(FOX25, myfoxboston) - A poll released a day before the special Senate race shows Senator Scott Brown surging to a double-digit lead over Attorney General Martha Coakley in the race for the open Massachusetts Senate seat.
The shift in favor of the Republican Party is a potential disaster for President Barack Obama and his Democratic political agenda.
Brown has surged to a double-digit lead over Coakley in three Massachusetts communities identified as bellwethers, according to the latest SuffolkUniversitybellwether polling of the race for U.S. Senate.
Gardner, Fitchburg and Peabody all show solid margins for Brown, the state senator running against Coakley. The cities were identified as bellwether communities because in the most recent "like election" - the November 2006 Senate race between the late Sen. Edward M. Kennedy and Republican challenger Kenneth Chase - the results in all three communities were within 1 percentage point of the actual statewide results for each candidate. Additionally, party registration in those cities is similar to the statewide voter makeup.
"Brown has continued to build on the momentum that we saw last week in the SuffolkUniversity statewide poll," said David Paleologos, director of the SuffolkUniversityPoliticalResearchCenter in Boston. "There's still a day left, and a number of factors, including weather, can affect turnout, but the latest bellwether polls suggest a solid lead for Brown."
SuffolkUniversity released a statewide poll Thursday, Jan. 14, that showed Brown (50 percent) leading Coakley (46 percent) by 4 points. The results showed a race within a margin of error of 4.38.
The bellwether polling, conducted Saturday, Jan. 16, and Sunday, Jan. 17, shows:
Brown (55%) leads Coakley (40%) by 15 points in Gardner. Independent candidate Joseph L. Kennedy polls 2%, while 3% are undecided.
In Fitchburg, Brown (55%) has a 14-point lead over Coakley (41%), with 2% for Kennedy and 2% undecided.
Peabody voters give Brown (57%), a 17-point lead over Coakley (40%), with Kennedy polling 1% and 3% undecided.
The bellwether polls are designed to predict outcomes and not margins. Suffolk's bellwether polls have been 96% accurate in picking straight-up winners when taken within three days of an election since 2006.
Results of the November 2006 survey in the three bellwether communities closely traced the final statewide outcome.
Those 2006 results were as follows:
· Statewide: Edward M. Kennedy (D), 67%; Kenneth Chase (R), 29%; blanks, 4%
· Gardner: Kennedy, 68%; Chase, 30%; blanks, 3%
· Fitchburg: Kennedy, 67%; Chase, 30%; blanks, 4%
· Peabody: Kennedy, 67%; Chase, 29%; blanks, 4%
Party registration in the three bellwether communities largely mirrors statewide registration, with the following breakdown:
· Massachusetts statewide: Democrats, 36%; Republicans, 12%; unenrolled, 52%
· Gardner: Democrats, 35%; Republicans, 12%; unenrolled, 53%
· Fitchburg: Democrats, 34%; Republicans, 11%; unenrolled, 55%
· Peabody: Democrats, 35%; Republicans, 9%; unenrolled, 56%
The shift in favor of the Republican Party is a potential disaster for President Barack Obama and his Democratic political agenda.
Brown has surged to a double-digit lead over Coakley in three Massachusetts communities identified as bellwethers, according to the latest SuffolkUniversitybellwether polling of the race for U.S. Senate.
Gardner, Fitchburg and Peabody all show solid margins for Brown, the state senator running against Coakley. The cities were identified as bellwether communities because in the most recent "like election" - the November 2006 Senate race between the late Sen. Edward M. Kennedy and Republican challenger Kenneth Chase - the results in all three communities were within 1 percentage point of the actual statewide results for each candidate. Additionally, party registration in those cities is similar to the statewide voter makeup.
"Brown has continued to build on the momentum that we saw last week in the SuffolkUniversity statewide poll," said David Paleologos, director of the SuffolkUniversityPoliticalResearchCenter in Boston. "There's still a day left, and a number of factors, including weather, can affect turnout, but the latest bellwether polls suggest a solid lead for Brown."
SuffolkUniversity released a statewide poll Thursday, Jan. 14, that showed Brown (50 percent) leading Coakley (46 percent) by 4 points. The results showed a race within a margin of error of 4.38.
The bellwether polling, conducted Saturday, Jan. 16, and Sunday, Jan. 17, shows:
Brown (55%) leads Coakley (40%) by 15 points in Gardner. Independent candidate Joseph L. Kennedy polls 2%, while 3% are undecided.
In Fitchburg, Brown (55%) has a 14-point lead over Coakley (41%), with 2% for Kennedy and 2% undecided.
Peabody voters give Brown (57%), a 17-point lead over Coakley (40%), with Kennedy polling 1% and 3% undecided.
The bellwether polls are designed to predict outcomes and not margins. Suffolk's bellwether polls have been 96% accurate in picking straight-up winners when taken within three days of an election since 2006.
Results of the November 2006 survey in the three bellwether communities closely traced the final statewide outcome.
Those 2006 results were as follows:
· Statewide: Edward M. Kennedy (D), 67%; Kenneth Chase (R), 29%; blanks, 4%
· Gardner: Kennedy, 68%; Chase, 30%; blanks, 3%
· Fitchburg: Kennedy, 67%; Chase, 30%; blanks, 4%
· Peabody: Kennedy, 67%; Chase, 29%; blanks, 4%
Party registration in the three bellwether communities largely mirrors statewide registration, with the following breakdown:
· Massachusetts statewide: Democrats, 36%; Republicans, 12%; unenrolled, 52%
· Gardner: Democrats, 35%; Republicans, 12%; unenrolled, 53%
· Fitchburg: Democrats, 34%; Republicans, 11%; unenrolled, 55%
· Peabody: Democrats, 35%; Republicans, 9%; unenrolled, 56%
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