Wednesday, January 20, 2010

WSJ/NBC Poll: 41% want a Republican Congress, among highly interested voters Republicans are preferred 50-35

(WSJ).As Barack Obama enters his second year in office amid an enduring economic downturn, voters are less optimistic about his ability to succeed and no longer clearly favor keeping the Democrats in control of Congress, according to the new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll.

The trends point to an increasingly difficult political climate for President Obama as he hopes to push his domestic agenda beyond health care this year and preserve his party's majorities in the House and Senate. The severity of that climate, in fact, was promptly underscored by Democrats' surprising loss of a Senate seat in Massachusetts Tuesday. The seat of the late Edward Kennedy went to a conservative Republican, Scott Brown, in one of the nation's bluest states.

That may not be an anomaly. Nationally, the new survey finds, voters now are evenly split over which party they hope will run Capitol Hill after the November elections—the first time Democrats haven't had the edge on that question since December 2003.

Moreover, Republicans are far more excited than Democrats to turn out and vote in November: 55% of Republican voters said they were "very interested" in the election, compared with 38% of Democrats.

Three-quarters said they liked Mr. Obama, who put his political capital on the line by campaigning for fellow Democrat Martha Coakley in Massachusetts. But just 22% said they were "optimistic and confident" about his presidency—a 10-point decline from a year ago. By comparison, 27% were "pessimistic and worried" about his presidency, compared with just 9% a year ago, when many hoped he would lead the nation into an economic recovery.

Overall, 48% said they approved of the job Mr. Obama is doing, while 43% disapproved—about the same as last month but down sharply from approval ratings in the 60% range in his early months in office.

The numbers reflect the stubborn economic slump in which joblessness stands at 10% and many Americans are angry about government bailouts of Wall Street and the auto industry. "This president came in under extremely difficult circumstances, but the expectations were Rooseveltian, and he has been far more ordinary," says Democratic pollster Peter Hart, who conducted the survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff. "They like him, but year two will determine whether they see him as the leader to solve our problems rather than just a charming,

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"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty" (Churchill)