Jonah Goldberg-USAtoday).Today is Election Day. In Washington's corridors of power, politicians and pundits are pacing like expectant fathers. Fair or not, today is being cast as a referendum on the Obama administration's first year in office and a window to the crucial midterm elections next year.If Republicans do well particularly in the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial contests moderate Democrats might go wobbly in their support for President Obama's agenda.
Democrats might like health care reform, but they like getting re-elected even more.
A Democratic loss in New Jersey, one of the country's most reliably Democratic states and where Obama won by roughly 15 points in 2008, would be an unspinnable debacle for the Democrats. That's why Obama has, like Johnny Sack from The Sopranos, all but moved to New Jersey to oversee his interests there. Even if the unpopular incumbent, Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine, manages to squeak by with a victory, the message for Democrats might not be all that heartening.
A former head of Goldman Sachs, Corzine has spent millions of his own money to defeat his Republican opponent in a state where Democrats wildly outnumber Republicans (no Republican has won a statewide race in 12 years). He has recruited not just Obama but also Vice President Biden, Bill Clinton and other big names to bail him out. If it takes that much to drag Corzine's political carcass across the finish line, what will it take in far more competitive contests next year?
The Democratic majority in the House comprises seats held by representatives who won districts that either voted for Sen. John McCain of Arizona for president or were otherwise historically Republican.
One might just look to Virginia to get a better sense of the mood in those kinds of districts. The commonwealth was the crown jewel of the supposed Democratic realignment. A once deeply red state, Virginia has elected a string of Democrats of late. Obama's 7-point margin of victory was alleged proof that Virginia was now a lean-Democrat state.
But it appears that Republican Bob McDonnell will run away with the gubernatorial race,perhaps carrying all the down-ticket races on his coattails as well.
Though Washington is mostly concerned with what today's elections will mean for Obama and his agenda, the truth is no one knows. His presidency certainly weighs on larger issues.
Even so, the more clear cut, and more interesting, lesson to take away from Election Day — no matter what the results — is that conservatives just aren't going away and that, despite its best efforts to commit suicide, the GOP will not die.
After Obama's presidential election, a cottage industry of punditry sprang up to forge a new conventional wisdom. It goes something like this: The Republican Party has been discredited by the Bush presidency, congressional scandals and overspending. Worse, it is "out of touch" due to the stranglehold of knuckle-dragging, troglodytic, Bible-thumping, gun-nuts and greedy capitalists. Confronted with the divine light of Obama, these hissing conservatives must scurry to the shadows like vampires fearful of the burning rays of the sun. The only chance for Republican survival is to embrace moderation, compromise and, in some cases, what Barry Goldwater called "me-too Republicanism."
Whatever the merits of this advice, two things are now quite clear.
First, most conservatives and Republicans have next to no desire to follow it. And, second, it looks like they're right not to.
The Virginia contest alone shows that much of this talk about "moderates" vs. "extremists" or "pragmatists" vs. "ideologues" within the GOP was nonsense.
McDonnell is socially and economically very conservative, but he has dominated the race by focusing on mainstream issues such as transportation, taxes and the economy. Meanwhile, Obama, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid have been working overtime to recast the Democrats as big spenders more committed to an ideological agenda than setting the country right. As a result, independents — the same voters who delivered the election for Obama — are now flocking to the Republicans. McDonnell beats Democrat Creigh Deeds among independents by 2-1.
The best illustration of the conservative comeback is the special election for the 23rd congressional district in New York (a district Obama carried in 2008). Before last Saturday, the race was being cast a "civil war" on the right because many conservatives were supporting not the Republican nominee, Dierdre Scozzafava, but Doug Hoffman, a Republican who switched to the Conservative Party ticket when he failed to get the nomination. Scozzafava is a very liberal, pro-choice Republican, the sort of candidate the conventional wisdom says the right must embrace to stay relevant. Hoffman is a mainstream conservative. On Saturday, Scozzafava dropped out of the race because Hoffman was crushing her in the polls. Most tellingly, it was Hoffman's support among independents that gave him the advantage.
There's more than one way to read all of this. Independents might just want to be a counterweight to the Democratic Party's lurch to the left. Corzine and Deeds might just be lousy candidates in a bad economy.
All of that's true. But it's also true that the GOP is not much interested in becoming a Democrat-lite party, and it seems voters don't want it to, either.
Democrats might like health care reform, but they like getting re-elected even more.
A Democratic loss in New Jersey, one of the country's most reliably Democratic states and where Obama won by roughly 15 points in 2008, would be an unspinnable debacle for the Democrats. That's why Obama has, like Johnny Sack from The Sopranos, all but moved to New Jersey to oversee his interests there. Even if the unpopular incumbent, Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine, manages to squeak by with a victory, the message for Democrats might not be all that heartening.
A former head of Goldman Sachs, Corzine has spent millions of his own money to defeat his Republican opponent in a state where Democrats wildly outnumber Republicans (no Republican has won a statewide race in 12 years). He has recruited not just Obama but also Vice President Biden, Bill Clinton and other big names to bail him out. If it takes that much to drag Corzine's political carcass across the finish line, what will it take in far more competitive contests next year?
The Democratic majority in the House comprises seats held by representatives who won districts that either voted for Sen. John McCain of Arizona for president or were otherwise historically Republican.
One might just look to Virginia to get a better sense of the mood in those kinds of districts. The commonwealth was the crown jewel of the supposed Democratic realignment. A once deeply red state, Virginia has elected a string of Democrats of late. Obama's 7-point margin of victory was alleged proof that Virginia was now a lean-Democrat state.
But it appears that Republican Bob McDonnell will run away with the gubernatorial race,perhaps carrying all the down-ticket races on his coattails as well.
Though Washington is mostly concerned with what today's elections will mean for Obama and his agenda, the truth is no one knows. His presidency certainly weighs on larger issues.
Even so, the more clear cut, and more interesting, lesson to take away from Election Day — no matter what the results — is that conservatives just aren't going away and that, despite its best efforts to commit suicide, the GOP will not die.
After Obama's presidential election, a cottage industry of punditry sprang up to forge a new conventional wisdom. It goes something like this: The Republican Party has been discredited by the Bush presidency, congressional scandals and overspending. Worse, it is "out of touch" due to the stranglehold of knuckle-dragging, troglodytic, Bible-thumping, gun-nuts and greedy capitalists. Confronted with the divine light of Obama, these hissing conservatives must scurry to the shadows like vampires fearful of the burning rays of the sun. The only chance for Republican survival is to embrace moderation, compromise and, in some cases, what Barry Goldwater called "me-too Republicanism."
Whatever the merits of this advice, two things are now quite clear.
First, most conservatives and Republicans have next to no desire to follow it. And, second, it looks like they're right not to.
The Virginia contest alone shows that much of this talk about "moderates" vs. "extremists" or "pragmatists" vs. "ideologues" within the GOP was nonsense.
McDonnell is socially and economically very conservative, but he has dominated the race by focusing on mainstream issues such as transportation, taxes and the economy. Meanwhile, Obama, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid have been working overtime to recast the Democrats as big spenders more committed to an ideological agenda than setting the country right. As a result, independents — the same voters who delivered the election for Obama — are now flocking to the Republicans. McDonnell beats Democrat Creigh Deeds among independents by 2-1.
The best illustration of the conservative comeback is the special election for the 23rd congressional district in New York (a district Obama carried in 2008). Before last Saturday, the race was being cast a "civil war" on the right because many conservatives were supporting not the Republican nominee, Dierdre Scozzafava, but Doug Hoffman, a Republican who switched to the Conservative Party ticket when he failed to get the nomination. Scozzafava is a very liberal, pro-choice Republican, the sort of candidate the conventional wisdom says the right must embrace to stay relevant. Hoffman is a mainstream conservative. On Saturday, Scozzafava dropped out of the race because Hoffman was crushing her in the polls. Most tellingly, it was Hoffman's support among independents that gave him the advantage.
There's more than one way to read all of this. Independents might just want to be a counterweight to the Democratic Party's lurch to the left. Corzine and Deeds might just be lousy candidates in a bad economy.
All of that's true. But it's also true that the GOP is not much interested in becoming a Democrat-lite party, and it seems voters don't want it to, either.
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