of George W. Bush at six months.
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