Monday, October 26, 2009

THE RED MOUNTAIN VA ELECTION '09: Washington Post poll: McDonnell has double-digit lead in Va. governor's race

(Washington Post).Republican Robert F. McDonnell carries a double-digit lead over Democrat R. Creigh Deeds into the final week of the campaign for Virginia governor, according to a new Washington Post poll.

The Republican, briefly buffeted in the polls by voters' initial reaction to the publication of his 1989 graduate school thesis, has rebounded to big advantages on the top issues, particularly taxes, and is now seen as the more effective leader, more honest and more empathetic.

McDonnell is also buoyed by support outside of Northern Virginia, where he is currently outperforming all other top-of-the-ticket Republican candidates this decade. Statewide, McDonnell now leads Deeds among likely voters by a 55 to 44 percent margin. McDonnell, who narrowly defeated Deeds in the race for attorney general four years ago, has been above 50 percent in all four Post polls in the campaign.

About three in 10 Virginia voters say their vote will be based in part on their perceptions of President Obama, who is scheduled to campaign in Norfolk with Deeds Tuesday. But as many say they will be motivated by their desire to express support for the president as to voice opposition to him, partial evidence that Obama himself may not be able to decisively sway the race.
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Seven in 10 say the president -- who remains relatively popular with an approval rating of 54 percent among likely voters and 57 percent among all those registered to vote -- won't be a factor in their vote one way or the other. These findings suggest that the Virginia race may not be the early referendum on the Obama presidency that it is often held up to be.

McDonnell is now in a position of significant strength with widening advantages on central issues as the campaign enters its final days.

McDonnell holds double-digit advantages when it comes to dealing with the economy (plus 17 percentage points), transportation (16 points), taxes (25 points) and has overtaken Deeds as the one more trusted to handle issues of special concern to women (7 points). On taxes, which has been a focal point of the campaign in recent weeks, McDonnell has stretched his lead significantly, and now holds a better than 2 to 1 lead over Deeds among independent voters.

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"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty" (Churchill)