(washingtonpost).Republican Robert F. McDonnell has taken a commanding lead over R. Creigh Deeds in the race for governor of Virginia, as momentum the Democrat had built with an attack on his opponent's conservative social views has dissipated, according to a new Washington Post 
poll.
McDonnell leads 53 to 44 percent among likely voters, expanding on the four-point lead he held in mid-September. Deeds's advantage with female voters has all but disappeared and McDonnell has grown his already wide margin among independents.
Much of the movement since last month, when a Post poll showed Deeds closing in on McDonnell, has come in Northern Virginia. A 17-point Deeds lead there has been whittled significantly, with his support waning substantially in Northern Virginia's left-leaning inner suburbs.
Republicans are also well positioned to sweep the other two statewide races, with Bill Bolling and Ken Cuccinelli each holding identical 49 to 40 percent leads over Democrats Jody Wagner and Steve Shannon for lieutenant governor and attorney general.
The new poll comes at a particularly critical moment for Deeds, whose campaign has stumbled in recent weeks. Deeds has struggled in several appearances in Northern Virginia, including a debate last month in Fairfax County that he followed by bungling questions from reporters about whether he supports a tax increase. That scene has been turned into a campaign commercial by Republicans and is airing across the state.
Prominent party members have also been openly criticizing the focus and tone of Deeds's campaign. He also failed to win the endorsement of fellow Democrat L. Douglas Wilder, likely dampening his support among African Americans, and President Obama has not committed to campaigning for him in the final weeks of the race.
If national Democrats begin to view the race as unwinnable and focus their resources on New Jersey, the nation's only other gubernatorial election this year, Deeds could be further hamstrung. Democrats are not eager to lose both races, which are considered early indicators of Obama's leadership and a harbinger of next year's midterm congressional elections. Polls in New Jersey show an increasingly competitive race between incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine and Republican Chris Christie.
With a little more than three weeks before Election Day, the poll shows McDonnell in a powerful position. By double-digit margins voters believe he would better handle virtually every major issue facing Virginians, including transportation, taxes, education, the state budget and the economy. Only on issues of special concern to women does Deeds hold a tepid 47 to 41 point advantage.
McDonnell's supporters are also more enthusiastic than Deeds's and more voters say they believe he has advanced new ideas for the state. Deeds now trails among independent voters by a striking 21 percentage point margin -- 59 to 38 percent.
Despite a concerted advertising campaign by Deeds about controversial views McDonnell expressed about working women in his thesis -- the one area where the Republican had appeared vulnerable -- the erosion of support among women and Northern Virginians suggests that the line of attack might have run its course.
For the first time, a majority of voters, 51 percent, say McDonnell is "about right" ideologically, despite Democratic efforts to characterize the GOP candidate as out-of-touch with mainstream Virginia voters. More now see Deeds as "too liberal" than see McDonnell as "too conservative" (44 to 37 percent). Moreover, just 15 percent of voters see the thesis as "very important" in deciding how to vote, putting it well behind jobs, health care, education, taxes and transportation as a top concern.
Deeds has also failed to appeal to core Democratic constituencies -- a finding that might provide his effort a measure of hope. Only half of the voters who backed Obama a year ago said they are certain to vote in November, compared with the two-thirds of voters who backed Republican John McCain. That leaves a large pool of voters open to voting for a Democrat, if Deeds can win them over.
poll.McDonnell leads 53 to 44 percent among likely voters, expanding on the four-point lead he held in mid-September. Deeds's advantage with female voters has all but disappeared and McDonnell has grown his already wide margin among independents.
Much of the movement since last month, when a Post poll showed Deeds closing in on McDonnell, has come in Northern Virginia. A 17-point Deeds lead there has been whittled significantly, with his support waning substantially in Northern Virginia's left-leaning inner suburbs.
Republicans are also well positioned to sweep the other two statewide races, with Bill Bolling and Ken Cuccinelli each holding identical 49 to 40 percent leads over Democrats Jody Wagner and Steve Shannon for lieutenant governor and attorney general.
The new poll comes at a particularly critical moment for Deeds, whose campaign has stumbled in recent weeks. Deeds has struggled in several appearances in Northern Virginia, including a debate last month in Fairfax County that he followed by bungling questions from reporters about whether he supports a tax increase. That scene has been turned into a campaign commercial by Republicans and is airing across the state.
Prominent party members have also been openly criticizing the focus and tone of Deeds's campaign. He also failed to win the endorsement of fellow Democrat L. Douglas Wilder, likely dampening his support among African Americans, and President Obama has not committed to campaigning for him in the final weeks of the race.
If national Democrats begin to view the race as unwinnable and focus their resources on New Jersey, the nation's only other gubernatorial election this year, Deeds could be further hamstrung. Democrats are not eager to lose both races, which are considered early indicators of Obama's leadership and a harbinger of next year's midterm congressional elections. Polls in New Jersey show an increasingly competitive race between incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine and Republican Chris Christie.
With a little more than three weeks before Election Day, the poll shows McDonnell in a powerful position. By double-digit margins voters believe he would better handle virtually every major issue facing Virginians, including transportation, taxes, education, the state budget and the economy. Only on issues of special concern to women does Deeds hold a tepid 47 to 41 point advantage.
McDonnell's supporters are also more enthusiastic than Deeds's and more voters say they believe he has advanced new ideas for the state. Deeds now trails among independent voters by a striking 21 percentage point margin -- 59 to 38 percent.
Despite a concerted advertising campaign by Deeds about controversial views McDonnell expressed about working women in his thesis -- the one area where the Republican had appeared vulnerable -- the erosion of support among women and Northern Virginians suggests that the line of attack might have run its course.
For the first time, a majority of voters, 51 percent, say McDonnell is "about right" ideologically, despite Democratic efforts to characterize the GOP candidate as out-of-touch with mainstream Virginia voters. More now see Deeds as "too liberal" than see McDonnell as "too conservative" (44 to 37 percent). Moreover, just 15 percent of voters see the thesis as "very important" in deciding how to vote, putting it well behind jobs, health care, education, taxes and transportation as a top concern.
Deeds has also failed to appeal to core Democratic constituencies -- a finding that might provide his effort a measure of hope. Only half of the voters who backed Obama a year ago said they are certain to vote in November, compared with the two-thirds of voters who backed Republican John McCain. That leaves a large pool of voters open to voting for a Democrat, if Deeds can win them over.
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