(Pollster analyst).With all but perhaps or or two final polls logged, our trend estimate in New Jersey, as of this writing, stands at a 42.0% to 42.0% deadlock between Corzine and Christie, with Chris Daggett falling to 10.1%. That amazingly close result will likely change if we add another poll or two tomorrow, but a shift of a half point or so in either direction will have little meaning. The polling on this race is as close as it every gets, and as our standard trend line (below) shows, has been for the last few weeks.
The bottom line is that our final estimate is too close, in and of itself, to forecast winner.
But wait. Does our standard trend line ignore a last minute trend to Christie, analogous to the presumed movement to Hillary Clinton in the New Hampshire primary? If you use our chart's Smoothing Tool to change to the "more sensitive" setting (as illustrated below), you will see a hint of a trend toward Christie. The Republican challenger's support ticks up slightly (to 42.5% as of this writing), while Corzine's line moves slightly (to 41.4%).
.....All other things being equal -- and 42.0% to 42.0% is about as equal as they get -- I still tend to give a challenger like Christie the "benefit of the doubt" when up against an incumbent like Corzine even though recent examples of the "incumbent rule" are few and far between. That instinct is reinforced by the large number of voters that are either undecided or still leaning to independent Daggett (with Daggett's support falling) and the fact that no matter how hard pollsters appear to push, Corzine does not seem to rise beyond 42%.
So while the empirical evidence says this race is still too close to call, my hunch is that Christie will emerge the narrow victor.
The bottom line is that our final estimate is too close, in and of itself, to forecast winner.
But wait. Does our standard trend line ignore a last minute trend to Christie, analogous to the presumed movement to Hillary Clinton in the New Hampshire primary? If you use our chart's Smoothing Tool to change to the "more sensitive" setting (as illustrated below), you will see a hint of a trend toward Christie. The Republican challenger's support ticks up slightly (to 42.5% as of this writing), while Corzine's line moves slightly (to 41.4%).
.....All other things being equal -- and 42.0% to 42.0% is about as equal as they get -- I still tend to give a challenger like Christie the "benefit of the doubt" when up against an incumbent like Corzine even though recent examples of the "incumbent rule" are few and far between. That instinct is reinforced by the large number of voters that are either undecided or still leaning to independent Daggett (with Daggett's support falling) and the fact that no matter how hard pollsters appear to push, Corzine does not seem to rise beyond 42%.
So while the empirical evidence says this race is still too close to call, my hunch is that Christie will emerge the narrow victor.
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