Monday, November 2, 2009

CHRISTIE POLL SURGE CONTINUES: Survey USA Reports Christie +3 ; Quinnipiac poll: Christie +2

(Save Jersey).
From Survey USA:Justify Full On Election Eve in New Jersey, with a New York City team and a Philadelphia team in the World Series, Republican Chris Christie may have slight late momentum in his bid to unseat incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine, according to a SurveyUSA tracking poll conducted for WABC-TV. The candidates remain today within the theoretical margin of sampling error, as they have been in each of SurveyUSA's 5 tracking NJ polls. At the wire, Christie 45%, Corzine 42%. Interviews were conducted Friday 10/30/09 through Sunday 11/01/09. On 2 of the 3 nights, much of NJ was home watching local teams play in the World Series. And: 1 of the 3 nights was Halloween, when families with children are home in uniquely large numbers. As such, results of this survey should be interpreted cautiously: a narrow Corzine victory is not inconsistent with the data, but a narrow Christie win is more consistent with the data.

Christie's advantage among NJ independents grew from 12 points 4 weeks ago to 30 points today. SurveyUSA's interactive tracking graph shows both Corzine and Independent Chris Daggett losing Independent votes to Christie.

From Quinnipiac:
n the see-saw New Jersey Governor's race, Republican challenger Christopher Christie has 42 percent to Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine's 40 points, with 12 percent for independent candidate Christopher Daggett, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Six percent remain undecided.

This compares to a 43 - 38 percent Gov. Corzine lead, with 13 percent for Daggett, in an October 28 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

Among Daggett supporters, 38 percent say they might change their mind: 39 percent say Corzine is their second choice, while 29 percent say Christie is number two.

Only 10 percent of Christie voters and 13 percent of Corzine backers say they might change their mind.

Corzine leads 77 - 6 percent among Democratic likely voters, with 12 percent for Daggett. Christie leads 78 - 10 percent among Republicans, with 9 percent for Daggett, and 47 - 32 percent among independent voters, with 17 percent for Daggett.

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"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty" (Churchill)