(investors.com).The political guns barely fall silent from one campaign before resuming a barrage in the next. They're rumbling now in New Jersey and Virginia — the first skirmish before next year's national midterm elections.
American politics usually stays in a narrow range: Two parties collide and congressional totals don't change much. When changes do occur, it is usually the result of one side's supporters staying home. The effect is an illusion of great swings in the electorate.
The 2008 election followed this pattern in part. A Census Bureau study found that non-Hispanic whites' voting rate declined by 1 percentage point from 2004, and an exit poll by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International showed this group backed John McCain 55% to 43% for Barack Obama.
But America was knocked out of its traditionally tight range in another way. New-entrant voting rates for blacks, Hispanics and Asians each increased by 4 percentage points, and the exit poll showed Obama taking 95%, 65%, and 62% of these groups, respectively.
Barack Obama's 6.3% margin translated into a political landslide, and Democrats won the largest congressional majorities in three decades.
Will next year's election swing just as dramatically — though perhaps in the opposite direction? It's too early to say, but there are reasons to believe it might.
First, Obama was the rare candidate who brought new entrants into the electorate. But without him on the ballot, do these new entrants, outside the tried-and-true supporter base, stay motivated and engaged?
Second, while the economic numbers say the recession may be ending, the job numbers say it's not. Most estimates have unemployment staying around 10% through next year.
Third, the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan are certain to remain. The choice before the president is not ending these engagements, but whether to send more troops to the latter.
Fourth, the administration has invested enormous capital on health care reform, America's difficult domestic task. (There's a reason why presidents from Teddy Roosevelt to Truman to Nixon to Clinton have not succeeded at it.) That issue will reach a crescendo just after this week's election and leave a lasting impression on next year's.
Fifth, Obama was essentially a blank slate in 2008 — one on which people could write their own aspirations. Next November, two years into his presidency, that won't be the case.
Finally, Obama has faced few "surprises," the unforeseen and often untoward events that befall every presidency. Recall that this far into his presidency, George W. Bush had encountered 9/11 and a recession.
American politics usually stays in a narrow range: Two parties collide and congressional totals don't change much. When changes do occur, it is usually the result of one side's supporters staying home. The effect is an illusion of great swings in the electorate.
The 2008 election followed this pattern in part. A Census Bureau study found that non-Hispanic whites' voting rate declined by 1 percentage point from 2004, and an exit poll by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International showed this group backed John McCain 55% to 43% for Barack Obama.
But America was knocked out of its traditionally tight range in another way. New-entrant voting rates for blacks, Hispanics and Asians each increased by 4 percentage points, and the exit poll showed Obama taking 95%, 65%, and 62% of these groups, respectively.
Barack Obama's 6.3% margin translated into a political landslide, and Democrats won the largest congressional majorities in three decades.
Will next year's election swing just as dramatically — though perhaps in the opposite direction? It's too early to say, but there are reasons to believe it might.
First, Obama was the rare candidate who brought new entrants into the electorate. But without him on the ballot, do these new entrants, outside the tried-and-true supporter base, stay motivated and engaged?
Second, while the economic numbers say the recession may be ending, the job numbers say it's not. Most estimates have unemployment staying around 10% through next year.
Third, the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan are certain to remain. The choice before the president is not ending these engagements, but whether to send more troops to the latter.
Fourth, the administration has invested enormous capital on health care reform, America's difficult domestic task. (There's a reason why presidents from Teddy Roosevelt to Truman to Nixon to Clinton have not succeeded at it.) That issue will reach a crescendo just after this week's election and leave a lasting impression on next year's.
Fifth, Obama was essentially a blank slate in 2008 — one on which people could write their own aspirations. Next November, two years into his presidency, that won't be the case.
Finally, Obama has faced few "surprises," the unforeseen and often untoward events that befall every presidency. Recall that this far into his presidency, George W. Bush had encountered 9/11 and a recession.
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