Support for the Democratic Congressional candidates fell to a new low over the past week, allowing the GOP to move slightly head for the first time in recent years in the Generic Congressional Ballot.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that 41% said they would vote for their district’s Republican candidate while 39% would choose the Democrat.
Investors now favor Republicans by a 46% to 36% margin, while non-investors would vote Democratic by a 45% to 33% margin.
Democrats began the year holding a six or seven point lead over the GOP for the first several weeks of 2009. Over the past month, the gap has been smaller, with Democrats holding a two-to-four point lead. It remains to be seen whether the current results reflect lasting change or statistical noise.
Over the past year, Democratic support has ranged from a low of 39% to a high of 50%. In that same time period, Republicans have been preferred by 34% to 41% of voters nationwide.
FROM RACE42008:"Long-time political observers will not miss the incredible importance of this poll. Just to bring home the point, I’ve looked through results from Pew, Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, NBC/WSJ, CBS/Opinion Research, Battleground, and FOXNews/OpDyn - and I have not seen anywhere in recent history (going back to 2004) that the GOP was leading in a generic congressional ballot matchup. Indeed, the “normal” range for answers to this question is Democrats by 5-10 points.
Even in 1994, the great GOP takeover led by Newt and the Contract with America, the Democrats led the generic ballot by an average of roughly 4 points".
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