(Gallup).The year 2009 marked the end of a three-year run of majority Democratic support among U.S. adults. Last year, an average of 49.0% of Americans identified as Democrats or said they leaned Democratic, the party's first yearly average below 50% since 2005. Still, Democrats maintained an average eight-point advantage in support over Republicans last year, as 40.7% of Americans identified as Republicans or leaned Republican.
The 2009 results are based on aggregated data from all Gallup and USA Today/Gallup polls conducted last year, encompassing interviews with more than 21,000 Americans. In each poll, Gallup asks Americans whether they consider themselves Republicans, Democrats, or independents. Independents are subsequently asked if they lean to the Republican or Democratic Party.
"The increase in overall GOP support is owing to an increase in the percentage of Republican-leaning independents, from 11% in the first quarter to 15% in the third and fourth quarters."
The 2009 yearly averages do not tell the whole story of changes in party support last year, as they to some degree obscure the sharp decline in the Democrats' advantage over the course of the year. In the first quarter of 2009, coincident with the beginning of the Obama administration, Democrats enjoyed one of the largest advantages for either party since 1991, 13 percentage points (51.7% of Americans identified as Democrats or leaned Democratic, versus 38.7% who identified as or leaned Republican). In each subsequent quarter, the percentage of Democratic supporters declined, and by the fourth quarter, the Democratic advantage had shrunk to 5 points (47.2% to 42.2%).
The five-point party gap in the fourth quarter of 2009 represents the smallest Democratic advantage since the second quarter of 2005. Thus, the gains the Democratic Party made in public support during the last several years of the George W. Bush administration have disappeared.
Though total Republican support did increase last year, this came mostly from what can be considered "soft support." The increase in overall GOP support is owing to an increase in the percentage of Republican-leaning independents, from 11% in the first quarter to 15% in the third and fourth quarters. The percentage of Americans with a stronger attachment to the GOP -- those who initially identify themselves as Republicans -- was stable and, if anything, showed a slight decline over the course of the year. Also, there was a two-point drop in the percentage of Democratic identifiers and a two-point drop in the percentage of Democratic-leaning independents.
The 2009 results are based on aggregated data from all Gallup and USA Today/Gallup polls conducted last year, encompassing interviews with more than 21,000 Americans. In each poll, Gallup asks Americans whether they consider themselves Republicans, Democrats, or independents. Independents are subsequently asked if they lean to the Republican or Democratic Party.
"The increase in overall GOP support is owing to an increase in the percentage of Republican-leaning independents, from 11% in the first quarter to 15% in the third and fourth quarters."
The 2009 yearly averages do not tell the whole story of changes in party support last year, as they to some degree obscure the sharp decline in the Democrats' advantage over the course of the year. In the first quarter of 2009, coincident with the beginning of the Obama administration, Democrats enjoyed one of the largest advantages for either party since 1991, 13 percentage points (51.7% of Americans identified as Democrats or leaned Democratic, versus 38.7% who identified as or leaned Republican). In each subsequent quarter, the percentage of Democratic supporters declined, and by the fourth quarter, the Democratic advantage had shrunk to 5 points (47.2% to 42.2%).
The five-point party gap in the fourth quarter of 2009 represents the smallest Democratic advantage since the second quarter of 2005. Thus, the gains the Democratic Party made in public support during the last several years of the George W. Bush administration have disappeared.
Though total Republican support did increase last year, this came mostly from what can be considered "soft support." The increase in overall GOP support is owing to an increase in the percentage of Republican-leaning independents, from 11% in the first quarter to 15% in the third and fourth quarters. The percentage of Americans with a stronger attachment to the GOP -- those who initially identify themselves as Republicans -- was stable and, if anything, showed a slight decline over the course of the year. Also, there was a two-point drop in the percentage of Democratic identifiers and a two-point drop in the percentage of Democratic-leaning independents.
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