(Thehill).New election data suggests Republicans have more potential Democratic targets in next year's congressional elections, giving the GOP a chance to begin a comeback after two disastrous election cycles.
Democrats have picked up 54 House seats in the last two cycles – 30 in 2006 and 24 in 2008 – leading Republicans to believe their status in the House can’t get much worse.
Because of that, Republicans believe that if GOP members made it through the last two cycles, they should be safe in 2010, allowing the National Republican Congressional Committee to turn its focus from defending incumbents to trying to pick off Democrats.
Election data recently released by Congressional Quarterly shows 49 districts voted for a Democrat in the House and GOP nominee Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) for president, providing an early cheat sheet of potential GOP targets.
Fewer districts, 34, voted for a Republican representative and President Obama. And Republicans think those representatives are safe.
“Republicans in districts won by Obama weathered one of the most difficult political environments in our party’s history, and they were elected because their records and values match those of the constituents they represent,” said Paul Lindsay, a spokesman for the NRCC.
On the other side, Democrats acknowledge that they are facing long odds in 2010 and have downplayed expectations that they will pick up more seats.
“We recognize this is going to be a challenging cycle for House Democrats,” Jennifer Crider, a spokeswoman for the DCCC said. “The Republicans have history on their side.”
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