(The Early Line).It’s Triple Crown season, and time for an early handicapping of the 2012 Republican presidential field.
As with horse racing, where the fastest horse out of the gate often fades in the stretch 'early speed in a presidential race can be very misleading.
With that in mind, here are some very early odds for the 2012 Republican horse race:
Mitt Romney: 2-1.
History makes him the favorite. Ronald Reagan, George H. W. Bush, Bob Dole and John McCain all finished second in G.O.P. primary races before turning around and claiming the nomination the next time it came open.
There is some debate over whether Romney actually finished second in 2008, since Mike Huckabee actually finished with more delegates than Romney. But Romney deserves the designation for several reasons: (1) he received more popular votes and won more primaries and caucuses than Huckabee; (2) he demonstrated broader appeal; and (3) Huckabee inflated his delegate share by staying in the race even after it was clear he couldn’t win and everyone else had dropped out.
Since the November election, Romney has been relatively quiet, but he’s working hard to seal the deal with the conservative activists who weren’t completely sold on him last year. Just this week, he made a typically red-meat-laden speech to the N.R.A., ripping President Obama for teaming up with “left-wing law professors and editorial boards” to craft national security policy. There are clear signs of his enduring strength: He won CPAC’s February straw poll, and he seems to have scared John Huntsman, a potential ’12 rival, all the way to China.
No comments:
Post a Comment