Monday, August 31, 2009

Zogby: Obama Approval Plummets to 42 Percent


President Barack Obama's job approval rating is down to 42%, with a decline in approval from Democrats.


The latest Zogby Interactive poll of 4,518 likely voters conducted from August 28-31 found 48% disapprove and 42% approve of the job Obama is doing. The poll found 75% of Democrats approve of Obama's performance, a drop of 13 points among Democrats from an interactive poll done July 21-24 of this year. That same poll found 48% of all likely voters approving of Obama's job performance, and 49% disapproving.

In the most recent poll, 8% of Republicans and 37% of Independents approve of Obama's job performance. Both are down slightly from six weeks ago; two points among Republicans and three among Independents.

The Aug. 28-31 poll also found that:

* 17% give Obama an excellent job rating, 25% rate him good, 16% fair and 41% poor. Combining the two highest and lowest rankings shows 42% rating Obama positively and 57% negatively. (This is the standard Zogby International has used for many years in measuring job performance.)

* Likely voters are closely split on whether they have a favorable opinion of Obama, with 50% favorable and 48% unfavorable. Democrats are more positive about Obama personally than they are of his job performance, with 85% rating him favorably.

* 52% of all likely voters are proud to have Obama as President, and 35% are ashamed. The percentage of those proud is unchanged from six weeks ago.

Mitt Romney leads the prediction market for 2012 with a chance of 12.6%

Who will win the 2012 U.S. Republican Party presidential nomination?

*Mitt Romney $12.60
*Anyone not listed $8.44
*Mike Huckabee $7.46
*Sarah Palin $5.96
*Tim Pawlenty $5.00

Not That far down - Obama has to slip to a 45% approval rate to risk Re-election

(Fivthirtyeight via Race42012).Nate Silver has completed another insightful analysis regarding the effect of President Obama’s Gallup approval ratings on Congressional mid-terms and his re-election chances:

"Barack Obama's approval rating had dropped to 50 percent in the latest Gallup poll...

The thing is, though, that Obama's approval rating haven fallen to 50 percent is not particularly newsworthy. There's no reason that a drop from 51 percent to 50 percent, or from 50 percent to 49 percent, means anything particularly more than a drop from 58 percent to 57 percent, or from 37 percent to 36 percent.

First of all, although I'm on record as being quite pessimistic about what's liable to happen to the Democrats in 2010, odds are that Obama's approval will have to be somewhat worse than 50 percent for the Democrats to lose the House. The relationship between Presidential approval and his party's fate at the midterm elections is quite linear. An approval rating of 50 percent would typically be associated with a loss of about 26 seats.

The Democrats, however, currently have a 78-seat advantage in the House, meaning that it would take a 39-seat loss for them to lose control of the chamber. The over-under for how unpopular Obama would have to be in order to be more likely than not to cost his party those seats is not 50 percent -- it's probably more like 42 percent....

Likewise, Obama can probably afford an approval rating below 50 percent and still be a favorite to win re-election in 2012. George W. Bush won in 2004 with an approval rating of 48 percent, and Harry Truman won in what was considered a huge upset in 1948 with an approval number that had last been tested at 39 percent..

Against Sarah Palin, frankly, Obama could conceivably win re-election with an approval rating well into the 40's and possibly even into the 30's. He'll have less margin of error, potentially, if the GOP nominates someone like Mitt Romney .But again, there's nothing particularly special that happens at 50 percent. Something like 45 percent, which is where Gerald Ford was when he lost to Jimmy Carter by two points in 1976, might be the more relevant number.

A quick-and-dirty probit analysis, based on a dataset and placing slightly more weight on recent elections, puts the breakeven number at 44 percent, and suggests that a President at 50 percent approval is as much as a 90 percent bet to win a second term:

Did Ted Kennedy worry about debating Romney?

(GOP12).The New York Times re-runs an interesting interview from 1995, in which Vicki Kennedy and Ted Kennedy's biographer, Adam Clymer, discuss the relatively close 1994 duel with Mitt Romney.

Among other things, there was some concern over the debates.

Mr. Clymer: One friend of his [Kennedy's] told me that he was, too, not that he was afraid to debate, but reading all these stories and clips saying about how good Romney was, but he was a little concerned about it, and how well he could handle him.

Mrs. Kennedy: That Teddy was?

Mr. Clymer: Yeah. Not true?

Mrs. Kennedy: I just think that's very funny. No, obviously he took it seriously and he prepared. I mean I know him when he prepares and he knows himself when he prepares, and when he was ready to go do his thing, two days before the debate, he was brushing his teeth in Boston and he just apropos of nothing, turned to me and he said, "I'm ready, you know." And I said, "Yeah, I know." Because I did. I knew. You could just see it.

Mr. Clymer: No, I don't mean that late because by that point he was up there campaigning, and had done the Faneuil Hall and all of that. But I mean a little bit earlier.

Another Senator, a friend of his said that he was a little worried about Romney, in debating him.

GOP would repeal health bill if they win in 2010

(TheHill).Republicans will repeal healthcare reform legislation if they win control of Congress because of that bill, a key Republican pledged late Sunday.

The health bill is "dead on arrival" in Congress, said Rep. Joe Barton (R-Texas), the ranking member of the House Energy and Commerce committee, said during an interview on Fox News.

"If they somehow manage to get the votes and get enough Democrats to walk the plank and commit suicide, in the next Congress, I'll be chairman Joe Barton of the Energy and Commerce committee, and we'll repeal it," Barton said.

Republicans have shown optimism at picking up seats in the House and Senate in the 2010 midterm elections, largely as a byproduct of the contentious healthcare debate that has played out across the country.

Barton, whose committee is one of the three key House committees to craft healthcare legislation, suggested the current bill is basically not viable in its current form.

"Take the current bill and just tweak the public option and call it a 'deal' -- you put lipstick on a pig, but it's still a pig," he said of the potential changes that could be made to win lawmakers' votes. "I think this bill's dead on arrival."

53% Disapprove Obama's job handling,66% independents and 19% Dems disapprove; Daily approval at 46%

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows that 30% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Forty-one percent (41%) Strongly Disapprove.

Overall, 46% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the President's performance. That’s the lowest level of total approval yet measured for Obama. Fifty-three percent (53%) now disapprove. Eighty-one percent (81%) of Democrats approve while 83% of Republicans disapprove. As for those not affiliated with either major party, 66% disapprove.

Sunday, August 30, 2009

Slumpy honeymoon - What it took for Bush over 3 years, happens to Obama in less then 8 Month

(Gallup).Barack Obama's latest job approval rating is 50%, according to Aug. 25-28 Gallup Daily tracking. Should his rating continue its downward trend and fall below 50%, he would -- like most post-World War II presidents -- have less-than-majority approval at some point in his presidency. However, Obama, in his eighth month in office, could hit this mark in a shorter time than has typically been the case. If his rating falls below 50% before November, it would represent the third-fastest drop to below majority approval since World War II, behind the declines for Gerald Ford (in his third month as president) and Bill Clinton (in his fourth month).

The time it has taken for presidents' approval ratings to drop below 50% has varied greatly.

*
Dwight Eisenhower did not fall below the majority level until his fifth year in office, and his 48% approval rating in March and April 1958 was his only sub-50% approval rating.
*
Both George Bushes were in office roughly three full years before their approval ratings slid below 50%. The younger Bush might have gotten there much faster if not for the post-Sept. 11 rally, as his approval rating just before the terror attacks was 51%, but it shot up to 86% days later.
*
Lyndon Johnson and Richard Nixon both served more than two years in office before their approval ratings fell below 50%.
*
Four presidents -- Harry Truman (11 months into his term), as well as Ford, Reagan, and Clinton -- dropped below majority approval in their first year in office.
*
Jimmy Carter had relatively high early approval ratings and did not drop below 50% approval until February 1978, after a year in office.
*
John Kennedy never had a sub-50% approval rating in his less-than-three-year term, though his ratings were on a downward trend at the time of his untimely death.

Excluding Kennedy's presidency, the average amount of time before a president lost majority approval is 23 months. The typical or median length is 13 months.

Obama began his term with one of the higher initial job approval ratings in recent history. His six-month honeymoon was slightly below average in length compared to those of other elected presidents in recent times. The recent further erosion in his public support -- perhaps a result of the push for healthcare reform and concern over the growth in government spending -- may result in one of the faster slides below majority approval for modern presidents.

However, falling below 50% would hardly mark a point of no return for Obama. All presidents went back above the 50% mark after their initial loss of majority public support. And Clinton and Reagan, who dropped below majority approval faster than most other presidents, easily won second terms in the subsequent election.

Will the Newly appointed FL Sen. Lemieux be the Dems 61st vote

(Ocala).To hear George LeMieux tell it, the approach he will bring to Washington, D.C., is modeled after that of the man who put him there - and who aims to take his place.

"I describe myself as a Charlie Crist Republican," LeMieux said.

LeMieux, named by Gov. Crist on Friday to take the spot of departing Sen. Mel Martinez, explained that means that he is a "problem solver" who is unafraid to reach across party lines but still committed to "limited government."

But will LeMieux, the governor's former chief of staff, tackle the controversial issues confronting the Senate over the next 16 months by casting votes with the solidly Republican bloc?

Or will he offer hope to Democrats struggling to find GOP support for major intitiatives such as health-care reform and new rules to slow global warming?

Martinez was reliably Republican, voting with the majority of his party nearly 85 percent of the time and scoring 100 percent ratings from such social conservative groups as the Family Research Council and Gun Owners of America.

LeMieux's record suggests he may not be as reliable a vote for his party.

In his only run for elected office, for the Statehouse in 1998, LeMieux favored gay rights, including adoptions.

And it was LeMieux who urged Crist to snub President George W. Bush just days before the 2006 election.

LeMieux worked with Crist, who was attorney general at the time, when Crist decided to stay out of the emotional fray surrounding the legislative and legal battle to keep Terri Schiavo alive.

LeMieux was also responsible for helping craft the finer details on some of Crist's signature moves, including his push in 2007 to overhaul the property insurance market by greatly expanding the state's role in providing reinsurance.

And LeMieux has been willing to reach out to Democrats in order to accomplish Crist's goals.

Chris Kise, a former top Crist aide, said there is a high level of understanding between the two men. "He knows how George thinks and he can trust that thinking," said Kise.

But the idea that LeMieux is nothing more than a Crist surrogate has drawn criticism.

"He says he's a Charlie Crist Republican. I'm still trying to figure out what that means," said Chris Ingram, a Republican political consultant from Tampa. "I guess that means LeMieux is going to stick his finger in the air to see which way the wind blows."

Romney - The Long-Distance Runner

(BostonGlobe).....People who asked Romney what he would do once his presidential campaign was over say the former businessman and one-term Massachusetts governor did not flinch: He wanted to keep his hand in politics. For more than a year, Romney has done so with the same competitiveness and discipline that has marked nearly every challenge he has taken on in his life, from his foreign assignment as a Mormon missionary and career as a management consultant and founder of Bain Capital to his stewardship of the Salt Lake City Olympics and campaigns for senator, governor, and president.

“He lost a tough race,” says New Hampshire state Senator Jeb Bradley, a Republican and former US congressman. “After that, Mitt could have done anything he wanted with his life: back to the nonprofit world or start a new business. But what has he been doing? He’s kept at it. He’s been busting his butt since losing more than anyone I have ever seen.”

Romney’s has been the metabolism of a candidate-in-waiting, one who started paying attention to his long-term interests even before he withdrew from the primaries. Over the last year, as his fellow Republicans made career-crippling moves or drifted toward irrelevance, Romney’s meticulous approach has left him not only the default front-runner for the party’s 2012 nomination but one of the only stable forces the GOP has left. The six-person operation that Romney built over the last year in a Lexington office complex -- under the flag of his Free and Strong America political action committee -- may qualify as the closest thing there is to a durable Republican infrastructure in the Obama era.

With nearly metronomic precision, Romney seems to emerge monthly from the cuckoo clock he has constructed for his exile. Each time, he delivers a speech with a carefully calibrated new critique of the Democratic regime, and then retreats back to a lower-profile schedule of fund-raisers, Op-Eds, and diligent networking among Republicans nationwide.

While Romney spent much of last year campaigning for other candidates, this year he turned his attention to what advisers acknowledge is the primary objective: financing his own political operations. In the first six months of the year, Romney’s PAC raised more than $1.6 million and spent most of it -- six times more than the committee gave away to other Republican candidates during the 2008 campaign. Much of the budget appears to have paid for salaries, consultant fees, and fund-raising expenses, including direct-mail printing, postage, and tens of thousands to the Romney for President campaign to acquire contributor lists. Romney is incubating a national organization ready to become a presidential campaign at a time when victory could cost $1 billion.

“He’s sensitive to that, and so he’s making smart and continuing investments in his own political infrastructure to keep his options open,” says Musser, the former adviser. “No one else is doing that today.”

Other potential Republican candidates have fought to earn a national profile, and most have stumbled from the overreach. Huckabee has launched a Fox News variety show and Alaska governor Sarah Palin abruptly quit her office midterm. Others trying to raise their profiles have made political enemies: Florida governor Charlie Crist outraged members of his own party by campaigning in favor of Obama’s stimulus bill, while Louisiana governor Bobby Jindal frustrated his state’s residents when he rejected a portion of the federal money. South Carolina governor Mark Sanford and US Senator John Ensign of Nevada were both forced into exposing comi-tragic dalliances.

Romney’s schedule is a testament to his measure and caution as he has worked to stay in front of crucial conservative constituencies and away from unnecessary squabbling on news shows. “He’s not a talking head, and he doesn’t want to be critic-in-chief,” says spokesman Eric Fehrnstrom. Romney turns down 95 percent of the media requests he receives and has refused to cooperate with what he calls “Romney-in-exile” profiles, including this one. “He is not a candidate, he is a private citizen,” says Fehrnstrom. “He does not want to invite or encourage speculation about 2012.”

Instead, the PAC’s project has been to position Romney as the thinking man of the Republican Party. (Here he faces competition from former House speaker Newt Gingrich, who has his own policy-oriented PAC and well-earned ties to the conservative establishment.) The material that has survived since the campaign is the stuff that presents Romney as a sage, full of geo-strategic concepts and a passel of rhetorical tricks to elucidate them: analogies and typologies and copious references to great-man figures and historical “inflection points.” At the National Rifle Association convention, Romney spoke only cursorily of gun issues, saving most of his energy for a schematic account of the “four strategies competing to lead the world in this century” and a comparison of modern-day liberals to “monarchists.”

Romney is hoping to crystallize this worldview in his second book, No Apology: The Case for American Greatness, which he has been writing, with a research assistant’s help, from a laptop at his Lexington office and on the beachside patio of his home near San Diego. (It will be published in March.) Those who have read parts of the book say not to expect any surprises, just a coherent synthesis of Romney’s views that will help demonstrate his seriousness to a broad audience.

Romney also seems to be quietly aligning with a faction of conservatives bidding a quiet farewell to the party’s overarching obsession with culture. Last summer, Romney met Virginia congressman Eric Cantor when the two were dispatched for a day of spokesman duties at the Democratic Convention in Denver. In November, Cantor was elected House minority whip and quickly invited Romney to address congressional Republicans when they gathered for their first post-election retreat. Now the two speak regularly by phone.

When Cantor unveiled his National Council for a New America, perhaps the most concerted of the efforts within the party to rebrand the Republican agenda, he had Romney by his side for the early May photo op. At a suburban Virginia pizzeria, Romney and former Florida governor Jeb Bush were perched on wooden stools as two of Cantor’s five “national experts”: a tableau of a smart, good-natured party in search of a common-sense future. The group’s founding documents promised “a conversation with America that seeks to remove ideological filters” on issues like health care, education, energy, national security, and economic issues. There was no mention of immigration, abortion, judges, or gay rights, and Republican leaders most popular with religious conservatives -- Palin and Huckabee, in particular -- were glaringly not included.

“He’s someone who is solutions-oriented. He’s about results, it’s about deliverables. He says: Let’s put a goal out there,” Cantor says of Romney. “So much of what our party needs right now is the respect that we can implement our conservative vision.”

As Romney advisers mined their 2008 experience for potential 2012 lessons, several rued the fact that he had been introduced nationally as an ideological purist and not as a businesslike pragmatist. Instead, his campaign focused too intently on winning over Iowa’s evangelical voters, for whom Romney’s Mormonism had likely been an insurmountable hurdle, aides concluded after the election. “If you’re looking for a mistake we made, we should have made [the campaign] more about competence,” says Ron Kaufman, a lobbyist and former White House official who advises Romney. “If a Republican can win in 2012, it will be because competence matters.”

Advisers say Romney can likely wait until after the 2010 midterm elections before deciding whether to run and beginning to build a formal campaign organization. (Romney officially announced his last candidacy in February 2007, although staff and strategy had been in place for months beforehand.) “He’ll have the greatest flexibility to wait and not do all these things, because he’s done it before,” says Kaufman.

“My sense is, if Romney runs for president again, he won’t have the same problems with the ideological purists and those skeptical of his faith, his past position on abortion or guns. All those issues have been largely placated by him proving himself as a committed team player,” says Musser. “My bet is you’d see Mr. Fix-It on full display.”

The grander challenge is whether Romney, a proud strategist of reinvention who called his first book Turnaround, can get away with such a stylistic makeover -- even if Romney’s heart is far more that of a technocrat than a true believer.

This spring, Romney sold his homes in Belmont and Utah, bringing his recession-era inventory of houses to two (in California and New Hampshire). But he may add another: He has started shopping for a condo in Boston. “He’s slowing down a bit, and realized he has more than he needed,” says Tagg Romney, who now hosts his parents in a kitchenette-equipped guest room at his own Belmont home when Mitt and Ann need a place to sleep in Boston. (Romney’s staff is still struggling to capture the language of residential austerity: Fehrnstrom talks of “opening up the house” on New Hampshire’s Lake Winnipesaukee for summer as though it were a weeks-long activity.) The property shift sets Romney up to claim home-field advantage in New Hampshire, a state he needs to win. But Romney will remain registered to vote in Massachusetts, Fehrnstrom says.

When he geared up to run the last time, Romney went to Iowa and bivouacked there for much of 2007. Romney advisers are already beginning to see New Hampshire as a stronger base from which to launch the early days of a 2012 candidacy; when Romney volunteered to do future National Council events, he told Cantor he wanted to do them in the Northeast. “Iowa will be reassessed by both parties -- whether people should be planting the flag there as much as they have,” says Gage, the former Romney consultant. “My takeaway personally is that New Hampshire is still the king. It really is the most important, and not Iowa.”

The most audacious option would be to completely bypass Iowa -- as McCain did in 2000 and toyed with doing last year -- and with it downplay the circuit of conservative interest groups to which Romney felt obliged to pay fealty in advance of 2008. “He doesn’t have to do that again,” says Keene, the American Conservative Union head. “That’s the plus side of his candidacy. A lot of people got comfortable with him, and he didn’t make a fool out of himself. You don’t always lose by losing.”

Cheney Slams Obama's 'Politicized' Probe of CIA Interrogations

"We had a track record now of eight years of defending the nation against any further mass casualty attacks from al Qaeda. The approach of the Obama administration should be to come to those people who were involved in that policy and say, 'How did you do it? What were the keys to keeping this country safe over that period of time?'

"Instead, they're out there now threatening to disbar the lawyers who gave us the legal opinions -- threatening contrary to what the president originally said. They're going to go out and investigate the CIA personnel who carried out those investigations," (Cheney).

(FOXNews).Calling it a "terrible decision" that undermines national security and devastates CIA morale, former Vice President Dick Cheney slammed the Obama administration's probe of aggressive interrogation of terrorists.

"It's an outrageous political act that will do great damage, long-term, to our capacity to be able to have people take on difficult jobs, make difficult decisions, without having to worry about what the next administration is going to say," Cheney told "FOX News Sunday" in a no-holds-barred interview.

In blunt, unsparing language, Cheney accused President Obama of setting a "terrible precedent" by launching an "intensely partisan, politicized look back at the prior administration." He seemed to question Obama's fitness as commander-in-chief.

"I have serious doubts about his policies," Cheney told FOX News' Chris Wallace in Jackson Hole, Wyo. "Serious doubts, especially, about the extent to which he understands and is prepared to do what needs to be done to defend the nation."

As evidence, Cheney pointed to Obama's decision last week to assert White House control over a newly formed unit that will interrogate terrorists. The new arrangement shifts control of such interrogations away from the CIA and toward the FBI, although oversight will be exercised by the National Security Council, which is located in the White House and reports directly to the president.

Cheney ridiculed the new unit, which will be known as the High-Value Detainee Interrogation Group (HIG)."It's not even clear who's responsible," he marveled. "The Justice Department is, then they claim they aren't. The FBI is responsible, and they claim they aren't. It's some kind of interagency process by which they're going to be responsible for interrogating high-value detainees.

"If we had tried to do that back in the aftermath of 9/11, when we captured Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, the mastermind of 9/11, we'd have gotten no place," he said.

Cheney predicted the new unit will be incapable of effectively interrogating "people that may have knowledge about imminent attacks."

"They're going to have to have meetings and decide who gets to ask what question and who's going to Mirandize the witness," he said. "I think it's silly. It makes no sense. It doesn't appear to be a serious move in terms of being able to deal with the nation's security."

Cheney warned that curtailing the CIA's role in interrogations is a grave mistake.

"I think it's a direct slap at the CIA. I don't think it will work," he said. "It moves very much in the direction of going back to the old way of looking at these terrorist attacks -- that these are law enforcement problems, that this isn't a strategic threat to the United States."

Obama's approval hits new low.......only 47% approve

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows that 32% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Forty-two percent (42%) Strongly Disapprove. That’s the highest level of Strong Disapproval yet recorded for this President.

If Americans could vote to keep or replace the entire Congress, 57% would throw out all the legislators and start over again. Just 25% would vote to keep the Congress.

Overall, 47% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the President's performance. That matches the lowest total approval yet measured for Obama. Fifty-two percent (52%) now disapprove.

Friday, August 28, 2009

The real Unemployment rate is 20.6% ,worst since the great depression

(USnews).The "Great Recession" is the name that has stuck for the economic decline that began in late 2007. But there's some reason to think that using the word recession is being kind.

The U.S. gross domestic product has shrunk 3.9 percent in the past year, the worst drop since the Great Depression. Plenty of observers are willing to say that this recession is much deeper than anything we've seen since the 1930s--including the big dip in the early 1980s, generally accepted as the other candidate for the worst recession since the Great Depression. "I think it's way worse today," says Ridgely Evers of Tapit Partners, a longtime entrepreneur and venture capitalist who founded the software company Netbooks (now known as WorkingPoint). In the recession of 1981 and 1982, "people recognized it as a dip. [Today,] nobody thinks we are going to come back out in relatively short order." This recession seems to have dragged on longer.

The unemployment rate is a murky number. It seems simple enough to look at the national unemployment figures released every month by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In July, that number was 9.4 percent...

So where's the murkiness? The problem is that many of the people one would think of as "unemployed" are not included in this unemployment rate. For one, the Bureau of Labor Statistics does not count unemployed people who have been discouraged by the labor market and have given up looking for work. You are counted as a "discouraged worker" if you are available to work, want to work, and tried to look for work in the past year but gave up within four weeks for reasons including the belief that no work is available. The fact that the national unemployment rate excludes these discouraged workers has led many observers to believe it does not reflect the "real" level of unemployment. "Ask the average person if he or she is unemployed, and there is little hesitation in giving you an answer, but that may not agree with government definitions," says John Williams, an economist who examines government statistics at shadowstats.com.

Other people who aren't counted in the official number are those who have been forced by the economy to work part time. The number of workers who wanted full-time jobs but could find only part-time work was 1.8 million last month, which amounts to 1.3 percent of the labor force.

What happens when you start counting all these people who have been heavily battered by the labor market? The Bureau of Labor Statistics has another rate that includes "marginally affected workers" and part-time workers. That number, referred to as U-6 because of its identification in bureaureports, was 16.3 percent last month--nearly 7 percentage points higher than the official unemployment rate. What's more, the number of people who have given up on finding work has been steadily rising over the past few months, from 685,000 in May to 796,000 in July. "If you have that number of people leaving the workforce, that seems to me a serious problem," says economist John Lott.

Many people are giving up because the labor market is so bad--but how bad historically? A U-6 rate of more than 16 percent certainly does not compare to the Great Depression, when a quarter of the workforce was unemployed. And Williams points out that a much larger number of workers were agricultural workers in the 1930s. These farm workers are not included in today's statistics. So, by his estimates, nonfarm unemployment was at 35 percent in 1933). Trying to compare that U-6 number with the early '80s recession gets a bit tricky. The U-6 measurement did not come into use until 1994. Before that, the Bureau of Labor Statistics used a broader measurement, referred to as U-7, to figure out the number of unemployed plus workers dropping out of the labor force. In 1982, U-7 hit a peak of 15.3 percent, below the current U-6 of 16.3 percent. But 1982 should probably look even better compared with the labor market of today. U-7 overestimates the number of discouraged workers compared with how we measure them today. For example, the Bureau of Labor Statistics started asking people in surveys if they were actually available to work. These and other changes reduced the measurement of discouraged workers by 50 percent, according to some estimates.

So if you care not just about people who meet the official definition of "unemployed" but also about people who are dropping out of the labor force, 2009 seems to be trailing 1982 in terms of the health of the labor market. Williams says that when he takes into consideration people who haven't looked for work in more than a year because they can't find jobs, the real unemployment rate today goes all the way up to 20.6 percent by his calculations. "It won't take much to get it to the worst since the Great Depression," he says.

Thursday, August 27, 2009

Practice what you preach - Obama Pro bike helmets,but does not wear one

(ABC News).President Obama took a bike ride with his family today in Aquinnah, on Martha’s Vineyard. The First Family cruised along Lobsterville Beach on a gorgeous sunny day but there was one glaring omission in an otherwise picture perfect tableau – the president was not wearing a bike helmet.

White House spokesman Bill Burton said he did not know why the president was not wearing a helmet because he generally does.“He supports the wearing of bicycle helmets,” Burton said.

President Romney sounds more attractive - Mitt Romney won't run for Kennedy's seat

(POLITICO 44).Former Massachusetts GOP Gov. Mitt Romney will not seek the Senate seat vacated by Ted Kennedy’s death, a Romney spokesman said Thursday.

Responding to speculation that Romney may be interested in the seat — which he challenged Kennedy for in 1994 — Eric Fehrnstrom, a spokesman for Romney’s political action committee, told POLITICO that the former one-term governor has no interest in campaigning to replace Kennedy.

“Gov. Romney’s focus right now is on helping other Republicans run for office, and that is how he will be spending his time,” he said.

Romney’s name had been floated in state political circles and among conservative bloggers as a viable GOP candidate, but Fehrnstrom said Romney absolutely will not run.

Despite declining to run for a second term as governor in 2006 and dwindling support in the state for his landmark universal health care policy, Romney’s poll ratings in solidly Democratic Massachusetts remain respectable.

According to a Rasmussen Reports poll released the day before Kennedy’s death late Tuesday night, Romney rated second after the late nine-term senator as the most respected politician in the state.

More than one-third of those surveyed, 35 percent, said they respected Romney the most among the state’s politicians. Only 5 percent said Democratic Sen. John Kerry while 3 percent chose Deval Patrick, the state’s Democratic governor. Exactly half of those surveyed said they respected Kennedy the most.

Obama Goes After CIA to Appease his Left base

(Dick Morris-Newsmax).After vowing not to become involved in recriminations over the Bush anti-terror policies, President Barack Obama has allowed his attorney general, Eric Holder, to appoint a special prosecutor to dig up all the dirt he can find on the CIA and the anti-terror investigators whose aggressive questioning saved us from countless attacks.

Why the switch? Because Obama needs to do something to appease the left that elected him. After refusing to pull out of Iraq and deciding to follow the Bush timetable for withdrawing, and staying in Afghanistan and likely having to beef up our presence there, liberals might be wondering why they elected Obama. After all, his opposition to the war in Iraq and his criticism of the Bush anti-terror policies were the hallmarks of his campaign in 2008.

And, on the domestic front, Obama likely realizes that he may have to pull in his horns on healthcare and accept some sort of compromise which may not endear him to his constituency.

So he has decided to throw a few CIA interrogators to the wolves.

Man At Redding Town Hall: "Go Back To Washington And Tell The Self Appointed King We Are Fed Up"

Gallup,Rasmussen: Obama's approval at 50%

*Gallup Daily: Obama Job Approval

*Rasmussen:50% of likely voters say they at least somewhat approve of the President's performance. Forty-nine percent (49%) now disapprove.

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Netnayahu in Germany welcomes Abbas first Positive Move towards Peace talkse

(Ynet).BERLIN - Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday evening welcomed a positive signal on the part of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and a possibility that the two leaders will meet next month.

Netanyahu spoke during a press briefing following his meeting with German President Horst Köhler in Berlin.

"I believed such moves should be made," Netanyahu said, referring to Abbas' willingness to meet with him. "I view this announcement as a positive thing, perhaps the first one. I have yet to look into it, but I have said that we must convene and sit down without any preconditions. This is the simplest and most convenient thing for resuming the process," he said.

The prime minister also spoke of his meeting earlier Wednesday with US special envoy to the Middle East George Mitchell in London. "The discussions have moved us forward in the process, but there are still matters which have not been finalized. The talks between us and the US will continue next week. My team will meet Mitchell, and the envoy himself will probably come to Israel during the second week of September.

"My goal is to move forward while balancing between two needs – maintaining the quality of life of the settlements' residents on the one hand, and launching a diplomatic process on the other hand. Progress was made today and there was a good atmosphere. I don’t want to refer to the content of talks, but don't rely on rumors saying that we agreed or did not agree to certain demands."

Addressing a report by British Guardian newspaper that the United State and Europe would support sanctions against Iran in return for an Israeli commitment to freeze settlement construction, the prime minister said that "the American attitude towards the Iranian issue stands for itself."

Netanyahu denied a link between sanctions required against Iran and the peace process as one deal. He added, however, "I have said in the past that Iran's armament will cloud over peace. This doesn’t mean we are not doing anything for peace.

"Look what Iran is doing with its emissaries in order to thwart this. Iran is arming Hezbollah to its teeth and Hamas. It's doing it without a nuclear weapon, so what will it do when it does have a nuclear weapon? Anyone who wishes to strengthen peace must bolster the moderates and weaken the extremists. This does not contradict the peace process. These things are completely compatible."

As for the possibility that the Palestinians would demand that the negotiations on the core issue begin from the point the talks with the Olmert government left off, Netanyahu said, "They will raise all the issues they consider as core, and we will raise the issues we consider as core.

"I spoke to the German president and told him that the root of the conflict is not in the communities, not in the borders, not in a dispute over one territory or another. This is not the root of the conflict. The root of the conflict is the need to recognize the Jewish people's state, and I used the phrase 'Judenstaat'. I will not let go of this matter. It's a core issue as far as I am concerned."

For the first time, the prime minister addressed demand that Saudi Arabia join the regional process, saying after landing in Berlin, "We need regional peace and normalization. Saudi Arabia is a very important country for establishing peace and strengthening it.

"I can say that if a peace process does open, it must have a regional component, a political one, an economic one, and other fields. We support such a process."

Only 24% Say Democrats Should Pass Health Care Reform Without GOP Votes

If Democrats agree on a health care reform bill that is opposed by all Republicans in Congress, 24% of voters nationwide say the Democrats should pass that bill.

But a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 58% believe the Democrats should change the bill to win support from "a reasonable number of Republicans." Nineteen percent (19%) are not sure what congressional Democrats should do.

Sen. Edward M. Kennedy Dies at age 77; Romney Statement on Kennedy

Romney Statement on Kennedy via Free & Strong America:

"The loss of Senator Ted Kennedy is a sad event for America, and especially for Massachusetts. The last son of Rose Fitzgerald and Joseph Kennedy was granted a much longer life than his brothers, and he filled those years with endeavor and achievement that would have made them proud.

In 1994, I joined the long list of those who ran against Ted and came up short. But he was the kind of man you could like even if he was your adversary. I came to admire Ted enormously for his charm and sense of humor – qualities all the more impressive in a man who had known so much loss and sorrow. I will always remember his great personal kindness, and the fighting spirit he brought to every cause he served and every challenge he faced. I was proud to know Ted Kennedy as a friend, and today my family and I mourn the passing of this big-hearted, unforgettable man."

Bill O'Reilly: Obamacare is Unconstitutional

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Gerald Celente 'Obamageddon is coming'

Obama vs. Bush RCP Job Approval in August

Aug 25 2001:
Bush Approval - 56.0%, Disapprove - 33.0%

Aug 25 2009:
Obama Approval - 51.8%, Disapprove 42.0%

Feingold: No health care bill before Christmas; We're headed in the direction of doing absolutely nothing

U.S. Sen. Russ Feingold told a large crowd gathered for a listening session in Iron County last week there would likely be no health care bill before the end of the year - and perhaps not at all.

It was an assessment Feingold said he didn't like, but the prospect of no health care legislation brought a burst of applause from a packed house of nearly 150 citizens at the Mercer Community Center.

"Nobody is going to bring a bill before Christmas, and maybe not even then, if this ever happens," Feingold said. "The divisions are so deep. I never seen anything like that."

"We're headed in the direction of doing absolutely nothing, and I think that's unfortunate," he said when asked about the plight of uninsured Americans.

During the discussion, Feingold said he could not declare whether he would support a health reform bill until he has actually seen one, and he said he would then seek out the opinions of Wisconsinites. The Senate recessed in late July with a deadlocked Senate Finance Committee unable to finish work on a bill.

"When I get a proposal I can look at it and decide whether I will support it," he said. "I will let the people of the entire state talk to me."

No Ma'am.....Mccain defends Obama's commitment to the Constitution

Peter King calls Holder's decision 'bulls**t'

(CNN) – Peter King, the New York congressman likely to challenge Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand in 2010, is blasting the Obama administration's decision to investigate Bush-era CIA interrogations.

"It's bullsh*t. It's disgraceful. You wonder which side they're on," the Long Island Republican told Politico Tuesday.

Dick Morris Says Democrats Could Lose 100 Seats In Next Election

Romney's Gold Medal - Poll: Romney best against Obama,leads Obama by 2 with Indep.; frontrunner in GOP '12 primary

(GOP12,prnewswire).In a new poll conducted by the Clarus Research Group, Barack Obama continues to best hypothetical challengers in a 2012 matchup, although his numbers fall below 50% against two opponents.

1. Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 38%

2. Barack Obama 48% Mike Huckabee 38%

3. Barack Obama 52% Newt Gingrich 34%

4. Barack Obama 53% Sarah Palin 34%

"The fact that Obama falls below 50 percent against two possible Republican opponents should be troubling for him," said Ron Faucheux, president of Clarus Research Group. "It also shows that the electorate is increasingly divided on Obama, with significant partisan polarization." The president's standing among swing voters has eroded since November, 2008, when exit polling showed he defeated John McCain 52 percent to 44 percent among independents.

According to the new Clarus poll, among independent voters Romney beats Obama by two points, 42 percent to 40 percent, and Huckabee beats the president by one point, 41 percent to 40 percent.On the other hand, both Newt and Palin handily lose to Obama with the critical voting bloc. Obama's up +8% against Newt and +15% against Sarah.

As for the 2012 nomination*:

1. Mitt Romney 30%

2. Mike Huckabeee 22%

3. Sarah Palin 19%

4. Newt Gingrich 15%

5. Bobby Jindal 4%

Dem strategist Carville: CIA probe is 'terrible politics' for Obama

(CNN) – A prominent Democratic strategist said Monday that the Justice Department probe of CIA interrogations during President George W. Bush's administration may turn into a political liability for President Obama.

"This is terrible politics for the Obama administration and the Democrats," James Carville, a Democratic strategist and CNN political contributor, said Monday in an interview on 'The Situation Room.' "The country – like – really doesn't want this."

But, Carville added that the decision to open the probe into Bush-era interrogations of terrorism suspects is being driven by a belief that "we are a nation of laws."

Ed Rollins, a Republican strategist and CNN political contributor, agreed with Carville: "Well, we are a nation of laws," Rollins said. "And, I think, obviously if there's anybody who violated laws, they should be punished."But, Rollins noted that the probe runs the risk of sapping morale at the CIA "at a time that we need them to be on alert and moving forward."

Monday, August 24, 2009

Effective-Republican strategy of principled Opposition is winning...forcing Obama to play Defense

(Fred Barnes-WSJ):
Republican opposition isn't the only reason for this. Mr. Obama did himself no favors by pushing policies far more liberal than voters wanted. But the decision by Republicans to be combative rather than accommodating has played an indispensable role.

What the GOP has done best has been to make and win arguments. This is the key to successful opposition. Seeking compromise, being conciliatory, pretending bipartisanship exists when it doesn't all play into the hands of the majority. These tactics are a ticket to permanent minority status. By making the case against Mr. Obama's policies, Republicans have given themselves a chance to again win favor with voters.

Today, the strategy of strong opposition to Mr. Obama seems obvious. But it didn't appear that way to many Republicans after their crushing electoral defeats in 2006 and 2008. Republicans were afraid that crossing Mr. Obama would only make the public dislike them all the more.

Inside Washington, they were urged to reduce the influence of pro-lifers in the party and distance themselves from conservative talk radio hosts such as Rush Limbaugh. They were told to warm up to Mr. Obama, the new master of American politics, and they were told to fret about all those voting blocs that were drifting away from the GOP—Hispanics, young people, gays, urbanites, blacks, voters in Northeastern states and independents. To survive, in short, they needed to move the party to the center. Conservatism was dead.

In hindsight, it's fortunate that they ignored the Beltway wisdom. But it was a gamble—it wasn't clear at the time that a strategy of pure opposition would do anything other than marginalize Republicans.

Their first big step was to oppose the economic "stimulus" package. Many in the media insisted Republicans had a death wish when they unanimously rejected it in the House and by a near-unanimous vote in the Senate. The press was wrong. This was the smartest move Republicans have made all year, one with several positive repercussions.

Republicans deconstructed the bill, pointing to its excessive spending, its pork, its favors for Democratic special interests, its lack of actual economic stimulants. Their critique was full-throated and specific. Not only did Republicans begin to revive their reputation as fiscal hawks, they convinced a large chunk of the public that out-of-control spending was a threat to the nation's well-being.

The effect has been to crimp Mr. Obama's plans for further spending. New funds for bailouts are unlikely to be approved by Congress. ObamaCare's cost—a minimum $1 trillion—has become a big reason protesters are turning out against it at town-hall meetings.

On health care, it's nice that Republicans have offered several alternatives to Mr. Obama's government-heavy plan. But these alternatives have played no role in turning America against the president's ideas. Opposition to ObamaCare in all its parts (not only its cost) has been the chief factor in flipping public opinion.

And that opposition has validated the noisy protests at Democratic town-hall meetings. Absent Republican opposition in Washington, the protests could be dismissed as insignificant. Together, congressional Republicans and their grassroots allies have become an influential force.

There's an even more important consequence of Republican opposition. It's preventing dozens of moderate House Democrats in Republican-leaning districts from going for ObamaCare. They won't vote for it without Republican cover. Republicans are 40 votes short of a House majority, yet they're thwarting Mr. Obama's chief domestic priority. That's effective opposition.

On a public radio show last week, I was asked about a Pew poll that found that the favorable rating for Democrats was in sharp decline (now down to 49%) but that the rating for Republicans was unchanged all year (40%). The host suggested this means opposition to Mr. Obama is getting Republicans nowhere.

That's not the way politics works. Political recovery comes in two stages. The party out of power must first discredit the majority's ideas and agenda. Public approval comes later. It shows up on Election Day.

PPP in Arkansas: 64% of independents there think Rush Limbaugh has a better vision for America than the President

Full results to follow....

Steele agrees to Radio Host Jericho that the Republican Party needs to lead with a Leader

Fox n' Friends:The Notion That Republicans Are Trying To Block Health Care Reform Is A ‘Conspiracy Theory’

(Thinkprogress).This morning on Fox and Friends, host Brian Kilmeade did a segment defending the Republican Party against accusations that it is trying to “sink” health care reform. “[D]oes this conspiracy theory really hold any water?” asked Kilmeade,The two Republican guests on the panel agreed:

KT McFARLAND, FMR REAGAN OFFICIAL: First thing — the right-wing conspiracy? The GOP isn’t that organized. Secondly, they’re not against health care reform, they’re just against this health care reform, and they’re particularly against nationalized health care, which is the direction that we’re going. [...]

JOHN FUND, WSJ: How in the world can Republicans — even if they wanted to be obstructionist — do anything? They don’t have any votes in the Senate to block a filibuster, they’re a hopeless minority in the House, they don’t have the White House. So even if they were obstructionist, this is all on Democrats because they have all the votes they need. So to blame the other party is, frankly, I think, passing the buck. And I think the fact that Democrats now want to move to this reconciliation measure, which would require only 51 votes to pass something in the Senate — I think this is very politically perilous because Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid would have to lead that fight.

Polls Show There Never Was a Liberal Mandate

(Lorie Byrd-Americanissuesproject).According to the most recent polls, the President’s approval numbers are dropping like a rock. Perhaps of even greater concern to the President are the numbers for the generic congressional ballot showing Republicans ahead of Democrats for the past eight weeks. November 2010 is an eternity away in political time, but the numbers today are something that should be of great concern to Democrats and the President. The numbers are also evidence that many winners in the 2008 election misread their mandate.

The latest Gallup poll shows presidential approval at 51 percent, with 41 percent disapproval. To understand just how much that number has changed since the President took office in January, consider that the numbers in the same poll for the January 21-23 period were 68-12 percent. A gap of 56 percent between approval and disapproval has shrunken to 10 percent.

Americans voted on an agenda of “hope ‘n change”, but I would argue many voted on the basis of personality and image. They chose the young, black fist-bumping rock star over the man often caricatured as a cranky, old white guy. The vote was about change from what was, rather than a vote in favor of any specific agenda. Since Obama provided few policy details during the campaign, he made quite a leap to interpret the election results as a mandate for the liberal agenda he has pursued as president, and now that is being reflected in opinion polls.

According to the latest Rasmussen poll, “43% would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate while 38% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent.” Of even greater significance, independent voters now favor the GOP 45%-18%. The same poll now even shows women preferring the GOP over Democrats.

Another Rasmussen poll shows respondents for the first time in over two years trusting Republicans more on the issue of health care.

Americans are not thrilled with the change they have gotten. The bailouts and stimulus plan were answered with protests which, in a matter of months, became the Tea Party movement. But the debate over health care is what has elicited the most intense public reaction. That is not surprising considering health care is such an incredibly personal issue.

The President and Democrats have gotten into trouble with the public because they believed voters gave them the congress in 2006 and the White House in 2008 because they wanted a more liberal government. If Democrats won elections by campaigning as liberals, explaining the specifics of their policy proposals, that might be true.

What is more often the case is that those who win elections campaign as conservatives or moderates. Unfortunately that does not mean they govern that way. Obama and the Democrats criticized George Bush for spending and running up deficits, but within months of taking office added trillions of dollars of deficit spending.

Just because voters were angry at corporate executives collecting big bonuses at the same time thousands of people were losing their jobs, did not mean they wanted the government deciding how much money those in private enterprise could make.

Just because voters wanted the American car industry to survive and thrive, did not mean they wanted the government to go into the car business -- deciding which executives should be hired and fired and guaranteeing car warranties.

Just because voters wanted change from what have been increasingly high health care costs, did not mean they wanted a plan that would give the government so much control over the industry.

Americans did not vote for a far left agenda, even though they voted for one of the most liberal presidential candidates in the history of the country. Those who interpreted the 2006 and 2008 elections as major shifts to the left, or any kind of mandate to govern from the far left, misjudged the results.

PPP Poll: Romney yet to convince that 'The Rich successful Guy' can represent the Middle class

(PPP).Among Republicans who make less than 25k a year 73% view Palin favorably but only 38% say they like Romney. Expand that to less than 50k a year and the gap closes but is still pretty wide- 75% with a positive opinion of Palin to 46% for Romney.

At the top of the pay scale it's a different story. Among GOP voters who make 75k on up the two are equally popular, with each seen positively by 66%. And when you restrict it those who make over 100k, Romney becomes the more popular one at 74% to Palin's 61%.

The divide is even wider on education level, at least at the low end. Among Republicans who have no schooling beyond high school 78% view Palin favorably while only 29% have a positive opinion of Romney. Expand that group to people who have some college education short of a four year degree and the gap narrows a little bit but remains wide at 72% favorable for Palin and 45% for Romney.

If Romney's going to win the nomination in 2012 he probably has to convince downscale GOP voters that he understands and shares their values and isn't just some rich guy who was born with a silver spoon in his mouth.

Obama's Big Bang could go bust

(POLITICO 44).Barack Obama’s Big Bang is beginning to backfire, as his plans for rapid, once-in-a-generation overhauls of energy, financial regulation and health care are running into stiff resistance, both in Washington and around the country.

The Obama theory was simple, though always freighted with risk: Use a season of economic anxiety to enact sweeping changes the public likely wouldn’t stomach in ordinary times. But the abrupt swing in the public’s mood, from optimism about Obama’s possibility to concern he may be overreaching, has thrown the White House off its strategy and forced the president to curtail his ambitions.

Some Democrats point to a decision in June as the first vivid sign of trouble for Obama. These Democrats say the White House, in retrospect, made a grievous mistake by muscling conservative Democrats in swing districts to vote for a cap-and-trade energy bill that was very unpopular among their constituents.

The other result: The prospects for winning final passage of a cap-and-trade bill this year are greatly diminished. And, while most Democrats still predict a health care bill will pass this year, it is likely to be a shadow of what Obama once had planned.

“The majority-makers are the freshman and sophomores from conservative districts where there’s this narrative building about giveaways, bailouts and too much change at once,” said a top House Democratic strategist, who requested anonymity to discuss internal politics candidly. “There’s this big snowball building in those districts. That’s why those folks are so scared."

But the “Big Bang” theory of governance, as some White House insiders called it, is not without risk and consequences.

By doing so much, so fast, Obama gave Republicans the chance to define large swaths of the debate. Conservatives successfully portrayed the stimulus bill as being full of pork for Democrats. Then Obama lost control of the health care debate by letting Republicans get away with their bogus claims about “death panels.” The GOP also has successfully raised concerns that the Obama plan is a big-government takeover of health care — and much of Middle America bought the idea, according to polls.

By doing so much, so fast, Obama never sufficiently educated the public on the logic behind his policies. He spent little time explaining the biggest bailouts in U.S. history, which he inherited but supported and expanded. And then he lost crucial support on the left by not following up quickly with new and stricter rules for Wall Street.

By doing so doing so much, so fast, he has left voters — especially independents — worried that he got an overblown sense of his mandates and is doing, well, too much too fast. A Washington Post-ABC News poll published Friday found that independents’ confidence in Obama’s ability to make the right decisions had dropped 20 points since the Inauguration, from 61 percent to 41 percent.

Obamacare - The Democratic Party waterloo

(ROSS DOUTHAT-NYtimes).Throughout the 2008 campaign, Barack Obama’s most loyal constituencies were the national press corps and the left wing of the Democratic Party.

Those on the left loved him because they thought he was one of them. They tolerated all the happy talk about bipartisanship because they were sure that deep in his community-organizing heart Obama shared their premises, their passions and their goals.

The media loved him because he was a great story and a great campaigner. The press favors dreamy liberals, but it worships success, and Obama was the best of both worlds — a soaring rhetorician with a ruthlessly competent political machine.

But now both groups are turning on him. As the health care debate enters its decisive weeks, the left doubts President Obama’s commitment, and the press doubts his competence.

For MSNBC-watching, Huffington Post-devouring liberals, the administration’s fancy footwork on a public health care plan (maybe it’s out, maybe it’s in, but either way it’s negotiable) is just the latest example of the president’s unseemly unwillingness to steamroll the opposition. He has been too solicitous to Republicans, too hands-off with Democrats, too detached and technocratic — even as a once-in-a-generation opportunity is passing liberalism by.

Where the left sees betrayal, the press sees ham-fistedness. The White House’s messages have been mixed — fiscal hawkery one day, moralism the next. The administration has allowed distractions like the Skip Gates affair to crowd out his agenda. It has overlearned the lessons of the Clinton-care debacle and given Congress too much leeway. It has underlearned the lessons of the Bush-era Social Security debacle and gone to war before there’s an actual piece of legislation on the table.

President Obama has been turning these quasi-messianic expectations to his advantage since he first entered national politics. But that doesn’t make them any less unrealistic.

To listen to the chatter about where his administration has gone wrong, you would think that the rest of the Democratic Party had no agency — that Democratic office-holders are slaves to poll numbers that only the White House can control, and that the way a Max Baucus, a Ben Nelson or a Blanche Lincoln votes is entirely determined by whether the president of the United States twists the right arms and hits the right rhetorical notes.

In reality, the health care wrestling match is less a test of Mr. Obama’s political genius than it is a test of the Democratic Party’s ability to govern. This is not the Reagan era, when power in Washington was divided, and every important vote required the president to leverage his popularity to build trans-party coalitions. Fox News and Sarah Palin have soapboxes, but they don’t have veto power. Mr. Obama could be a cipher, a nonentity, a Millard Fillmore or a Franklin Pierce, and his party would still have the power to pass sweeping legislation without a single Republican vote.

Squawk Box's Kernen Says Pawlenty for President in 2012

(Washington Whispers): CNBC's Squawk Box, the early-morning business show that puts the spotlight on the intersection of Wall Street and Washington.....Kernen is political. "My deal is that I'd rather have the markets do it. I think government is ineffective," says Kernen, who sneers at "Government Motors" and the "activist administration." Still, he likes President Obama. "I think he's an incredibly likable and charismatic guy. For a while, I wish I'd voted for him. But then when I see some of the stuff, I'm glad I didn't." As for 2012, he likes former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty. "President Pawlenty doesn't really roll off the tongue, but who would have thought 'President Obama'?"

Massachusetts turning Red - Gov. Patrick trail GOP Challanger Mihos by 5%

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Massachusetts voters shows the Democratic incumbent trailing potential Republican challenger Christy Mihos 40% to 35%. Eleven percent (11%) like some other candidate, and 15% are not sure.In June , Mihos had a statistically insignificant 41% to 40% lead over Patrick, so the bad news for the governor is that he is losing support.Patrick has a one-point lead over another possible GOP competitor, health care executive Charlie Baker, 40% to 39%, with seven percent (7%) opting for some other candidate and 15% again undecided. In June, Patrick led Baker 41% to 36%.

In a match-up with Mihos, Patrick picks up 56% of the Democratic vote. Against Baker, the governor earns 66% support from his own party. Both Republicans have the backing of more than 75% of GOP voters.Voters not affiliated with either party favor either of the Republicans by 30 points over Patrick.

Sunday, August 23, 2009

Reid Trails GOP Challenger By Double Digits in New Poll

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is trailing a top Republican challenger by 11 points ahead of next year's election, according to a new poll.

The Mason-Dixon Polling and Research survey, reported Sunday in the Las Vegas Review-Journal, showed GOP candidate Danny Tarkanian leading Reid by 49 percent to 38 percent in Nevada.

Tarkanian is a former basketball player for the University of Nevada-Las Vegas and recently announced his candidacy.

The new poll also showed Sue Lowden, chairwoman of the Nevada Republican Party and a possible candidate, leading Reid by 45 percent to 40 percent.

Florida Republicans Rally Supporters to Mobilize for 2010 Elections

(Foxnews). Florida Gov. Charlie Crist called President Barack Obama's proposed health care overhaul "cockamamie" as he and the state Republican Party tried Saturday to get activists charged up for the 2010 election year.

The party also tried to reach out to young voters during its weekend meeting, featuring speeches from former Miss California Carrie Prejean and Olympic medalist Bruce Jenner and hosting discussions on how to use new media to promote party messages. Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, a potential 2012 presidential candidate, spoke at a party dinner Saturday night.

Party leaders made it clear they hope to turn the opposition to Obama's national health care plan into success next year when Crist runs for Senate instead of a second term. The governor's office and all three of Florida's Cabinet positions will be on the ballot as open seats.

On health care, Crist said, "What's going on in Washington is nuts."

"The prosperity we enjoy as a country is not because of government," he added. "It's because of free enterprise, and entrepreneurship and hard work."

He said the Republican Party is the one that wants to keep spending down and taxes low.

"It's why we're going to do so damn well next year and win," Crist said, the first ractive with low taxes.

"I'm a fiscal conservative, I won't just campaign as one, I'll govern as one," said McCollum, who is the only major Republican in the race. Another Cabinet member, Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink, is the only major Democrat running for governor.

"We can't tax and spend our way out of our fiscal difficulties, we have to grow our way out of it," McCollum said.

Obama's Whirpool - lowest approval ever

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows that 27% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Forty-one percent (41%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -14. These figures mark the lowest Approval Index rating yet recorded for this President. The previous low of -12 was reached on July 30 ( see trends ).Prior to today, the number who Strongly Approved of the President's performance had never fallen below 29%. Some of the decline has come from within the President's own party. Just 49% of Democrats offer such a positive assessment of the President at this time.At the other end of the spectrum, today's total for Strongly Disapprove matches the highest level yet recorded. The 41% mark was reached just once before and that came one week ago today. Seventy percent (70%) of Republicans now Strongly Disapprove along with 49% of those not affiliated with either major party.

Overall, 48% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the President's performance. Fifty-one percent (51%) now disapprove.

Are you ready for President Hannity?

(WND).Sean Hannity, a vocal opponent of Barack Obama's policies, said today he would not rule out a bid for the presidency in 2012. Egged on by radio colleague Bill Cunningham, Hannity said he would consider entering the front lines of the political fray if God directs him.

"I've never made a decision in my life without – whatever destiny God has you've got to fulfill it," he said. "I'm not sure that's my destiny." Hannity would make a formidable candidate, with the likability of Reagan, good looks and strong convictions. He's also a polished communicator and knows the issues inside out. And he can debate. Hannity hosts the second-largest radio program in America, after Rush Limbaugh, and a highly rated nightly TV show on the Fox News Channel.

While Obama's approval ratings have been plummeting in his first year in office, no clear Republican frontrunner has emerged. The candidates most often considered viable include Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin and Hannity's Fox News colleague Mike Huckabee. Cunningham, one of Hannity's guests during a visit to Cincinnati today, said the nation and the Republican Party need Hannity. When WND asked Hannity to repeat what he said on the air about a run, he said, "I ducked." Later in the program, a member of the audience asked what the host thought of a Hannity-Palin ticket. The studio audience erupted in applause. Hannity asked: "Would any of you really want me to run?" Loud applause followed.

Friday, August 21, 2009

As Americans already voice their dismay on Obama - Romney chooses a easy take on Obama, focusing on consensus acts

(politics.theatlantic).Until a media spree on Thursday Mitt Romney has been nowhere to be seen. This is surprising given the past few weeks' focus on health care should be the perfect moment for Romney to speak out,Romney's status as a once-and-possibly-future presidential candidate keeps him relevant to the press. Not to mention he's well suited for TV because he's good looking and well spoken.

Yet Romney has shied away from attention lately. He's been largely absent from television and gave just one extensive interview to a print publication, which was a conservative magazine. Romney penned an opinion piece for a Colorado newspaper - on card check. When the health care debate hits its zenith this autumn Romney will speak to the Nebraska GOP, far away from the sites of the national press.

As Marc reported in June, Romney has risen to the top of the "2012 Invisible Primary" because he's "picking and choosing his battles." Evidently he's choosing to not fight President Obama on health care, even though such a fight would boost his visibility and endear him to Republicans.

Such an endeavor would be risky for Romney. First, he could be attacked from the right (as he has been) for making it illegal for Massachusetts residents to not have health insurance. Second, he could wind up being boxed in with health care extremists. Third, he would ride the anger to nowhere given the primaries are years away.

Not only has Romney stayed out of the fray, he tried to stay above it, in a way. Romney didn't simply attack Obama, calling him a crypto-socialist, a liar, or a policy fool as many Republicans have done. Instead, Romney told Obama wasn't measuring up to a higher standard.

"He continues to campaign, but what we really need right now is a president and the leadership of a president that works in a bipartisan basis that fashions a bill that improves our health care system...."

However, the former governor told Sean Hannity on the radio that expanding government's involvement in the parts of the medical system that it isn't already present is "antithetical to everything that's American." Notwithstanding, Romney didn't sound different on Obama on Hannity than he did on CBS.

Romney said Obama should have presented his own ideas to the public instead of having his health care agenda hijacked by liberals in Congress. In other words, Obama isn't at fault as much as Nancy Pelosi is for the health care plans. Romney's TV interview lacked the explosive quotes that have punctuated other high-profile Republicans' forays into the health care debate, like Sarah Palin's "death panels."

As unexciting as Romney's approach has been, it carries less risk for him as a potential presidential candidate as there would be if he climbed onto the back of the right-wing backlash as if it were a tiger. After all, those who ride tigers may one day find themselves inside.

Will the GOP go 'nuclear'?; Coulter: If Dems Use "Nuclear Option" it Will Bring "Massive GOP Victory" in '10

(Politico).Sen. Jon Kyl, No. 2 Republican in the Senate, told Fox News last night that passing a health care bill through the filibuster-proof budget reconciliation process would be the same as "the nuclear option."

It's a phrase that Republicans are increasingly invoking these days, but they are being far from clear on what they mean by that. Will they shut down the Senate if Democrats move in that direction? Or is it a talking point aimed at portraying the majority party as overreaching?

The term started in 2005 when a frustrated Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.) planned to eliminate the filibuster for judicial nominees, a move both sides called "the nuclear option." It was clear that if Republicans proceeded down that road, partisan warfare would have broken out and all Senate business would be stalled.

But the budget reconciliation process is far different. Republicans used the process in 2001 and 2003 to pass Bush's tax cuts, and tried unsuccessfully in 2005 to fast-track drilling in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. At the time, Democrats complained that the process was being abused.

Now Democrats are considering using the reconciliation process to pass the health care bill. Led by Robert Byrd, the process was created in 1974 as a way to make changes in tax laws and entitlement programs to meet the goals laid out in a non-binding budget blueprint Congress approves early in the year.

Since such changes are often very unpopular, Congress ensured they could not be filibustered in the Senate. And since floor debate in the Senate can be limited to 20 hours, passing health care reform by a simple majority is a very attractive option for the majority party.

For now, the GOP is objecting strenuously to the possibility, which Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has made clear is on the table.

"First of all, the reconciliation process, or the so-called nuclear option, is not ideal for writing legislation like this," Kyl said last night. "It's never been used to do something this sweeping. ... And if they just tried to ram that through with sheer numbers in opposition to American public opinion, I think it would be a -- well, A, it would be bad for the country, and B, I think it would be bad politically for the Democrats."

Here is video of Ann Coulter on the Glenn Beck Show yesterday where she talked about what will happen if the Democrats try to ram their Government Health Care plan through the Senate using the "nuclear option," meaning the "reconciliation process" that requires only 51 votes to bring it to the floor for a final vote.

Coulter said that if the Democrats do that, they will bring on a "massive Republican victory" in the 2010 Congressional elections.

Zogby: Obama Hits Record Low in Poll - ONLY 45% APPROVAL

(Newsmax).President Barack Obama's popularity has plummeted to a record low, with just 45 percent of voters now approving of his performance, according to the latest Zogby International poll.

Asked whether they approve or disapprove of the president's job performance, just 45 percent of likely voters say they approve. That compares with 51 percent who disapprove of the job Obama is doing.

Those numbers also indicate that Obama clearly is in serious political trouble, Fox News analyst and best-selling author Dick Morris tells Newsmax.

"As soon as Obama dropped below 52 percent . . . he was leaking real voters who had backed him in November," Morris tells Newsmax. "Now that he is down to 45 percent among likely voters . . . he is in deep political trouble."

Of greatest concern to Obama may well be his decline among all-important independent voters. Just 37.5 percent of self-identified independents say they approve of how Obama is handling the presidency. That compares with 59.2 percent of independents who disapprove.

"There is nothing counterintuitive in any of these numbers," pollster John Zogby of Zogby International tells Newsmax. "The president is clearly taken a slide — most especially with independent voters, who play such an important role in any legislation or policy support.

While this latest poll shows Democrats continue to overwhelmingly approve of Obama's job performance (84%), just 6% of Republicans say the same. Most independents (59%) now disapprove of the job the President is doing.

"Interestingly, the president had been making some inroads with groups like investors, and frequent Walmart shoppers . . . both typically conservative," Zogby says. "However, he has slipped considerably with them in this poll."

Zogby adds: "The healthcare plan appears to be consolidating conservative opposition and scaring independent voters."

Steele Dares Democrats to Pass Health Overhaul On Their Own

(Foxnews).Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele on Thursday dared Democrats to try a one-party push to overhaul the nation's health care system.

Steele told reporters that he thinks if Democratic senators think they have the votes, they should try a tactic that would allow them to get around a bill-killing filibuster without the 60 votes usually needed. Steele said he didn't think Democrats would do it because of potential voter backlash.

"Get it to the floor. Up or down, baby," Steele said at a news conference at the state GOP headquarters. "Put it on the table. And if you don't think you've got enough votes to get to 60, you've got the nuclear option. You've got 51."

Steele was in Little Rock for a closed-door round-table discussion of health care and to headline a fundraiser for the Arkansas Republican Party.

"You want it done? Pass the bill," Steele said. "But they know it's poisonous and they know the American people will not tolerate it. They're scrambling now and they're beginning to turn on each other because they've got a big problem, a political one, and they can't solve it."

Faith in Obama Drops TO 49%

(WAPO).Public confidence in President Obama's leadership has declined sharply over the summer, amid intensifying opposition to health-care reform that threatens to undercut his attempt to enact major changes to the system, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Among all Americans, 49 percent now express confidence that Obama will make the right decisions for the country, down from 60 percent at the 100-day mark in his presidency. Forty-nine percent now say they think he will be able to spearhead significant improvements in the system, down nearly 20 percentage points from before he took office.

Fewer than half of Americans, 45 percent, support reform as it's been explained to date, while 50 percent are opposed – with many more "strongly" opposed than strongly in favor, 40 percent vs. 27 percent. Support's at just 36 percent among independents, the crucial political center.

As challenges to Obama's initiatives have mounted over the summer, pessimism in the nation's direction has risen: Fifty-five percent see things as pretty seriously on the wrong track, up from 48 percent in April.

Thursday, August 20, 2009

Obama accuses Republicans using Political Playbook: My Attitude is Lets get this done with Consensus..

Obama fires back at political critics: "Everybody in Washington Gets All Wee Weed Up!"

(Breitbart).President Barack Obama launched a mocking counter-attack Thursday at pundits who believe the euphoric early promise of his presidency is evaporating amid bitter political warfare.

Obama, who has watched his poll ratings dip sharply over recent months, drew comparisons to his 2008 presidential campaign, which was several times all but written off by media experts who set prevailing political wisdom.

"We have been through this before, in Iowa," Obama said, referring to the first state to hold a 2008 Democratic nominating contest, which saw him capture a come-from-behind win.

"All Washington said 'Oh, it's over,' hand-wringing angst ..."

Then Obama drew parallels to the media frenzy that greeted the nomination of firebrand Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin in 2008.

"The media was obsessed with it, cable was 24 hours a day," Obama told a friendly audience of grass-roots Democratic activists at a Washington forum broadcast live over the web.

"'Obama's lost his mojo,' you remember all that?

"There is something about August going into September where everybody in Washington gets all wee weed up!"

Obama's counter-punch, delivered at a meeting of his Organizing for America network of supporters, follows a run of town-hall appearances and speeches, which have seen him mount a stern defense of his health care reform plan, which is facing stiff Republican attacks.

He told backers not to get obsessed with polls, pundits and "cable chatter" but to take aim at what he described as fabrications drummed up by opponents to doom his top domestic priority.

"We are going to have to cut through a lot of nonsense out there," he said

Marco Rubio gets major plug as National Review Coverboy

National Review, a serious political journal of wingnuttery, which has recently featured Carrie Prejean and a Buddha-fied Sonia Sotomayor with the word "Wise Latino" on its cover has chosen Marco Rubio as their next coverboy.
Rubio Rising-The Florida GOP has a new star BY JOHN J. MILLER:
"...The details of the Mason–Dixon poll suggest that he’ll have a fighting chance. Among Republicans who are familiar with both candidates, Crist’s lead slips to statistical insignificance. It’s basically a dead heat. “I’m not a kamikaze,” says Rubio. “At this time next year, you’re going to be analyzing a very different race.” For that prediction to come true, conservatives in Florida and around the country will have to turn Rubio’s candidacy into a cause.

"....In 1998, at the age of 26, Rubio stepped into public life: He won a race to serve on the West Miami city commission. The next year, a spot opened in the state legislature. Rubio declared his candidacy in the special election and finished second in the Republican primary. This led to a runoff, and a lot of hustling: He walked neighborhoods, knocked on doors, and raised enough money to broadcast a few radio ads. In the end, he pulled off a minor upset, winning by 64 votes. It was the last time he faced a difficult race. The district was safe for Republicans, and voters sent him back to Tallahassee four times. Last year, term limits prevented him from running again.

As a young legislator, Rubio caught the eye of his elders. “He’s got all the tools,” says Jeb Bush, the former governor. “He’s charismatic and has the right principles.” Rubio compiled a conservative voting record and started to climb the GOP’s leadership ladder, eventually becoming speaker of the House. The capitol’s veterans occasionally mistook him for an aide: Lt. Gov. Toni Jennings once marched into his office, handed him a stack of papers, and asked him to make copies. At the time, Rubio was majority leader. “I did make the copies,” he says. For the most part, however, his youth was an asset. “I watched him grow up in the House,” says Lindsay Harrington, a former speaker pro tem. “He has an amazing ability to deliver a message -- when he gives a speech, you can hear a pin drop.”

That’s what observers say about Rubio, over and over again: He’s a first-rate communicator. “He has a gift,” says Larry Cretul, the current House speaker. “People love listening to him.” He certainly has a flair for one-liners. Cap-and-trade legislation, he says, “will do nothing but make America one of the cleanest Third World economies.”

Obama Ally Andy Stern: Dem Majority Is History If Health Reform Fails

(ABC News).Teddy Davis reports:A top Obama ally predicted Wednesday in an interview with ABC News that Democrats will lose their congressional majority in next year's midterm elections if they fail to put a health-care reform bill on President Obama's desk.

"I think we're talking losing control of Congress," said Andy Stern, the president of the Service Employees International Union. "[The failure of health-care reform] would totally empower Republicans to kill all change."

"It's hard to imagine the Democrats convincing the public that Republicans are to blame for health-care reform going down when the Democrats have such large majorities," he added. "After last year's promise of change, voters will start feeling buyer's remorse."

Stern, who was invited to sit with the Obama family during the president's inaugural parade, is watched closely on health-care reform not only because of the labor muscle he wields as the head of the 2-million member SEIU but also because of the effort he has made to work with business groups: in 2007, he started "Divided We Fail," a coalition which joined SEIU and AARP with the Business Roundtable and National Federation of Independent Business to promote the general principle of universal health care coverage.

Quinnipiac: Obama Approval Hits New Low In Florida - 47%percent approval rating

President Barack Obama gets a 47 - 48 percent approval rating from Florida voters, down from 58 - 35 percent June 10, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This is President Obama's lowest approval in any national or statewide poll conducted by the independent Quinnipiac University.

"Although he still gets a 51 - 44 percent favorability rating, that's down from 62 - 32 percent in June and the President's 47 - 48 percent thumbs down verdict on his job performance makes Florida the first state in which a Quinnipiac University survey shows his job approval is underwater, even if his nose is right at the surface," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "This is also the first time that President Obama's approval rating has fallen below the 51 percent of the popular vote that he won in Florida.

PPP Poll Huckabee and Romney strongest candidates against Obama

(PPP).In this particular iteration of the poll, Huckabee comes the closest to Obama that he has yet, trailing just 47-44. That's tightened since the President led 48-42 a month ago,Huckabee also has the best overall favorability rating of the Republican quartet we tested, at 45/28.

After Huckabee Mitt Romney polls the closest to Obama and also has the second best net favorability rating, at 37/34 (21% of Obama's voters view him favorable), 29% are not sure, He trails 47-40 in a head to head...And he's the least popular of this quartet with GOP voters. Only 52% have a favorable opinion of him.

Palin's now dropped to 40/49. Among Democrats she's gone from 25% with a favorable opinion of her to 15%, and among independents she's gone from 45% to 37%.In her head to head contest with Obama, Palin is down 52-38 after her 51-43 deficit.

CNN: Romney care could be model for national Health care reform

Romney on 'The Early Show': Liberals given too much say in health care

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

"A prayer of one overwhelmed with trouble, pouring out problems before the LORD. LORD, hear my prayer! Listen to my plea"(Psalms 102,1).

(washingtonjewishweek).President Barack Obama needs some outside help pushing health care reform, and he's turning to rabbis to get it.

In a morning conference call with about 1000 rabbis from across the nation, Obama asked for aid: "I am going to need your help in accomplishing necessary reform," the President told the group, according to Rabbi Jack Moline, who tweeted his way through the phoner.

"We are God's partners in matters of life and death," Obama went on to say, according to Moline's real-time stream.

The 15-minute morning briefing was sponsored by the Religion Action Center of Reform Judaism, and included rabbis of all persuasions. Although the RAC hosts the call each year, participants had never before heard from a sitting president.

What stood out about the call is that Obama "is a master communicator," Moline, the rabbi of the Conservative Agudas Achim Congregation in Alexandria, said in an interview after the call ended,"This was clearly a message that was tailored to us," and not merely a generic stump speech, he added.

Steele: The GOP is winning...The American people are taking control of this debate

(The Note).ABC’s Steven Portnoy reports: As the White House struggles to clarify the administration’s position on a “public option,” the chairman of the Republican National Committee says Democrats are seeing the health care debate “moving beneath their feet.”

“I think we're in a very confused space right now,” Michael Steele told ABC News Radio in an interview Tuesday. “The Democrats are feeling the pressure within, as well as without, more than anything else.I think the political landscape is moving beneath their feet,They don't quite know what to make of it, or what to do with it.”

Steele angrily denies his party is worthy of the criticism:“Don't sit there and point your finger at Republicans, and say we're in the way. How are we in the way?” Steele inquired. “Asking questions? Speaking truth to power? When [Democrats] get in trouble, they look for demagogues and demons. We're not gonna be the boogeymen in this,” Steele said.

“How many votes do I have in the Senate, Mr. President? How many votes do I have in the House?” Steele asked. “I control nothing, sir. You've got it all. It's all yours. If you want the bill passed, pass it!… You've got the votes -- pull the trigger!”

The Republican chairman said he’s not concerned about the level of vitriol that’s been expressed at town hall meetings held by members of congress this month.

“I wasn't around in the 1800s and the 1700s, but I'm a student of history and politics, and I know what those political squabbles, if you will, were like – a lot more violent, if you will. People were dueling and all kinds of other things going on in those days.”

“If you don't like the heat, get out of the kitchen,” Steele said. “And the reality of it right now is that the American people are bringing heat to the table.The American people are taking control of this debate, as they should, and God bless 'em for doing it.”
"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty" (Churchill)