Monday, June 29, 2009

Mitt and Sarah - The King and the Queen of the GOP

(Fivethirtyeight).The 2012 Republican presidential primaries are two-and-a-half years away, but if they were starting today Sarah Palin would enter with the highest net approval ratings among self-described Republicans, according to a recent Pew poll.

According to Pew, the Alaska governor's popularity among Republicans, as measured by her net approval-minus-disapproval ratings, is +56, with former Gov. Mitt Romney and former Speaker Newt Gingrich a bit further back, at +39 and +33 respectively.

Although Palin's approval is high, and sustained compared to earlier Pew-conducted polls, Pew emphasized Romney's steady increase among not just Republicans but the broader public.

Given the troubles encountered of late by any number of first- or second-tier GOP presidential contenders, from John Ensign to Mark Sanford to Michael Steele, it may be that Romney is benefitting from a perception of a steady-as-he-goes maturity and scandal- or blunder-free eights months since the 2008 presidential election.

In the days immediately following the 2008 presidential election, among Republicans surveyed by Gallup, Palin and Romney led the field. Eight months later, they're still out in front. Perhaps the duo are riding a name-recognition advantage against a pretty weak GOP field to date. And, of course, plenty can change during the 30 months between now and the Republican caucuses in Iowa.

But for now, at least, Palin and Romney remain the frontrunners. Whether or not the GOP in fact nominates for president the person "next in line," a myth Ed recently debunked, Mitt and Sarah are still the king and queen of Republican presidential hopefuls.

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"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty" (Churchill)