Tuesday, October 27, 2009

THE GARDEN OF HOPE NJ ELECTION '09: PPP poll: Christie now leads Corzine 42-38, Christie's support is firm

(PPP).Chris Christie now leads Jon Corzine 42-38 in the race to be New Jersey's next Governor, a slight increase from our poll two weeks that showed his advantage at 40-39.

Chris Daggett's candidacy appears to be having a major impact on this race. His support is steady at 13% from two weeks ago but whereas before he appeared to be drawing voters away from Christie he now seems to be hurting Corzine. 44% of Daggett voters say that the incumbent is their second choice to 32% for Christie. The previous poll showed those second choice votes going to Christie by a 48-34 margin. 43% of Daggett voters are Democrats to just 9% who are Republicans.

It's clear that Christie's negative ads against Daggett have been effective and money well spent. Where his favorability rating broke down 30/24 positively two weeks ago, it's now 31/36 in a negative direction. His drop has been particularly strong with Republicans. 47% now see him unfavorably where before it was 31%.

There are several indications within the numbers that Christie is in a better position than Corzine one week out from the election. 95% of his supporters say they will definitely vote for him, compared to 79% of Corzine's. 42% of Christie's voters are very excited about voting this fall to 29% of Corzine's who express that sentiment. The comparative excitement levels could have implications for which candidate is better able to get his supporters out.

It's not enthusiasm about Christie that's drawing his voters out, but intense dislike of Corzine. 71% of Corzine's supporters say they're voting more for him than against his opponents. But among Christie voters just 49% say their motivation is to support him while 47% say they're turning out to vote against someone.

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"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty" (Churchill)