Thursday, November 12, 2009

OHIO next on the list to become RED - Quinnipiac poll shows Rep. Portman leading rivals, Obama's numbers very negative

(Quinnipiac).For the first time, Republican Rob Portman is inching ahead of the two Democrats in the 2010 race for Ohio's U.S. Senate seat, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Also for the first time, Ohio voters disapprove 50 - 45 percent of the job President Barack Obama is doing, down from his 53 - 42 percent approval September 16 and 49 - 44 percent approval July 7.

In still another first, voters are split 40 - 40 percent on who is doing a better job handling health care, the President or Congressional Republicans, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh- pe-ack) University survey finds. In a September 16 survey on the same question, Obama was on top 49 - 28 percent.

Ohio voters disapprove 53 - 42 percent of the way the President is handling the economy and disapprove 57 - 36 percent of the way he is handling health care. In September, they approved of his handling of the economy 48 - 46 percent and split on his handling of health care 44 - 45 percent.

"The Democratic wave that swept through Ohio in 2006 and 2008 may be cresting. The Democratic lead in the Governor's and Senate races has evaporated and for the first time President Barack Obama is under water in the most important swing state in the country," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Ohio voters are not happy with the President's handling of health care and the economy. The fact that they now are split whether he or the Republicans in Congress are better able to handle health care should be a very worrisome number at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. since the GOP is still pretty much a four-letter word in most of America."

Independent voters, often the group that decides Ohio elections, disapprove 49 - 45 percent of the overall job Obama is doing and disapprove 54 - 39 percent of his handling of the economy. They disapprove 62 - 34 percent, almost 2-1, of his handling of health care.

"In July, when the President's job approval began falling nationally from the high 50s and low 60s into the low 50s, Ohio was the first place it showed up in the polls," said Brown.

Portman, a former Congressman running for the U.S. Senate in 2010, has small leads over two Democrats, topping Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner 38 - 34 percent and Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher 39 - 36 percent. In the battle for the Democratic Senate nomination, Fisher gets 24 percent to Brunner's 22 percent, with 51 percent undecided. Portman leads car dealer Tom Ganley 26 - 7 percent in a GOP primary with 64 percent undecided.

"None of the Senate candidates are very well known, but what is significant is that until now Democrats were winning all the Senate matchups. Clearly there is an at least temporary swing toward the GOP in Ohio. Whether it continues is anyone's guess," said Brown.

Ohio voters oppose Obama's health care plan 55 - 36 percent, with independents against it 57 - 33 percent. By a 61 - 35 percent margin, voters don't think Congress should approve a health care overhaul if it only gets Democratic votes.

But Ohio voters support 53 - 40 percent giving people the option of a government health insurance plan. Independent voters support this public option 55 - 38 percent.

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"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty" (Churchill)