Sunday, November 29, 2009

Time's Joe Klein Blames Obama's Drop in the Polls On...The Media!

(Newsbusters).The mistakes President Obama has made in recent months that have led to his plummeting poll numbers aren't his fault.

According to Time's Joe Klein, it's all being caused by -- and I quote! -- "the media's tendency to get overwrought about almost anything."

Yep. After withholding from the public material information about Obama last year that almost certainly would have doomed his candidacy, the press today are focusing too much attention on silly things like his: response to the Fort Hood massacre; not spending enough time on unemployment; accomplishing nothing in Asia, and; allowing Khalid Sheikh Mohammed to be tried in New York City.

As one reads Klein's Wednesday column, you get the feeling he dearly misses the good old days when anything Obama did or said was met with thunderous applause, and anything that could take the bloom off the rose was squelched:

As a fully licensed pundit, I have the authority to weigh in here ... but I demur. Oh, I could sling opinions about every one of the events cited above — some were unfortunate — but it would matter only if I could discern a pattern that illuminates Obama's presidency. The most obvious pattern, however, is the media's tendency to get overwrought about almost anything. Why, for example, is the 20th anniversary of the Berlin Wall demolition so crucial that it requires a President's presence? Which recent U.S. President has gotten the Chinese to agree to anything big? (In fact, Obama has secured significant diplomatic cooperation from the Chinese on North Korea, Afghanistan and Pakistan.) Was his deep bow indicative of anything other than his physical fitness? (My midsection, sadly, prevents the appearance of obsequiousness in such circumstances.)

Stepping back a bit, I do see a metapattern that extends over the 40 years since Richard Nixon's Southern strategy began the drift toward more ideological political parties: Democrats have tough first years in the presidency. Of the past seven Presidents, the two Bushes rank at the top in popularity after one year, while Obama and Bill Clinton rank at the bottom, with Jimmy Carter close by. There is a reason for that. Democrats come to office eager to govern the heck out of the country. They take on impossible issues, like budget-balancing and health care reform. They run into roadblocks — from their own unruly ranks as well as from Republicans. They get lost in the details. A tax cut is much easier to explain than a tax increase. A foreign policy based in bluster — railing against an "axis of evil" — is easier to sell than a foreign policy based in nuance. Of course, external events count a lot: the ratings of Bushes I and II were bolstered, respectively, by the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the flattening of the World Trade Center. Reagan's rating — 53% and headed south — was dampened by a deepening recession.

Huckabee on FNS: 'Less than likely' I'll run in 2012'

Huckabee: 'Less than likely' I'll run in 2012

Mike Huckabee, the former Republican governor from Arkansas who has his own Fox show told Chris Wallace on "Fox News Sunday" that a 2012 presidential bid is "less than likely" and depends on whether Roger Ailes, the head of Fox News, keeps liking his show.

"The reason I wouldn’t is that this Fox gig I’ve got is really wonderful, " he said, talking about whether or not he would get in the race given that he is a GOP front runner according to most recent polls. "Jumping into the pool, you gottta make sure there is some water in it."

Huckabee said that GOP leaders would be foolhardy to think that President Barack Obama is an easy mark in 2012, given the example of President Bill Clinton's easy re-election for a second term after a bruising midterm in 1994.

And Huckabee said that during his 2008 campaign, he never got the backing of the GOP establishment.

"The Republican Party needs to unite in 2012," he said.

Friday, November 27, 2009

False hopes on Obama approval "bump" if Senate passes HC

(Pollster).A New York Times story on President Obama's approval rating yesterday included this unpersuassive claim:
"If Congress passes Mr. Obama's health care bill, the White House -- and many independent analysts -- believe that the accomplishment of a signature campaign promise is likely to push the president's approval ratings back up".

I can see why the White House might make this argument to wavering Senate moderates, but who are these unnamed "independent analysts" and what are they talking about? I don't know any reason to expect that Obama will receive a significant approval boost from passage of health care.

Let's consider the last three presidents who passed a "signature campaign promise" during their first year in office -- Reagan, Clinton, and George W. Bush. (I'm omitting George H.W. Bush, who didn't have much of a domestic agenda.)

*Congress passed Reagan's budget on June 25, 1981 and passed his tax bill on July 29, 1981. Here are his approval ratings from Gallup from that period:
6/5-8/81 59%
6/19-22/81 59%
[Budget passes June 25]
6/26-29/81 58%
7/17-20/81 60%
7/24-27/81 56%
[Tax bill passes July 29]
7/31-8/3/81 60%
8/14-17/81 60%

Do you see an approval boost? I don't.

*Bill Clinton signed his deficit reduction bill on August 10, 1993 (the major votes were on August 5 and 6). You can argue about whether this was a "signature campaign promise" (Clinton increased his focus on the deficit after taking office), but it was the major legislative accomplishment of his first year in office and there's no evidence he received a boost from it:
6/29-30/93 46%
7/9-11/93 45%
7/19-21/93 42%
[Bill passes August 5-6]
8/8-10/93 44 %
[Bill signed August 10]
9/10-12/93 47%

-Finally, there's George W. Bush, who passed his tax cut bill on May 26, 2001 and signed it into law on June 7, 2001 -- as with the previous two examples, there was no discernable bump in approval (I'm omitting the bipartisan No Child Left Behind bill, but the story is the same there):
4/20-22/01 62%
5/7-9/01 53%
[Bill passes May 26, signed June 7]
6/8-10/01 55%
6/11-17/01 55%
6/28-7/1/01 52%
7/10-11/01 50%

The larger story here is that many journalists and political operatives have a wildly exaggerated view of the president's ability to change public opinion outside of a foreign policy context (as with the Obama's health care speech). The reality is that Obama, like his predecessors, is largely at the mercy of the economy and external events unless a new war or foreign policy crisis emerges.

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Rasmussen Poll : Romney does best against Obama, Huckabee - worst

Mitt Romney (R) - 44%
Barack Obama (D) - 44%
Some other candidate - 6%
Not sure - 5%

Mike Huckabee (R) - 41%
Barack Obama (D) - 45%
Some other candidate - 6%
Not sure - 8%

Sarah Palin (R) - 43%
Barack Obama (D) - 46%
Some other candidate - 9%
Not sure - 3%

According to the poll numbers released today (shown above), Mike Huckabee is the weakest of three potential Republican candidates against Barack Obama, while Sarah Palin is the middle of the road, and Mitt Romney is in a dead tie with Obama as of now. Huckabee received just 41% support, while Palin achieved 43% support, and Romney was able to clinch 44% support.

With three years to the 2012 Presidential election these results are just predictions, however, it appears we will have a good shot at defeating Obama, and it appears Palin is becoming stronger in the polls, while Huckabee is becoming weaker.

Opposition to health care legislation lingers

(USAtoday).As the debate over a health care bill enters a critical stage, a new USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds Americans inclined to oppose congressional passage of the legislation this year.

The survey, taken Friday through Sunday, finds 42% against a bill, 35% in support of it. Despite nearly a year of presidential speeches, congressional hearings and TV ad campaigns by interest groups, more than one in five still doesn't have a strong opinion.

When pressed about how they were leaning, 49% overall said they would urge their member of Congress to vote against a bill; 44% would urge a vote for it.

Those Democrats surveyed were overwhelmingly in favor of a bill: 76% to 17%. By an even wider margin, 86% to 12%, Republicans were opposed. Independents were against it by 53% to 37%.

Obama has seen his approval rating on handling health care policy slide a bit since the summer. Now, 40% approve, 53% disapprove, down from a 44% approval rating in July.

Lou Dobbs run hurts Romney's chances to beat Obama

(Rasmussen).Former CNN anchor Lou Dobbs has indicated that he might consider an independent bid for the White House in 2012, and early polling shows he could attract up to 14% of the vote. However, some of that is almost certainly a generic protest vote as an unnamed “some other candidate” picks up between six percent (6%) and nine percent (9%) of the vote in similar 2012 match-ups.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that if the choice is between President Obama, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and Dobbs, Obama leads 42% to 34% with Dobbs pulling 14% of the vote.

With Mike Huckabee as the Republican nominee, Obama leads 42% to 36%, with Dobbs at 12%.

If Sarah Palin is the GOP nominee, it’s Obama 44%, Palin 37% and Dobbs 12%.

With Dobbs out of the equation, Obama and Romney are tied at 44%, Obama leads Huckabee 45% to 41%, and the president leads Palin 46% to 43%.

Lou Six pack! 6% for Lou Dobbs in a Romney-Obama '12 race

(frumforum).Mickey Kaus alerts us to the latest Greenberg-Carville’s Democracy Corps poll suggesting that 6% of likely voters might vote for Lou Dobbs in a Romney-Obama race in 2012.

Angelina Jolie Can’t Stand Obama – Says He’s a Socialist

US Magazine reported:

Barack Obama does not have Angelina Jolie’s seal of approval.

“She hates him,” a source close to the U.N. goodwill ambassador, 34, tells the new issue of Us Weekly (on newsstands now).

“She’s into education and rehabilitation and thinks Obama is all about welfare and handouts. She thinks Obama is really a socialist in disguise,” adds the source.

But don’t expect to see the Salt actress rally against Democrats on Fox News like her staunch Republican father, Jon Voight.

“Angie isn’t Republican, but she thinks Obama is all smoke and mirrors,” the source says.

And those political views are putting her at odds with Brad Pitt, 45, who is a big fan of the president and even went solo to the 2008 election party in Chicago.

"They get in nasty arguments all the time about it," says the source. "She doesn't respect Brad when it comes to politics, but, in the end, this won't tear them apart."

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

GOP extands 7 point lead in generic ballot; Among independents, GOP leads by 24 points

(Rasmussenreports).Republican candidates have extended their lead over Democrats to seven points, their biggest lead since early September, in the latest edition of the Generic Congressional Ballot.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 44% would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate while 37% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent.

Support for the Republican party held steady from last week, while support for Democrats dropped slightly. Republicans have held the lead for over four months now. Democrats currently have majority control of both the House and Senate.

Voters not affiliated with either party continue to heavily favor Republicans, 44% to 20%.

Britian's Defense Minister Bob Ainsworth criticises Barack Obama over Afghanistan

(The Telegraph).Mr Ainsworth took the unprecedented step of publicly criticising the US President and his delays in sending more troops to bolster the mission against the Taliban.

A “period of hiatus” in Washington - and a lack of clear direction - had made it harder for ministers to persuade the British public to go on backing the Afghan mission in the face of a rising death toll, he said.

Senior British Government sources have become increasingly frustrated with Mr Obama’s “dithering” on Afghanistan, the Daily Telegraph disclosed earlier this month, with several former British defence chiefs echoing the concerns.

But Mr Ainsworth is the first Government minister to express in public what amounts to personal criticism of the US president’s leadership over the conflict which has so far cost 235 British lives.

The Defence Secretary’s blunt remarks about the US threaten to strain further a transatlantic relationship already under pressure over the British release of the Lockerbie bomber and Mr Obama’s decision to snub Mr Brown at the United Nations in September.

Mr Ainsworth spoke out as the inquiry into the 2003 war in Iraq started in London, hearing evidence from British diplomats that the UK government concluded in 2001 that toppling Saddam Hussein by military action would be illegal.

Mr Ainsworth, speaking to MPs at the defence committe in the House of Commons, welcomed that troop 'surge' decision, but lamented the time taken to reach it.

“We have suffered a lot of losses," he said. "We have had a period of hiatus while McChrystal's plan and his requested uplift has been looked at in the detail to which it has been looked at over a period of some months, and we have had the Afghan elections, which have been far from perfect let us say.

“All of those things have mitigated against our ability to show progress... put that on the other side of the scales when we are suffering the kind of losses that we are."

Britain has 9,000 troops in Afghanistan and has announced it will send another 500, a decision some US officials saw as a move to put pressure on Mr Obama.

Mr Ainsworth said he is confident that once Mr Obama confirms his new strategy, allies will follow and British public opinion will shift back in favour of the mission.

“I hope and believe that we are about to get an announcement from the USA on troop numbers and I think that that will be followed by contributions from many other Nato allies and so we will be able to show that we are going forward in this campaign to an extent that we have not been able to in recent months with those issues still hanging,” he said.

Der Spiegel: Obama's Nice Guy Act Gets Him Nowhere on the World Stage

( Gabor Steingart-Der Spiegel.de).US President Barack Obama is back in the US after an Asian trip that produced few results.

When he entered office, US President Barack Obama promised to inject US foreign policy with a new tone of respect and diplomacy. His recent trip to Asia, however, showed that it's not working. A shift to Bush-style bluntness may be coming.

There were only a few hours left before Air Force One was scheduled to depart for the flight home. US President Barack Obama trip through Asia had already seen him travel 24,000 kilometers, sit through a dozen state banquets, climb the Great Wall of China and shake hands with Korean children. It was high time to take stock of the trip.

Barack Obama looked tired on Thursday, as he stood in the Blue House in Seoul, the official residence of the South Korean president. He also seemed irritable and even slightly forlorn. The CNN cameras had already been set up. But then Obama decided not to play along, and not to answer the question he had already been asked several times on his trip: what did he plan to take home with him? Instead, he simply said "thank you, guys," and disappeared. David Axelrod, senior advisor to the president, fielded the journalists' questions in the hallway of the Blue House instead, telling them that the public's expectations had been "too high."

The mood in Obama's foreign policy team is tense following an extended Asia trip that produced no palpable results. The "first Pacific president," as Obama called himself, came as a friend and returned as a stranger. The Asians smiled but made no concessions.

Upon taking office, Obama said that he wanted to listen to the world, promising respect instead of arrogance. But Obama's currency isn't as strong as he had believed. Everyone wants respect, but hardly anyone is willing to pay for it. Interests, not emotions, dominate the world of realpolitik. The Asia trip revealed the limits of Washington's new foreign policy: Although Obama did not lose face in China and Japan, he did appear to have lost some of his initial stature.

In Tokyo, the new center-left government even pulled out of its participation in a mission which saw the Japanese navy refueling US warships in the Indian Ocean as part of the Afghanistan campaign. In Beijing, Obama failed to achieve any important concessions whatsoever. There will be no binding commitments from China to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. A revaluation of the Chinese currency, which is kept artificially weak, has been postponed. Sanctions against Iran? Not a chance. Nuclear disarmament? Not an issue for the Chinese.

The White House did not even stand up for itself when it came to the question of human rights in China. The president, who had said only a few days earlier that freedom of expression is a universal right, was coerced into attending a joint press conference with Chinese President Hu Jintao, at which questions were forbidden. Former US President George W. Bush had always managed to avoid such press conferences.

A look back in time reveals the differences. When former President Bill Clinton went to China in June 1998, Beijing wanted to impress the Americans. A press conference in the Great Hall of the People, broadcast on television as a 70-minute live discussion, became a sensation the world over. Clinton mentioned the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre, when the government used tanks against protestors. But then President Jiang Zemin defended the tough approach taken by the Chinese Communists. At the end of the exchange, the Chinese president praised the debate and said: "I believe this is democracy!"

Obama visited a new China, an economic power that is now making its own demands. America should clean up its government finances, and the weak dollar is unacceptable, the head of the Chinese banking authority said, just as Obama's plane was about to land.

Obama's new foreign policy has also been relatively unsuccessful elsewhere, with even friends like Israel leaving him high and dry. For the government of Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, peace is only conceivable under its terms. Netanyahu has rejected Obama's call for a complete moratorium on the construction of settlements. As a result, Obama has nothing to offer the Palestinians and the Syrians. "We thought we had some leverage," says Martin Indyk, a former ambassador to Israel under the Clinton administration and now an advisor to Obama. "But that proved to be an illusion."

Even the president seems to have lost his faith in a genial foreign policy. The approach that was being used in Afghanistan this spring, with its strong emphasis on civilian reconstruction, is already being changed. "We're searching for an exit strategy," said a staff member with the National Security Council on the sidelines of the Asia trip.

An end to diplomacy is also taking shape in Washington's policy toward Tehran. It is now up to Iran, Obama said, to convince the world that its nuclear power is peaceful. While in Asia, Obama mentioned "consequences" unless it followed his advice. This puts the president, in his tenth month in office, where Bush began -- with threats. "Time is running out," Obama said in Korea. It was the same phrase Bush used against former Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein, shortly before he sent in the bombers.

There are many indications that the man in charge at the White House will take a tougher stance in the future. Obama's advisors fear a comparison with former Democratic President Jimmy Carter, even more than with Bush. Prominent Republicans have already tried to liken Obama to the humanitarian from Georgia, who lost in his bid to win a second term, because voters felt that he was too soft. "Carter tried weakness and the world got tougher and tougher because the predators, the aggressors, the anti-Americans, the dictators, when they sense weakness, they all start pushing ahead," Newt Gingrich, the former Republican speaker in the House of Representatives, recently said. And then he added: "This does look a lot like Jimmy Carter."

Mr. Independent mulls a bid for title - Mr. President

(Politico).Former CNN host Lou Dobbs fueled already rampant speculation about his political future Monday, sending the clearest signals yet that he's mulling a bid for president—and leaving third-party political operatives salivating over the possibility of a celebrity recruit for the 2012 campaign.

Less than two weeks after announcing his departure from the cable network—and following a series of interviews in which Dobbs encouraged speculation about his political plans—the anchorman known to fans as "Mr. Independent" finally made his presidential ambitions explicit on former Sen. Fred Thompson's radio show Monday.

Asked if he might make a run at the White House in 2012, Dobbs answered flatly: "Yes is the answer."

"I'm going to be talking some more with some folks who want me to listen in the next few weeks," Dobbs told Thompson. "Right now I'm fortunate to have a number of wonderful options."

Dobbs's political future, however, remains shrouded in question marks. He has left open a variety of paths to public office—in addition to toying with a presidential campaign, Dobbs hasn't ruled out a bid for Senate in 2012 in New Jersey—and also left his party affiliation a mystery.

Though Dobbs's criticism of the Obama administration and his famously conservative views on illegal immigration have raised the prospect he could run for office as a Republican, he has staked out a rhetorical position that places him outside both parties. In 2007, he penned a book titled, "Independents Day: Awakening the American Spirit" and in his final CNN broadcast Dobbs took broad aim at a political culture "defined in the public arena by partisanship and ideology rather than by rigorous, empirical thought and forthright analysis and discussion."

Following two consecutive presidential cycles in which independent contenders had virtually no impact at the polls, independent political strategists are delighted at the prospect of a third-party campaign for the White House headlined by a high-profile, TV-friendly candidate with the potential to scramble the national political map.

"I would assume he's going independent, since he's made a very strong case that that's where he is," said Bay Buchanan, who ran Pat Buchanan's 2000 campaign for president as the Reform Party's candidate. "There's enormous movement out there, I think more so than when Pat ran. I think they've really given up on Republicans, they've given up on Democrats; so he would be stepping into something where a path had been laid."

Rasmussen: Obama in lowest approval number ever - 45% approve, 54% disapprove

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows that 27% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Forty-two percent (42%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -15. This is the lowest Approval Index rating yet measured for President Obama

Fifty-two percent (52%) of Democrats Strongly Approve while 68% of Republicans Strongly Disapprove. Among those not affiliated with either major political party, just 16% Strongly Approve and 51% Strongly Disapprove.

Overall, 45% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the President's performance. That matches the lowest level of total approval yet measured for this president. Eighty-one percent (81%) of Democrats approve as do 33% of unaffiliated voters. Eighty-three percent (83%) of Republicans disapprove.

Among all voters, 54% now disapprove.

Yes, she can: How Palin has a shot at the presidency

(Matthew Dowd-WaPo).President Sarah Palin. To many pundits and late-night comedians, this sounds like a punch line, and to many die-hard Democrats it sounds like a reason to leave the country.

Yet while the conventional wisdom has it that Palin is too badly damaged to make a serious run in 2012 -- and I agree that her success is not probable -- it is definitely a possibility that Palin could be elected president of the United States.

Those having concerns about my objectivity or wondering whether I am a "Palinista" should keep in mind that I raised serious questions about her qualifications last fall -- doubts I still have -- and that I predicted John McCain would look back at his vice presidential pick with remorse.

Looking ahead to the political landscape of the 2012 presidential election, there are certain elements to keep in mind, assuming that President Obama runs for reelection.

First, Gallup polls over the past 60 years show that no president with an approval rating under 47 percent has won reelection, and no president with an approval rating above 51 percent has lost reelection. (George W. Bush's approval rating in the weeks before the 2004 election hovered around 50 percent.) The 2012 election will be primarily about our current president and whether voters are satisfied with the country's direction.
ad_icon

Who the Republican candidate is, and his or her qualifications and abilities, will matter only if Obama's approval rating is between 47 and 51 percent going into the fall of 2012. Interestingly, in the latest Gallup poll Obama's approval rating was at a precarious 49 percent.

Second, America is still (unfortunately) politically divided and polarized, and Palin benefits from this dynamic. While Democrats love Obama, Republicans look on him with real disfavor. The gap between Obama's approval rating among Democrats and among Republicans is nearly 70 percentage points -- a higher partisan divide than either Bill Clinton or George W. Bush experienced. Obama's agenda and actions this year, and some mistakes, have solidified this divide.

Polls show that Palin's favorability numbers are a mirror image of those of Obama. She is respected and loved by the Republican base, while Democrats despise her. Granted, independent voters have significant reservations about her capability to be president, and this would be a hurdle in the general election. But to win the Republican nomination, Palin needs only to get enough support from the base to win early key states. Already, in nearly every poll today, she has a level of support that makes her a viable primary candidate. Just look at the crowds and the buzz her book tour is drawing.

While today I would not support a Palin candidacy, here are five suggestions that would go a long way toward winning her more converts:

-- Quality over quantity. You don't need to "tweet" quite so much. You don't need to be at countless rallies and photo ops. Instead, seek out substantive platforms where you can relate to people in a thoughtful, measured way. Appear on Sunday shows every now and then, sit down with Charlie Rose and editorial boards, and give serious speeches on your approach to the world in the 21st century.

-- Hope and fear. To be elected president, a candidate has to understand voters' fears but appeal to their hopes. Ronald Reagan (and Bill Clinton) knew this very well. To do this more comprehensively, I would suggest traveling more to better get a handle on where the voters are on topics related to finances, faith, race, etc. Get out of the bubble of high-profile events. Go to the inner cities, the suburbs and small towns where folks are trying to live their lives through great anxiety. And don't go to talk about yourself, but to listen to others.

-- Reagan is the past. While Reagan is a beloved president who did much for this country, folks want to look to the future and believe in a new brand of leader. Espousing the values Reagan spoke to and represented is fine, but you need to be yourself, not an acolyte for a president who is now in the history books.

-- Use humor. In responding to controversy, bad press and negative occurrences in general, learn to let it slide off of you with a knowing smile. Maybe even use some self-deprecation. Levi Johnston, your almost son-in-law, has been a thorn in your side. Let it go. Publicly sparring with a teenager is not presidential. Don't be afraid to make fun of yourself. Voters like candidates who know that they aren't perfect and can laugh at themselves.

-- Think accountability. Yes, bad things happen to good people, and it isn't fair. But voters don't want to hear all the excuses of why an interview didn't go well or which other person was responsible for a bad decision. Americans want presidents who accept blame when things go wrong. They are tired of their leaders and institutions not admitting mistakes, learning from errors and making improvements.

Like it or not, if Sarah Palin decides to seek our nation's highest office, she has a shot. The probability of her success depends on her ability, and that of President Obama, to admit and learn from their mistakes as we head into 2012.

Monday, November 23, 2009

Anger over Health care, Palins high profile bring down Romney's popularity among Republicans

(Public Policy Polling).Mitt Romney is considerably less popular with Republican voters than Sarah Palin or Mike Huckabee, and that problem has become worse for him over the course of the year.

On our monthly 2012 polls, which began in April, an average of 74% of Republicans have held a favorable opinion of Palin to 66% for Huckabee and 56% for Romney.

The gap hasn't always been that wide though. On the first three iterations of this survey, from April to June, Palin averaged a 76% favorability number to 67% for Huckabee and 63% for Romney. On the last three runs, from September to November, Palin has averaged 72% to 64% for Huckabee and just 51% for Romney.

Romney polled in the 60s on the first three polls but has not reached that threshold since and now for the first time he's below 50% with the party base. I don't have any theories to explain Romney's popularity slide with Republican voters.

The higher the profile of the healthcare debate, the lower Romney's numbers go.

Scott Hennen Show - Dick Cheney Exclusive Interview

The 'Real' Jobless Rate: 17.5% Of Workers Are Unemployed

(CNBC).As experts debate the potential speed of the US recovery, one figure looms large but is often overlooked: nearly 1 in 5 Americans is either out of work or under-employed.

According to the government's broadest measure of unemployment, some 17.5 percent are either without a job entirely or underemployed. The so-called U-6 number is at the highest rate since becoming an official labor statistic in 1994.

The number dwarfs the statistic most people pay attention to—the U-3 rate—which most recently showed unemployment at 10.2 percent for October, the highest it has been since June 1983.

The difference is that what is traditionally referred to as the "unemployment rate" only measures those out of work who are still looking for jobs. Discouraged workers who have quit trying to find a job, as well as those working part-time but looking for full-time work or who are otherwise underemployed, count in the U-6 rate.

With such a large portion of Americans experiencing employment struggles, economists worry that an extended period of slow or flat growth lies ahead.

"To me there's no easy solution here," says Michael Pento, chief economist at Delta Global Advisors. "Unless you create another bubble in which the economy can create jobs, then you're not going to have growth. That's the sad truth."

Pento warns that forecasts of a double-dip ("W") or a straight up ("V") recovery both could be too optimistic given the jobs situation.

Instead, he believes the economy could flatline (or "L") for an extended period as small businesses struggle to grow and consequently rehire the workers that have been furloughed as the U-3 unemployment rate has doubled since March 2008.

Economists cite several reasons for the phenomenon.

For one, more workers are becoming discouraged as real estate—the focal point for the expansion in the earlier part of the decade—has collapsed and taken millions of directly related and ancillary jobs with it.

Many workers believe those jobs aren't coming back, and have thus quit looking and added themselves to the broader unemployment count.

"In the earlier part of this decade, 40 percent of all new jobs created were in real estate. Attorneys, mortgage brokers, agents, construction—they were all circled around housing," Pento says. "We've had a jobless recovery in the last two recessions. This is going to be the third jobless recovery in a row."

Another factor that may be leading people onto the rolls of those no longer looking for jobs is the government's accommodative extensions of jobless benefits.

"Workers are unemployed for a much longer span than we've seen historically," says David Resler, chief economist at Nomura Securities International in New York. "Part of that may be affected by the longer availability of benefits. It reduces the incentives for an urgent job search."

Schumer Coffeemaker Sen.Gillibrand (NY-D) Struggles with Recognition

A new Marist Poll finds that 10 months after Kirsten Gillibrand (D) was appointed to the U.S. Senate she has failed to become a household name among registered voters in New York State.

Just 25% of New York voters think Gillibrand is doing either an excellent or good job in office, and 12% believes she is performing poorly. Perhaps, though, Gillibrand's bigger concern is that 24% of the electorate is unsure how to rate her.

There has been a great deal of talk over the last few days about whether former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani will oppose Gillibrand in the 2010 race for U.S. Senate. If that’s the case, it could spell trouble for Gillibrand. In a hypothetical matchup against Gillibrand, Giuliani leads 54% to 40%. But, how would she do against another well-known name, former Governor George Pataki? Here, voters divide. Pataki receives 47% of the vote and Gillibrand garners 45%. 8% are unsure.

RGA releases Zogby poll: Only 43% nationwide (including only 37% Independent) say they would re-elect Obama

(earthtimes).The Republican Governors Association released the results of a poll today that show only 42% of voters in competitive 2010 gubernatorial races would vote to re-elect President Obama. This is roughly the same amount of support each of the candidates who Obama backed in the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races recently received from voters.

In addition, only 43 percent of voters nationwide say they would re-elect President Obama, including just 37 percent of Independent voters, according to the Zogby International/O’Leary Report Poll.

The Zogby/O’Leary Poll asked:

If the presidential election were held next month, would you vote to re-elect President Obama or would it be time for someone new in the White House?

Just 42 percent of Americans who voted in the 2008 presidential election, and who will vote in competitive gubernatorial races next year, would vote to re-elect President Obama. Nearly 45 percent say it is time for someone new in the Oval Office, and 12 percent say it would depend on who runs against Obama.

Only 43 percent of Americans who voted in the 2008 presidential election say they would vote to re-elect Obama – ten percent fewer votes than the President received on Election Day last year. Forty-five percent say it is time for someone new to be president. Eleven percent say that their vote for-or-against President Obama would depend on who is running against him, and one percent are not sure.

Among Independent voters, only 37 percent say they would vote to re-elect Obama. Forty-six percent say it is time for someone new, and 17 percent of Independents say it would depend on who is running against Obama.

In addition, a majority of Americans do not trust President Obama to get legislation passed that would create jobs in 2010.

Almost 42 percent of voters in competitive 2010 gubernatorial races say they do not trust the Obama administration “at all” to get job-creating legislation passed, while just 28 percent trust the Administration “very much.” An additional 12 percent don’t trust the Administration much to pass such legislation, and only 18 percent trust “somewhat.”

Likewise, 42 percent of voters nationwide say they do not trust the Obama White House “at all” to pass laws that create jobs, and an additional 11 percent do not trust the Obama administration much to get such laws passed. Only 28 percent say they trust the President’s administration “very much” to accomplish this task, and an additional 18 percent say they trust it “somewhat.”

“We saw how President Obama’s popularity is sinking in the recent Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections, where not much more than 40 percent of voters in each of those two states voted for the Obama-backed candidate,” said Governor Haley Barbour, chairman of the Republican Governors Association.

Obama inspires; Palin connects

(Rex Murphy-theglobeandmail).There are two great political speakers in the America today. Sarah Palin is the other one.

Barack Obama's speaking skills are his signature talent. He's a platform performer, a speechmaker in the great tradition, a kind of teleprompter Cicero. The campaign to become President owed more to Mr. Obama's oratorical mastery than to any other element. His speech on race in America, necessitated by revelations of the ugly thoughts and sentiments of his hometown preacher, Rev. Jeremiah Wright, was the most important event of his campaign. If it had failed, his candidacy would have been doomed. Under pressure – the great test of the real speechmaker – he delivered.

The other great speech of the U.S. campaign season was Sarah Palin's on receiving the vice-presidential slot on the McCain ticket. This was a speech delivered under even greater pressures than that of Mr. Obama. John McCain's choice of Ms. Palin had been early and widely criticized, and in some quarters ferociously reviled. She had never really been under the national spotlight before. The entire media were focused on her with an intensity almost unseen in the annals of vice-presidential politics. If she'd been just “okay,” or messed up, John McCain's campaign was over. It was the highest of high-stakes gambles.

Did she deliver? She soared. She was the very acme of self-confidence and ease. She mixed a natural charm with a mischievous edge of sarcasm toward her opponents – even daring the unthinkable by pinging The One himself. It was her “first serve” on the national stage and she delivered an ace. The backwoods hick knocked it out of the hall that night – not only did she not sink the McCain campaign, she gave it the only real vitality and spark that gloomy, tight, fussy little campaign had from start to finish.

Her speech, in fact, was the rhetorical equivalent of Mr. Obama's crucial one. They do not as speakers, it is obvious, share the same idiom. Mr. Obama is utterly composed, deliberate down to gesture and word, very conscious that he is a “figure” on a stage. Mr. Obama “bestows” himself on an audience. Ms. Palin has none of that. She will never speak in front of faux Greek columns. She walks on the stage much the same way she'd go into a gas station. But she's shrewd in her choice of themes, has a marvellous feel for her audience, and a confidence that will never be confused with arrogance.

They are, in the way fate or the mysteries of politics sometimes offers such things, curiously equivalent or parallel figures, polar opposites but equals. Ms. Palin connects: Mr. Obama inspires. She's a latter-day frontier figure, impulsive, instinctive; he's pure urban cool, highly deliberate, even detached. Both have real charisma.

It will make Obama fans perspire to hear this, but Ms. Palin has a more forceful bond with her supporters than he with his. Mr. Obama offers a kind of self-flattery to his worshippers. They feel exalted that they have the intelligence or sensibility to see how remarkable their man is. But he remains remote. Ms. Palin works close up. She offers those much invoked, but actually neglected figures, “the ordinary Joe or Josephine,” a real sense that she does represent them.

Ms. Palin is a real and evolving element in the great story of American politics. She is the “other half” of the Obama moment, and she may be in the ascendant. Mr. Obama is losing his lustre, his appeal is dimming, at the very moment the Alaskan outsider is staking her claim. Those who call her a joke are expressing an anxious hope not offering a rational description.

Ms. Palin has rare gifts and stamina enough to give them play. She is the second most outstanding figure on the great stage of American politics.

Sunday, November 22, 2009

48 YR OLD BARACK OBAMA POPULARITY SINKS TO 48%

(THE EXPRESS).A YEAR after his election was heralded as the start of a bright new era, President Barack Obama’s popularity rating is at an all-time low.

Yesterday he urged Americans to be patient over the economy and was forced to defend his trip to the Far East after heavy criticism that he had failed to make any trade agreements.

With US unemployment levels at a generational high of 10.2 per cent, he said in his weekly address to the nation: “Even though it will take time, I can promise you this, we are moving in the right direction. The steps we are taking are helping.”

One source close to the President said he was highly aware that the public was getting impatient and wanted to see him deliver on a single policy or promise.

On Sunday a Gallup poll showed Obama’s job approval rating had dropped to 48 per cent, the first time it has fallen below 50 percent was on Friday to 49%.

LETS NOT GIVE UP YET! Politico:How health care reform could fall apart

(POLITICO 44).Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid eked out 60 votes on a procedural motion to start the health care debate Saturday night – but there’s no guarantee he can pass a bill on the merits.

And as he struggles, the reasons are clear: deep divides among Democrats on a public insurance plan, abortion, tax hikes and cost-cutting. Liberals want the plan to be generous enough. Moderates fear a budget-buster. And everyone is trying to avoid angering seniors.

Even in the blush of Saturday’s victory, Reid (D-Nev.) is far from having the votes to move his $848 billion package to final passage. At least four centrists have pledged to oppose it in its current form, largely over the public option. Reid is in a bind. Stay to the left, and moderates vote no. Move a tad to the right, and Reid faces insurrection from the left, as liberals in his own caucus and in the House vow not to compromise any further on their signature issue.

As one of the Senate most liberal members, Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), told POLITICO’s The Arena: “I have made it clear to the administration and Democratic leadership that my vote for the final bill is by no means guaranteed.”

Health care reform proponents considered Saturday’s vote a major milestone, one that significantly boosted the odds of passing a bill. But, as Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) vowed Saturday, “the battle has just begun.”

Here are the battle lines where President Barack Obama’s vision of reform could falter.

read more here

SNL Bashes Obama, Stimulus, Healthcare and Cash for Clunkers

Saturday, November 21, 2009

A Message from Michael Steele: A chance to cut Obama's term in half

(via email).Last week's big Republican victories in New Jersey and Virginia proved what the Obama Administration's apologists in the liberal mainstream media have been avoiding telling you -- the bloom is off the Barack Obama rose.

As hard as the White House and leftist pundits try to spin Election Day's results, there's no arguing the big change in voter attitudes toward the Obama Agenda.

In 2008, Barack Obama carried Virginia by 6%, and the Democrat stronghold of New Jersey by 14%.

Last week? New Jersey's GOP candidate for governor Chris Christie bested incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine by 4 percentage points, and in Virginia, Republican Bob McDonnell defeated his Democrat opponent by 18 points -- that's a 24% turnaround!

Jacob, Barack Obama won election last year, aided by his claims of moderation and transparency, and the huge cover he received from the adoring liberal media. Many Americans gave the relatively unknown first term Illinois senator the benefit of the doubt, and are now coming to regret it.

Instead of centrist policies, they have seen an extreme far-left assault on private enterprise and personal liberties. From pork barrel "stimulus" to unprecedented government spending and debt, and auto company takeovers to the present attempt at a socialist seizure of health care.

In New Jersey and Virginia, the voters have realized their mistake -- and sent a clear message to the Obama Democrats. When polled in both states about their votes for the Republican candidate, 68% and 74% respectively agreed that they were sending a message to the Obama team that they were "unhappy with the direction they are taking Washington and the country."

But are the Democrats listening? Not a chance. Instead, despite losing in two states where Democrats had controlled the governor's mansion for years, Nancy Pelosi arrogantly declared "We won!" Then she and her leftist followers dismissed the clear will of the people and rammed their socialist health care takeover scheme through the House of Representatives on Saturday.

Our victories last week are a great start, but as long as the radical Obama-Pelosi liberals are determined to force their socialist agenda on the American people, our work isn't done.

You can help our Party spread the word about the Obama-Pelosi Democrats' disastrous, arrogant plans, and help us recruit the commonsense, conservative Republican candidates today who will defeat them in next year's crucial mid-term elections.

Please make a contribution of $25, $50, $100, $500 or $1,000 to the Republican National Committee today, to end the Democrats' Congressional majorities and cut Barack Obama's term in half.

Chris Matthews on Obama: “Is he just too darned intellectual?”

Friday, November 20, 2009

David Frum: Palin’s Secret: ‘Very Powerful Sexual Signals’

"We see that in the way men like her much more than women do."


CNN Poll: Blame for recession shifting from GOP to Democrats

(CNN) - Nearly two years into the recession, opinion about which political party is responsible for the severe economic downturn is shifting, according to a new national poll.

A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Friday morning indicates that 38 percent of the public blames Republicans for the country's current economic problems. That's down 15 points from May, when 53 percent blamed the GOP. According to the poll 27 percent now blame the Democrats for the recession, up 6 points from May. Twenty-seven percent now say both parties are responsible for the economic mess.

"The bad news for the Democrats is that the number of Americans who hold the GOP exclusively responsible for the recession has been steadily falling by about two to three points per month," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "At that rate, only a handful of voters will blame the economy on the Republicans by the time next year's midterm elections roll around."

Thirty-six percent of people questioned say that President Barack Obama's policies have improved economic conditions, with 28 percent feeling that the president's programs have made things worse, and 35 percent saying what he's done has had no effect on the economy.

PPP: Romney does best against Obama with key Independent voters

(PPP).Barack Obama's still leading all of his top potential opponents for 2012, but with his approval rating nationally below 50% for the first time his margins against a couple of them have dropped below what he won against John McCain last fall.

For the eighth month in a row Mike Huckabee comes the closest to Obama of the leading GOP hopefuls but for the first time he has company in Mitt Romney. Both of them trail the President by five points, Huckabee by a 49-44 margin and Romney by a 48-43 spread.

The key to Huckabee's strong performance is that he does the best of the Republican candidates we tested with the party base, taking 87% of the GOP vote in a head to head with Obama. There is some bad news for the former Arkansas Governor in the poll too though, as his favorability has moved slightly into negative territory by a 37/36 margin. This is the first time Huckabee has been in the red on that front.

Romney's strength in his best performance yet against Obama is with independents. While the other GOP candidates trail by 7-9 points with them Romney is at just a 44-42 deficit. His favorability numbers in the poll are less than impressive though, with 30% of voters holding a positive opinion of him to 39% negative. That has a lot to do with fewer than 50% of Republican voters saying they have favorable opinion of him.

Obama's approval Dips Below 50% In 5 Polls






Rasmussen Reports: 47 %
FOX News: 46 %
Gallup: 49 %
Quinnipiac: 48 %
PPP: 49 %

Thursday, November 19, 2009

Palin does O'Reilly - on the campaign and the Media




Bernie Goldberg Review's O'Reilly Palin Interview- She came off Likeable!!!

PPP Poll: Majority of GOP voters (and almost a third Americans) think ACORN stole election for Obama

PPP's newest national survey finds that a 52% majority of GOP voters nationally think that ACORN stole the Presidential election for Barack Obama last year, with only 27% granting that he won it legitimately. Clearly the ACORN card really is an effective one to play with the voters who will decide whether Hoffman gets to be the Republican nominee in a possible repeat bid in 2010.

Belief in the ACORN conspiracy theory is even higher among GOP partisans than the birther one, which only 42% of Republicans expressed agreement with on our national survey in September.

Overall 62% of Americans think Obama legitimately won the election to only 26% who think ACORN stole it for him, as few Democrats or independents buy into that line of thinking.

Palin sells 300,000 books in first day; Favorable ratings climbing up

(the Daily Beast).Sarah Palin sold 300,000 copies of Going Rogue on its first day of sale, Duff McDonald has learned. One component of a media rollout that doubled as a a one-woman economic stimulus package.

A HarperCollins insider told The Daily Beast that the book sold a staggering 300,000 copies on the first day alone, which was Tuesday. “Sales are phenomenal, and we are convinced that the book will continue to sell phenomenally for some time to come,” says the insider. They’re not prevaricating: As of 2:30pm today, the book was #1 on Amazon, ahead of both Stephen King’s new novel, Under the Dome, and Dan Brown’s The Lost Symbol. The latter sold 1 million copies on its first day, but that figure included the UK, and top fiction generally trumps non-fiction. Any way you carve it, Going Rogue looks to be a $12 million goldmine

(FOXnews).Despite being characterized by many as a divisive force in her party and the nation, Americans are much more likely to give Palin a positive rating (47 percent favorable) than another prominent female leader — Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (28 percent favorable). Moreover, about six in 10 Americans (61 percent) think Palin has been treated unfairly by the press, according to the latest Fox News poll.

President Obama recently stated that he "probably won't" read Sarah Palin's new book. But his possible opponent in the 2012 elections trails him in personal favorability by only seven points (54 percent to 47 percent). Among the critical segment of independent voters, they are virtually even (Obama at 50 percent; Palin at 49 percent).

The key to victory - Romney well received by young students

(LAtimes).A few minutes before Mitt Romney spoke to conservative donors at a dinner hosted by the Young America's Foundation conference in Santa Barbara this month, he made a surprise appearance before a roomful of student attendees who had been squeezed out of the dinner due to lack of space.

"Hey, everybody!" he said. "Ho! Ho!"

The 200 or so young conservatives cheered. "You are a good American!" one young man shouted.

For a few minutes, the former Massachusetts governor bantered with the crowd with the ease of a stand-up comedian. He fielded questions about the economy -- "It will get better" -- and the 2012 presidential election.

"Are you running?" someone asked.

Romney laughed. "I'm running up the stairs," he said.

Romney, who sought the Republican presidential nomination last year and lost to Arizona Sen. John McCain, is widely seen as a front runner in the race for the 2012 nomination. Although he hasn't announced his intentions, he spoke like a candidate at the conference, seeming eager to impress the deep-pocketed donors in attendance.

The Young America's Foundation aims to groom high school and college students to be future leaders by exposing them to the conservative philosophies that organizers say are missing from many classrooms. Last weekend's conference brought nearly 300 high school and college students to the Reagan Ranch Center, where the foundation is based, for a series of lectures.

A website tracking potential candidates for the 2012 presidential election reports that...

...Romney's political action fund raised $440,000 in October. The website, race42008.com said Romney's Free and Strong America PAC has raised more than $3 million so far this year.

Interestingly, the site also compared Romney's fundraising numbers with those of two of his likely opponents in the primary, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.

As of July 1 of this year, Romney had raised $1,908,000, Palin, $733,000, and Huckabee, $304,000, the website reports.

During the 2008 campaign, some conservatives said they were hesitant to vote for Romney because he was perceived as being liberal on some social issues.

On Friday, he seemed determined to overcome that impression.

In his speech, given in a room filled with more than two dozen pictures of President Ronald Reagan, Romney gave a shout-out to the tea party protesters and spoke about his new book, "No Apologies: The Case for American Greatness." (It is slated to be released by St. Martin's Press in March.)

He also said the Republican Party needed to build support among young people, women and Latinos. "We need to make sure they know there are conservatives and that we are right," he said.

Fox News Poll: Approval of President Obama Hits New Low - 46%

(foxnews).President Obama's approval rating has hit a new low of 46 percent, according to a FOX News poll released Thursday. An equal number -- 46 percent -- disapprove of the job he's doing.

Breaking down the numbers by political party shows how sharply split American voters are over the president's job performance. While 85 percent of Democrats approve of their party leader, 80 percent of Republicans and 51 percent of independents disapprove.

Overall, a 57 percent majority says President Obama is providing the kind of leadership they expected, while 17 percent say he is a stronger leader than expected and 23 percent say he's a weaker leader. When this question was asked about President George W. Bush early in his first term, 68 percent said his leadership was what they expected, 14 percent said he was a stronger leader than expected and 13 percent a weaker leader (July 2001).

Despite the drop in Obama's approval rating, the president continues to outperform the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue. More than twice as many Americans disapprove (63 percent) as approve (26 percent) of the job Congress is doing.

Moreover, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's favorable rating is still in the doldrums, with a 28 percent minority of Americans saying they have a positive view of her and 50 percent holding a negative view. While half of Democrats (50 percent) have a favorable opinion of Pelosi, majorities of Republicans (77 percent) and independents (58 percent) view her unfavorably.

For President Obama, 54 percent of voters have a favorable opinion and 42 percent unfavorable. When he took office in January, 76 percent had a favorable view and 15 percent unfavorable.

When asked about next year's Congressional elections, there's a split similar to the president's job rating. If the election were held today, 39 percent say they would vote for the Democratic candidate to help Obama pass his policies and 42 percent say they would back the Republican to provide a check on Obama's power. For 15 percent it is too soon to say.

Less then a Yr to go and Rubio is closing the gap dramatically in FL primary; Huckabee: Rubio could be President

The new Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll of the Florida Republican Senate primary finds conservative former state House Speaker Marco Rubio catching up on moderate Gov. Charlie Crist.

The numbers: Crist 47%, Rubio 37%. Way back in January, Crist was ahead by 57%-11%.

Crist became vulnerable to a conservative primary challenge when he endorsed the stimulus package, and even hugged President Obama. He has since denied that he endorsed it, despite all evidence to the contrary.

(GOP12).Mike Huckabee to WOKV's Rich Jones at a book signing in Orlando yesterday:

".... I think the guy could be President one day. I don't want to doom him, but I think he's got all the goods.

.... I expect him to end up getting the nomination to be Florida's next Senator, and one of America's future Presidents."

Palin take on Obama's foriegn policy - on Hannity

Is Obama giving US jews a cold shoulder? WH shirnks Chanuka party

(Politico).The White House's forthcoming state dinner with the Prime Minister of India is expected to be larger than those of President Barack Obama's predecessor, George W. Bush. But another upcoming White House event will be smaller than in years past: The White House's annual Hanukkah party.

The guest list is expected to be shrunk by more than half, according to the Jerusalem Post. "Though several Jewish leaders expressed understanding for the economic and other reasons behind the cut, they acknowledged that it would likely help feed feelings in some quarters of the American Jewish community that the White House is giving them the cold shoulder."

The move comes on the heels of Obama's cancellation of an appearance before the General Assembly of North American Jewish Federations last week.

The White House's decision is likely a response to tough economic times and a desire to keep the holiday festivities reasonable.

A White House official told the Post that Obama "looks forward to celebrating Hanukkah at the White House and having many members of the Jewish American community at that event."

NYT: Giuliani has Decided Not to Run for Governor of NY, eyeing a Senate run

(NYT).Former Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani has decided not to run for governor of New York next year after months of mulling a candidacy, according to people who have been told of the decision.It remains unclear if the former mayor is considering any other political race in 2010.

His decision is a blow to many Republican leaders, who had viewed Mr. Giuliani as the strongest potential candidate in a year in which voter anger and anti-Albany sentiment appeared to be swelling.

It was not clear what prompted the decision, but the prospect of potentially facing Attorney General Andrew M. Cuomo, who is quietly planning his own run for governor on the Democratic ticket, may not have appealed to Mr. Giuliani, who suffered a bruising defeat in the 2008 Republican presidential primary. While many political analysts believe Mr. Giuliani would have comfortably beaten Gov. David A. Paterson, he would likely have faced an uphill battle against Mr. Cuomo, one of the most popular politicians in the state.

(nydailynews).Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani has decided not to run for governor next - but will run for U.S. Senate instead, sources told the Daily News.

"In the next 48 hours he will announce that he will not run for governor, but will run for the Senate," said a source familiar with the thing of the former mayor and failed presidential candidate.

The source said Giuliani will run against Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand in 2010 to fill out the remaining two years of Hillary Clinton's term.

If elected, the source said, he would use that as a stepping stone to run for President in 2012 - and would not run for re-election to the Senate. A Giuliani spokeswoman downplayed the reports.

"Rudy has a history of making up his own mind and has no problem speaking it," she said. "When Mayor Giuliani makes a decision about serving in public office, he will inform New Yorkers on his own."

Romney Op-Ed on Afganistan - The cost of on-the-job training

(Mitt Romney-POLITICO 44).During the presidential campaign, many Americans thought that Barack Obama’s lack of leadership experience would not prevent him from being an effective president. His eloquence, his insistence that, yes, he could solve any problem and his image, so artfully crafted by his advertising team, led by David Axelrod, convinced many that hope could trump demonstrated ability. It has not. Nowhere is the evidence more apparent than in his mismanagement of the conflict in Afghanistan.

In March, not long after taking office, President Obama explained his convictions regarding the conflict. He charged that “the terrorists who planned and supported the Sept. 11 attacks are in Pakistan and Afghanistan.” Further, “if the Afghan government falls to the Taliban, that country will again be a base for terrorists who want to kill as many of our people as they possibly can.” And he concluded: “To succeed, we and our friends and allies must reverse the Taliban’s gains and promote a more capable and accountable Afghan government.” What followed this bold and definitive goal was the classic failing of people without real leadership experience: the inability to do what is necessary to achieve one’s objective.

The president refused to focus on what was most important. He took on so many tasks that he underinvested in the most critical ones. The restructuring of the entire health care system and his cap-and-trade proposal eclipsed the economy and the war. Investor Warren Buffett, the “sage of Omaha,” counseled him against such a foolhardy agenda, but Buffett’s wisdom was no match for the heady prospect of all-encompassing change.

So it was that in the first 100 days after his appointment in June of Gen. Stanley McChrystal as commander of U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan, Obama met with the general only once. After the press took note of it, the president squeezed in a mere 25 minutes for McChrystal when he was in Copenhagen to pitch Chicago’s Olympics bid. In the annals of American history, it is certain that no wartime president has ever spent less time with his generals than Obama has.

A full year after being elected, Obama still does not have a strategy for Afghanistan. His apologists explain that rather than rush a decision, it is better to get it right. But at some point, deliberation, if it goes on too long, becomes indecision. It is fair to ask, What has he been doing for the past 12 months that took precedence over his responsibility for our soldiers?

The answer is that he made 30 or more campaign trips for the Democratic Party and its candidates, including five events for defeated New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine alone. He repeatedly traveled around the country to keynote campaign-style town hall meetings that were carefully choreographed by his communications advisers. He appears to want to do what he knows best: campaign, rather than engage in what he was elected to do — lead and govern.

While he was busy campaigning in the U.S., the president ignored the election in Afghanistan and took wholly inadequate measures to ensure a valid outcome, even as he must have known that a legitimate government was essential to our success. Because Obama left so critical a matter to chance, we are left with a fraudulently elected regime, which is accused of rampant corruption. Thus, the prospects for our success have been greatly diminished.

With the McChrystal report in his hands since August, the president has finally been spending more time in the situation room. Surely his deliberations have not been speeded by the presence of Axelrod, the president’s campaign adman. Polls, politics and perspectives on what the TV networks may think have no place at the national security table. Communications staff should be informed of security decisions after they are made, not invited to be a party to them.

During my career in business and government, and in running the Olympics, I made many instructive mistakes and learned the lessons that come with experience. Obama is making those mistakes in his first real leadership position, and because that position is president of the United States, the consequences of his mistakes are sobering. The lives of our soldiers, the war against violent jihadism and the future of millions of Afghans are in the balance.

Obama getting ready to be defeated and be a 1 term President....

Wednesday, November 18, 2009

Palin: Obama has no right to restrict Israel expand settlements

(ABCnews, Bibireport).In an interview with ABC News' Barbara Walters, Sarah Palin, the former GOP vice presidential candidate, gave her policy recommendations, weighing in on issues in the Middle East, U.S. strategy in Afghanistan and more.

Palin, whose book, "Going Rogue: An American Life," hit bookshelves today, took aim at the Obama administration's stance on Israeli settlements in the Palestinian territories.

"I disagree with the Obama administration on that," Palin told Walters. "I believe that the Jewish settlements should be allowed to be expanded upon, because that population of Israel is, is going to grow. More and more Jewish people will be flocking to Israel in the days and weeks and months ahead. And I don't think that the Obama administration has any right to tell Israel that the Jewish settlements cannot expand."


SurveyUSA Poll: Americans believe Romney would be the best Republican President

Which of these Republicans would make a better president?

* Mitt Romney 25%
* Mike Huckabee 19%
* Sarah Palin 14%
* Newt Gingrich 11%

Among Conservatives
* Mitt Romney 27%
* Mike Huckabee 23%
* Sarah Palin 18%
* Newt Gingrich 12%

Among Republicans
* Mitt Romney 31%
* Mike Huckabee 26%
* Sarah Palin 13%
* Newt Gingrich 12%

Among Independents
* Mitt Romney 20%
* Newt Gingrich 19%
* Mike Huckabee 18%
* Sarah Palin 12%

Among Democrats
* Mitt Romney 29%
* Sarah Palin 15%
* Mike Huckabee 14%
* Newt Gingrich 7%

In Newsmax interview - Palin Slams Obama for Bowing, Breaking Promises

In an exclusive Newsmax interview, former vice-presidential candidate Sarah Palin on Tuesday sharply criticized President Obama's deep bow to the emperor of Japan, and charged Democrats "purposefully" are holding back details on their healthcare reform proposals from the American people to avoid an open debate.

On tour promoting her best-selling book, “Going Rogue: An American Life,” the former Alaska governor also told Newsmax she was so embarrassed by a Newsweek magazine cover depicting her in short running shorts that she sent an e-mail to her family saying "I almost feel like I have to apologize."

Palin cited the contrast between Obama's comportment in bowing to Japanese royalty and the leadership style of former President Ronald Reagan.

"There is where his steel spine strengthened our entire nation," she said of the Republican icon. "The leadership he provided, where he allowed us to believe in ourselves as a superpower — not in an abusive way as a superpower, but as a power and a light and a hope for the rest of the world.

“That allowed us to be a healthier, safer, and more generous nation to help other nations. So those things that Ronald Reagan did . . . he said on national security issues, he said you know: 'We win. They lose.' Leadership like that we need today. [It] allows a very clear path in front of us we'd be foolish not to follow."

In criticizing the bow, Palin underscored the distinction between Reagan's view of American exceptionalism and President Obama's efforts to cast America as but one member of the community of nations.

"That [bow] made me and many of us uncomfortable, and I don't think it was just an accidental breach of protocol, because we've seen it before with one of the Saudi leaders, too," Palin told Newsmax. "I think it goes along with that same mode of operation that was apologizing for who America is. In order to build relationships with other countries and strengthen our allies and allow more alliances across the globe, we don't need to apologize for who we are. In fact, I think we would be respected to an even greater degree if we exerted more of the diplomatic power that, again, Ronald Reagan did."

Palin, who was a lightning rod for criticism during the presidential campaign, warned that America is in "a dangerous place economically" because Congress is debating healthcare reforms that would affect up to one-sixth of the U.S. economy, without keeping the public informed about exactly what provisions are being proposed. And she doesn't think that void of information is accidental, either.

"There are so many questions right now that I'm like every other American," Palin told Newsmax, "just kind of scratching my head saying, 'When are we going to get the answers so that we can debate this very responsibly and very intelligently?'

"I think it's purposeful that some in Washington, D.C., don't want us to have all of the answers, so that the debate is more nebulous and puts more of the generalities out there. Even knowing what we do know about it though, I think it is a very dangerous place for Americans to be, to be told that the only solutions to the healthcare challenges in our country . . . is that government has to take it over."

Quinnipiac: Obama Approval Dips Below 50% For First Time

President Barack Obama's job approval rating is 48 - 42 percent, the first time he has slipped below the 50 percent threshold nationally, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Support for the war in Afghanistan and approval of President Obama's handling of the war also is down in the last month, and Republican support for the war is more than twice as strong as Democratic support.

American voters say 48 - 41 percent that fighting the war in Afghanistan is the right thing to do, down from 52 - 37 percent in an October 7 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. Voters disapprove 49 - 38 percent of the President's handling of the war there, down from 42 - 40 percent approval in October.

But voters say 65 - 29 percent, including 68 - 25 percent among military households, that eliminating the threat of terrorists operating from Afghanistan "is a worthwhile goal for American troops to fight and possibly die for," compared to 65 - 28 percent last month.

Voters say 47 - 42 percent that President Obama should send 40,000 more combat troops to Afghanistan as the military commanders on the ground have requested. Only 27 percent of Democrats want more troops, compared to 68 percent of Republicans. Similarly, 68 percent of Republicans, but only 31 percent of Democrats, think the United States is doing the right thing fighting in Afghanistan.

"Increasingly, the President finds himself with two different coalitions, one that backs him on domestic matters and a completely different one that backs him on Afghanistan. That could create a challenge to his considerable political skills," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

CBS poll: Obama's Approval Rating Slips to 53%

(CBS) .President Barack Obama is being greeted warmly in China, but back in the U.S. his overall approval rating has slipped to 53 percent, according to a new CBS News poll.

Approval for Mr. Obama's handling of the situation in Afghanistan has dropped as well as more Americans now disapprove than approve.

However, a majority of Americans still approve of the way Mr. Obama is handling his job as president, but this percentage is down three points. Fifty-three percent of Americans approve of how he's handling his job, down from 56 percent last month.

The president's approval rating has dropped seven points among independents. Forty-five percent of independents now approve of how the president is handling his job. Last month, a majority of 52 percent approved.

Assessments of how Mr. Obama is handling the war in Afghanistan have become more negative since early October. Thirty-eight percent now approve of how President Obama is handling the war - but even more, 43 percent, disapprove. Disapproval has risen nine points, from 34 percent last month.

Again, most of the change has occurred among independents. Last month, 44 percent of independents approved and 36 percent disapproved of the job Mr. Obama was doing on Afghanistan. Now, more independents disapprove than approve: 49 percent disapprove, and just 30 percent approve.

Monday, November 16, 2009

CBS poll: 1 in 4 Have Favorable View of Palin; 48% of Republicans don't want Palin to run in 2012

(CBS).She may be among the biggest names in politics at the moment, but former Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin is not exactly America's sweetheart.

Just 23 percent of those surveyed in a new CBS News poll have a favorable view of the former Alaska governor. That matches her favorable rating in July, when Palin announced she was resigning from her job as governor.

Thirty-eight percent, meanwhile, have an unfavorable view of Palin -- also roughly matching her July rating. Another 37 percent say they are undecided or haven't heard enough, despite the spotlight on Palin in recent days tied to the imminent publication of her memoir, "Going Rogue."

Unsurprisingly, Palin is far more popular with Republicans than Democrats. Fifty-two percent of Republicans have a favorable view of her, while 16 percent have an unfavorable view. By contrast, just four percent of Democrats view Palin favorably, while 57 percent say their opinion is not favorable.

Among independents, Palin has a net negative rating, with 21 percent viewing her favorably and 36 percent viewing her unfavorably.

VIEWS OF SARAH PALIN - BY POLITICAL PARTY
Rep Dem Ind
Favorable 52% 4% 21%
Not favorable 16% 57% 36%
Undecided/Haven't Heard Enough 32% 37% 40%


Most Americans do not want to see Palin run for president in 2012. Two in three say they don't want to see a Palin run, while 24 percent say they would like to see her jump into the race.

Republicans are divided: Forty-four percent want Palin to run, but even more -- 48 percent -- do not. Democrats, independents and even conservatives oppose a Palin run, while white evangelicals favor it by a slim margin, 48 percent to 42 percent.

WOULD YOU LIKE SARAH PALIN TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT IN 2012?
All Rep Dem Ind
Yes 24% 44% 9% 26%
No 66% 48% 83% 62%


Forty-three percent of Republicans think Palin would be an effective president, an improvement of ten points from the summer. But thirty-nine percent say she would not be.

Just 11 percent of Democrats and 29 percent of independents believe Palin could be an effective president. Overall, 26 percent of Americans say she could be effective in the job.

WOULD PALIN HAVE THE ABILITY TO BE AN EFFECTIVE PRESIDENT?
All Rep Dem Ind Cons
Yes 26% 43% 11% 29% 46%
No 62% 39% 84% 58% 43%

Bob Schieffer: Sarah Palin has no future in politics

“I think she’s going to sell a lot of books. I think she’ll be a great attraction as an amusement. She’s interesting, she’s a celebrity. But I can’t imagine that she has much future in politics, I really don’t.”

Palin on Oprah: Economy Beat GOP Ticket

(Newsmax).One day before the official release of her best-selling memoir "Going Rogue: An American Life," Sarah Palin sat down on Monday with Oprah Winfrey to discuss her book, her family, and her campaign as John McCain's running mate.

In the wide-ranging interview, Palin also spoke about her wardrobe controversy, her teenage daughter's pregnancy, her much-maligned interview with Katie Couric, why the McCain-Palin ticket lost, and more. Some highlights:

# McCain advisers forced the Palin family to overhaul their wardrobe when they arrived in Minneapolis for the Republican National convention in September 2008.

"I thought this was like one of those relationships you have, when we're young, and somebody says, 'I just love you the way that you are; now let me change you,'" Palin said.

# The ultimate showdown with McCain staffers came on election night when she was told she could not deliver a concession speech before McCain spoke.

"I was disappointed that the explanation I was given [was] that . . . V.P. candidates never give a speech on election night. I knew that was false because I have seen it happen. In fact four years prior, of course, that had happened."

# Even if Palin had been allowed to be more herself during the campaign, she said, it is likely that the Republican presidential ticket would have lost.

"The reason that we lost: The economy changed under a Republican administration," Palin said. "People were sincerely looking for change. They were quite concerned about the road that America was on with its economy. They did not want more of the same. They did not want status quo. And I think, unfortunately, our ticket represented what was perceived as status quo."

# Despite plaudits from campaign advisers who said she'd done well in her September 2008 interview with CBS's Katie Couric, Palin knew better.

When Oprah said she wanted to talk about the Couric interview, Palin laughed and said: "Must we?"

Among several missteps in the interview, Palin asserted that Alaska's proximity to Russia enhanced her foreign policy credentials. Critics seized on the interview as evidence that she wasn't qualified to be president if something were to happen to McCain.

Palin told Oprah: "The campaign said, 'Right on. Good. You're showing your independence. This is what American needs to see. It was a good interview.' And of course I'm thinking, 'If you thought that was a good interview, I don't know what a bad interview is.' Because I knew it wasn't a good interview."

She also said that Couric, whom she referred to as "the perky one," annoyed her by "badgering" her during the interview.

# Palin still considers Levi Johnston, the former fiancé of her daughter Bristol and the father of Bristol's son, "part of the family."

Johnston has complained that he was treated as an outcast following Palin's unsuccessful run for vice president, and claimed that Palin resigned from her governor's post in July to make money.

Oprah asked whether Levi would be invited to Thanksgiving dinner.

Palin laughed again and said: "That's a great question. It's lovely to think that he would ever even consider such a thing. Because of course he is a part of the family and you want to bring him in the fold, kind of under your wing. And he needs that, Oprah. I think he needs to know that he is loved. And he has the most beautiful child.

"This can all work out for good, it really can. We don't have to keep going down this road of controversy and drama all the time. We're not really into the drama. We have other things to concentrate on and do."

She also said she will "continue to pray for Levi."

# When Palin got a surprise phone call from the McCain campaign asking whether she'd like to be on the Republican presidential ticket, she had no doubts that she was ready for the challenge.

"When I got the call, it was not such a shocking call to me . . . I felt quite confident in my abilities and my executive experience knowing that this is an executive administrative job. I was happy to get in there and contribute."

# But Palin said she was stunned that McCain aides knew her then-17-year-old daughter Bristol was pregnant, a fact that Palin had yet to disclose back in Alaska.

"I was surprised, too, that we didn't handle that issue, that challenge, better," she said. "If we were given that allowance to deal with the issue in a more productive way, we perhaps could have sent a better message: This is not to be glamorized, not to be emulated."

Palin said Bristol was "devastated" and in tears when she found that her pregnancy was on the news, and contended that the press exhibited a "double standard" by focusing on the Palin family and accepting Barack Obama's demand that his family was off-limits to the press.

# Palin brushed aside talk about a possible campaign for the GOP presidential nomination in 2012.

"I am dealing with so many issues that are important . . . and what I am finding, clearer and clearer every day, what I am seeing is that you don't need a title to make a difference."

When Oprah asked if Palin would tell her whether she intends to run in 2012, Palin got a laugh from the studio audience when she said, "No, I wouldn't."

Mitt Romney the most qualified to takeover Obama's job in '12 , Palin loved by Republicans but not viewed as qualified

(CNN) – Fewer than three in 10 Americans think Sarah Palin's qualified to be president, according to a new national poll - the least of any of the five potential candidates included in the survey.

But another woman tops that list in the CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Monday: two-thirds of the public thinks that Secretary of State HIllary Clinton's qualified for the Oval Office. That's more than Vice President Joe Biden, who's currently next in line for the presidency.

According to the poll, 28 percent of Americans say Palin is qualified to run the White House, with seven in 10 saying the former Alaska governor and 2008 Republican vice presidential nominee is not qualified.

The survey indicates that a majority of Republicans, 54 percent, feel Palin is qualified, with 44 percent indicating she isn't. But only 29 percent of independent voters questioned feel she is qualified to serve as president, with 68 percent disagreeing. According to the poll, nine in 10 Democrats feel Palin is not qualified.

The poll's release comes one day before the release of Palin's book, "Going Rogue: An American Life."

"The perception that Palin is not qualified to be president puts her significantly behind two potential rivals for the GOP nomination in 2012 - Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

According to the survey, nearly half of all Americans think Romney is qualified to be president, with 43 percent feeling the same way about Huckabee. Among Republicans, Palin is still lagging other potential 2012 primary candidates: 63 percent of GOPers think that Romney and Huckabee are qualified, 9 points higher than the number that say the same of Palin.

"Palin has many strengths - recent CNN polls indicate that Americans believe that she is not a typical politician, that she cares about average Americans, and that she is honest and trustworthy," says Holland. "But the perception that she is not qualified for the White House is her biggest Achilles heel."

Karl Rove Slams Obama Bow:The POTUS Simply Can't Get It Right-"Deep bow speaks weakness"


"I think it was inappropriate, look, a slight nod of the head perhaps to the Japanese Emperor, what's that all about, I mean he's not even the Head of State, but that deep bow from the waist actually from the Japanese culture speaks weakness, and look the President of the United States simply can't get it right.

It's a worldwide apology tour, we're sorry, we're wrong and oh incidentally I'm going to bow deeply to the waist to the once divine Japanese Monarchy, I just don't get it, in England they didn't bow, but they bow there. They bowed to the Saudi's, will they bow to the Queen of the Netherlands? Please, get this thing right, I think it is best if American Presidents do what they've always done, which is stand for our small "R" Republican values and do not bow to monarchies"

Sunday, November 15, 2009

Liz Cheney: Whoever Leads GOP in 2012 Will Have to Undo the Damage From Obama’s Disastrous Policies

Palin is great for the GOP, Giuliani says

(CNN) – A prominent, socially moderate Republican said Sunday that former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, who has achieved iconic status with the Republican Party’s conservative base, is an asset to the GOP.

“I think Sarah Palin is great for the Republican Party,” former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani said in an interview that aired on CNN’s State of the Union.

Giuliani said Palin generates a lot of enthusiasm for the party which has struggled to define itself and identify its leading voices after the McCain-Palin ticket lost its White Justify FullHouse bid a year ago.

“She gets a tremendous reception even here in Democratic New York,” Giuliani, who hosted Palin at a New York Yankees game, told CNN’s John King.

“We’re very far away from a 2012 election,” Giuliani added, “Right now, I like figures who are creating interest in the Republican Party.

“Given the decisions that the Obama administration is making, particularly on this area of terrorism which concerns me probably more than any other, we’re going to need some pretty strong alternatives in 2012. I don’t know if it’ll be Sarah Palin or someone else. But right now it’s [about] developing interest in a Republican Party and we need a two-party system and we need a healthy one.”

Giuliani said he had not made any decision yet about whether he will seek the White House again in 2012 or run for New York governor. Asked when he had to make that decision, Giuliani told King “Not today, not this morning.”

Saturday, November 14, 2009

Big bucks for Good luck!! Duval GOP’s Romney Event Shatters Fundraising Records

(Austin Cassidy-The Jacksonville Observer) Jacksonville was the place to be for Florida Republicans Monday night. The Duval County Republican Party announced today that the November 9th event, “An Evening with Governor Mitt Romney Honoring Tom Petway”, was an unparalleled success, topping all previous such events in Northeast Florida.

“The local Republican Party is on fire! Everyone is energized and prepared to turn out the vote in 2010. Thanks to the generosity of our donors – many of whom have never given to the local Party before – and of course our mighty grassroots, we exceeded our goal and raised more $250,000 even in these tough economic times. It’s a new day in the Party. Republicans are demanding victory in 2010,” said Lenny Curry, Chairman of the Duval Republican Party.

State Committeewoman Cindy Graves, who chaired the event, reported record ticket sales. “Republican grassroots leaders from five counties turned out a sell-out crowd of more than 750 and still others clamoring for tickets on Monday. Ticket sales went through the roof after the sweeping victories in Virginia and New Jersey. Judging from the calls, emails and enthusiasm, local Republicans are energized in a way I have never witnessed,” she said.

Curry also praised the unique draw of the event’s keynote speaker and honoree. “Tom Petway is a legend both for his generosity to the GOP and his unwavering support of Jacksonville. Governor Mitt Romney has a unifying message of a strong economy and military coupled with a patriotic view of America. Joined by Republican leaders and elected officials from all over Florida, we celebrated our collective goal of an overwhelming victory for fiscally conservative Republican candidates throughout our state and our nation in 2010,” Curry said.

Giuliani goes nuclear on Obama: 9/11 Trials in NYC Will Lead to More Terrorism

“New York is already a target for terrorists – we announce that every day and talk about it every day. To add something unnecessary to that makes no sense, and the president has made, I believe, an irresponsible decision.”



"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty" (Churchill)