(Gallup). Roughly a year before the 2010 midterm elections, Gallup finds the Republican and Democratic Parties nearly tied in the congressional ballot preferences of registered voters. Forty-six percent of registered voters say they would vote for the Democrat and 44% say the Republican when asked which party's candidate they would support for Congress, if the election were held today.
The Democratic Party held a slightly wider, six percentage-point lead on this important indicator of party strength in July, 50% to 44%. However, both 2009 results show a more competitive political environment than Gallup has generally seen since before the Democrats regained control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2006 midterm elections. Closer to elections, Gallup bases its results on "likely voters." Doing so typically improves the Republicans' positioning by several points; thus, when Democrats lead slightly among registered voters, it is possible for Republicans to be ahead among likely voters.
"The Republican Party's relatively strong position on the generic ballot in the latest poll, conducted Oct. 1-4, stems from the support of political independents, who now favor Republican over Democratic candidates by 45% to 36%."
As Gallup's "generic ballot" trend shows, the Democrats held a sizable lead among registered voters from about March 2006 through most of 2008. The Republicans nearly tied the Democrats immediately following the Republican National Convention in September 2008, but that proved short-lived. The gap widened to 7 points by mid-October, and to 15 points immediately prior to the 2008 elections -- not only securing the Democrats' victory, but enabling them to greatly expand their majority position.
The Republican Party's relatively strong position on the generic ballot in the latest poll, conducted Oct. 1-4, stems from the support of political independents, who now favor Republican over Democratic candidates by 45% to 36%. In July, independents were evenly divided in their party voting preferences, whereas last fall they showed a clear preference for the Democrats.
Across these surveys, at least 90% each of Republicans and of Democrats have said they plan to vote for their own party's candidate. Today, that figure is 93% for the Democrats and 92% for the Republicans.
The Democratic Party held a slightly wider, six percentage-point lead on this important indicator of party strength in July, 50% to 44%. However, both 2009 results show a more competitive political environment than Gallup has generally seen since before the Democrats regained control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2006 midterm elections. Closer to elections, Gallup bases its results on "likely voters." Doing so typically improves the Republicans' positioning by several points; thus, when Democrats lead slightly among registered voters, it is possible for Republicans to be ahead among likely voters.
"The Republican Party's relatively strong position on the generic ballot in the latest poll, conducted Oct. 1-4, stems from the support of political independents, who now favor Republican over Democratic candidates by 45% to 36%."
As Gallup's "generic ballot" trend shows, the Democrats held a sizable lead among registered voters from about March 2006 through most of 2008. The Republicans nearly tied the Democrats immediately following the Republican National Convention in September 2008, but that proved short-lived. The gap widened to 7 points by mid-October, and to 15 points immediately prior to the 2008 elections -- not only securing the Democrats' victory, but enabling them to greatly expand their majority position.
The Republican Party's relatively strong position on the generic ballot in the latest poll, conducted Oct. 1-4, stems from the support of political independents, who now favor Republican over Democratic candidates by 45% to 36%. In July, independents were evenly divided in their party voting preferences, whereas last fall they showed a clear preference for the Democrats.
Across these surveys, at least 90% each of Republicans and of Democrats have said they plan to vote for their own party's candidate. Today, that figure is 93% for the Democrats and 92% for the Republicans.
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