"I’m Scott Brown, I’m from Wrentham, I drive a truck and I’m asking for your vote"

(From speech at the People's rall-NRO)."....Our campaign is going strong, and the finish line is in sight. The day of decision is almost here. The whole nation is watching, but the choice on Election Day belongs to you and no one else. Friends and fellow citizens, I’m Scott Brown, I’m from Wrentham, I drive a truck and I’m asking for your vote.

When we started this campaign just a few months ago, the political machine wrote us off. A Senate seat in Massachusetts, we were told, was already spoken for – and this special election was just a minor detail that wouldn’t get in the way. The political machine already had a short-term placeholder in the Senate. Now all they needed was a long-term placeholder, and everything had been arranged.

Well, there was just one little problem with that plan – the independent-thinking people of Massachusetts wanted a real choice, and they – and you — have made this a real contest.

The voters are doing their own thinking, and the machine politicians don’t quite know how to react. So they put in a distress call to Washington, and the next thing you know, Air Force One is landing at Logan.

My first response is very simple: Democrat or Republican, the president of the United States is always welcome in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts.

Now, it wasn’t exactly a scheduled visit. Sort of a last-minute thing. The political machine controlled that Senate, he was told, and it was going to stay that way.

Well, the party bosses gave the president some bad information. This Senate seat belongs to no one person and no one political party – it belongs to the people of Massachusetts.

Maybe they also told President Obama that I had no chance at all. After all, who ever heard of guy from Wrentham getting elected to the U.S. Senate? But as the president might remember, upsets like that have been known to happen.

The president may recall as well how much he used to talk about a new kind of politics – about campaigns based on conviction, instead of just false and small-minded negative ads. Well, as long as he’s paying a visit, he might want to talk to Martha about that. Not only are her ads negative, they are malicious. How quickly the politics of hope have become replaced by the politics of desperation. Shame on Martha.

Before the president rushed to the scene, we saw my opponent standing with a former president, the governor, the senior senator, the appointed senator – the whole party establishment, right on down the line.

At the beginning, it felt like me against the machine. But guess what? I was wrong. It’s us against the machine.

I don’t need an establishment to prop me up. I stand before you as the proud candidate of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents across Massachusetts, north and south, east and west.

The party machine is in high gear for my opponent. The establishment is afraid of losing their Senate seat. You can all remind them that this is not their seat, it is yours.

Should I have the honor of representing our state in Washington, D.C., I will serve no faction but Massachusetts. I will pursue no agenda but what is right. I will be nobody’s senator but yours.

....Raising taxes, taking over our health care, and giving new rights to terrorists is the agenda of a new establishment in Washington. And they think you’re on board with all of it. They think they own your vote. They’re sure they can’t lose. But on Election Day, the Bay State will set them straight.

We are witnesses, you and I, to something historic. We have run a race never to be forgotten. We are in a cause that deserves all that we can give it. In these final forty-eight hours, let us see it through to victory.

All along, I have counted on the goodwill and support of independent-minded people like you, and never more than right now. I ask for any help you can give, and above all for the honor of your vote.

In return, I make this pledge to you and to every citizen of Massachusetts: If I am entrusted with the people’s seat, I will give everything that is in me to be a good and faithful senator, and to make you proud.

The White House Is Predicting a Coakley Loss?

(CNN) - Multiple advisers to President Obama have privately told party officials that they believe Democrat Martha Coakley is going to lose Tuesday’s special election to fill the Massachusetts Senate seat held by the late Ted Kennedy for more than 40 years, several Democratic sources told CNN Sunday.

The sources added that the advisers are still hopeful that Obama's visit to Massachusetts on Sunday - coupled with a late push by Democratic activists - could help Coakley pull out a narrow victory in an increasingly tight race against Republican state Sen. Scott Brown.

However, the presidential advisers have grown increasingly pessimistic in the last three days about Coakley's chances after a series of missteps by the candidate, sources said.

Scott Brown Takes a 10% Lead in New MRG Poll

(YidwithLid).A poll conducted by the Merriman River Group (MRG) for online newspaper InsideMedford indicates that Scott Brown leads Martha Coakley 51– 41% for Tuesday's Mass. special election. Independant candidate Joe Kennedy gets 2% support, and 6% of voters are not sure.

Brown and Coakley both have most of their supporters locked in. 98% of both candidate’s supporters say they are definitely or probably going to vote for their candidate.

This is the third poll released since Friday showing the Republican Scott Brown winning by double digit percentage points. One of those polls, the PJM poll is due to release and update at midnight tonight. There are also polls showing a smaller lead or even a Democratic Coakley lead but all of them show the vote trending toward Scott Brown. In fact, when you look at the chart below (from pollster) showing the trend of the average aggregate of all the polls, it is truly amazing the way the bottom has fallen out of the Democrat's numbers since mid -December.


According to the Medford Poll:

....nearly all of Coakley’s supporters approve of President Obama’s job performance, while three-quarters of Brown’s supporters disapprove.

Its interesting that one quarter of Browns voters approve of Obama, which shows the disapproval of Coakley.

47% of Brown’s supporters say that taxes, jobs, and the economy represent the most important issue to them in this race, while half of Coakley’s supporters say that healthcare reform is most important to them. Undecided voters are nearly evenly split between the two issues—40% say they’re most concerned with taxes, jobs, and the economy with 37% saying that healthcare reform that most concerns them. “For Coakley to have a chance, she needs to convince voters that the Democratic party’s agenda for the economy is the right one, and she needs to do it fast,” said MRG’s executive director, Matt Fitch.

Coakley's recent Anti-Brown efforts based on abortion seem to have been wasted. Only 8% of Brown’s supporters and 5% of Coakley’s supporters say abortion the most important issue to them.

The endorsement in Medford on January 7 of Martha Coakley by members of Senator Ted Kennedy’s family appears to have had little effect on most voters and to have backfired with others. 55% said that it was not important to them, but 27% said it made them less likely to vote for Coakley, while only 18% said it made them more likely to vote for her. As for undecided voters, more than two-thirds said the endorsement was not important. “The Kennedy family endorsement seems to have hurt more than it helped Coakley, despite the popularity of the Kennedys in the state and in Medford,” said Allison Goldsberry, Editor of InsideMedford.com.

What seems to tip the race in Brown’s favor most is his popularity among Moderates, Independents, and men, and Coakley’s lack of an advantage among women. Brown nearly doubles Coakley’s total among Moderates, 62% – 32%, and has an even bigger margin among Independents, 64% – 26%. There’s also a one-way gender effect that favors Brown, who holds a nearly two-to-one lead over Coakley among men while women are split evenly between the two candidates. Brown does best among white voters, while Coakley leads among non-whites, suggesting that minority turnout may play a crucial role on election day. Brown is also leading among all age groups.

Perhaps the most disturbing image about the campaign was made today by Congressman Barney Frank:

Earlier, as dignitaries arrived at the Cabot Center, U.S. Rep. Barney Frank, when asked whether Coakley’s recent dip in the polls was related to sentiments about President Obama, quipped, “President Obama is not Martha Coakley in drag.”

Polls have shown national support for Obama and his health care initiative dropping, which some pundits and pollsters have linked to Coakley’s own woes in Massachusetts, along with a failure to campaign aggressively. But Frank attributed Coakley’s recent troubles to the race becoming “a personality contest bereft of the issues.”

Scott Brown - Mitt Romney's Man

(Samuel P Jacobs-The Daily Beast). If Scott Brown pulls off an upset in the race to replace Ted Kennedy in the Senate, he may have Mitt Romney to thank. Samuel P. Jacobs on the 2012 GOP presidential hopeful's hidden hand.

There are a number of forces driving Republican Scott Brown’s surprising surge in the Massachusetts special Senate election campaign. He’s benefiting from public anger over the Obama administration’s health-care reform plan. He’s buoyed by a tide of cash from around the country, donated by conservatives eager to send a message by upsetting Democratic front-runner Martha Coakley. And then there’s the lackluster campaign Coakley herself has run.

From the start, Brown has been counseled by members of the Shawmut Group, a Boston-based consulting firm that acts as the Romney political brain trust in exile.

Largely overlooked in assessing Brown’s prospects: the hidden hand of Mitt Romney. The former Massachusetts governor headlined at a fundraiser for Brown last October. And Romney has helped Brown raise money outside the state as well. “I know Scott and how determined he is to win. I've campaigned for him, raised money on his behalf, and we're doing all we can to help him over the finish line,” Romney wrote supporters last Monday. Brown, 50, raised $1.3 million that day.

But lest anyone accuse Romney of being a Johnny-come-lately—stepping up only as Brown has vaulted from sacrificial lamb to serious threat—the 2008 presidential hopeful has lent crucial support behind the scenes from the start of Brown’s campaign. Ever since he entered the race to succeed the late Sen. Ted Kennedy, Brown has been counseled by members of the Shawmut Group, a Boston-based consulting firm that acts as the Romney political brain trust in exile. Among the many Romney disciples running Brown’s campaign are Beth Myers, the campaign manager of Romney’s presidential run; Eric Fehrnstrom, Romney’s chief spokesman; Peter Flaherty, Romney’s “go-to-guy for conservatives”; and Rob Cole, Romney’s 2008 deputy chairman manager. Beth Lindstrom, another player in Romney World, is working as Brown’s campaign manager. Lindstrom’s ties to Romney go back years; she started working with him in the Massachusetts State House as director of consumer affairs.

A Brown victory would be a huge upset—threatening the viability of Obama’s health-care plan and providing the GOP a burst of energy and confidence heading into the 2010 midterm elections this fall. It would also be a big boost for Romney’s 2012 presidential campaign. Up against a populist wave on the right that favors candidates like Sarah Palin, Romney can improve his appeal and influence by gaining the loyalty of newly elected officials. And Brown is hardly the only GOP contender Romney is helping. The Hill reported in September, Romney’s followers have spread throughout the country to help candidates in Connecticut, New Hampshire, New York, and California. Most notable among them: Former eBay CEO Meg Whitman has a stable of Romney aides helping her try to her win the governor’s mansion in Sacramento.

Romney’s role is all the more interesting because he’s not exactly Brown’s ideological soulmate. One of the winning lines of the Brown campaign was his protestation that he can’t be tied to George W. Bush and Dick Cheney. “I’m Scott Brown,” the state senator told the audience of the campaign’s only debate. “I’m from Wrentham. I drive a truck.”

Wrentham is best known for its shopping outlets. Romney, before recently decamping for New Hampshire, lived in Belmont, a tony Boston suburb, home to Harvard professors and families who send their kids to local private schools. Brown’s worked in state government since 1992; Romney made his name in private equity. Brown went to Boston College Law School, and Mitt Romney was schooled at Harvard Business School. They represent two different strands of American conservatism, or at least their New England versions.

But Romney intimates see similarities between the two.

“If you called central casting and said, ‘Give me the right candidate,’ you couldn’t get a better guy than Scott,” says Ron Kaufman, who is Massachusetts chairman of the Republican National Committee, an unofficial Brown adviser, and an adviser to Romney. Brown is married to a local newscaster and has one daughter at Syracuse; another is a former American Idol star and now plays Division I basketball at Boston College. Romney’s seemingly perfect profile—the looks, the clean-cut Mormon family—also elicited references to “central casting.”

“They are both happy warriors. They are both indefatigable. Both are kinds of policy wonks. Scott was very helpful to the governor with health care,” Kaufman says.

As Tuesday’s vote nears, Team Romney’s role in the Brown campaign is tumbling into the open. Talking to The Washington Post, strategist Eric Fehrnstrom trumpeted his campaign’s use of an ad featuring John F. Kennedy, Jr. and called the Coakley camp’s ensuing silence the turning point in the campaign.

“One thing it does say about Mitt is that his folks know how to run a campaign,” Kaufman says.

Democrats are not as psyched about the Romney crowd’s role in the Massachusetts special election; indeed, they’ve tried to make an issue of it. They point to his fingerprints on a negative ad about Coakley’s tax policy, paid for by an out-of-state group, the American Future Fund. The 30-second spot was produced by Larry McCarthy, who is famous for the “Willie Horton” ad. He too was a Romney hand in 2008.

“The Romney playbook is being used again,” says Boston-based Democratic strategist Mary Anne Marsh. She did not intend the comment as a compliment.

For Marsh, that playbook means a sharp turn to the right to attract support from national conservatives and what she calls “selective amnesia” about past legislative efforts or associates. Brown’s been hit by the Democrats for supporting an amendment which would have allowed hospital workers to refuse emergency conception to rape victims on account of religious beliefs. They’ve also pointed Brown’s effort to distance himself from out-of-state Tea Party groups.

Andrew Sullivan, for instance, wrote that he sees various contortions in Brown’s economic policies and found a “Romney-like cynicism” in a recent Boston Globe op-ed authored by the candidate.

The upside for Brown is that Romney’s team has a proven track record of success in statewide campaigns in the state. And that team has stayed remarkably cohesive through Romney’s post-gubernatorial career. That stands in marked contrast to the crackup John McCain’s aides went through following their losing 2008 campaign. And that, Romney supporters say, bodes well not only for Brown—but also for Romney’s White House chances in 2012.

“When you read the new book Game Change,” says the Republican strategist Kaufman, “the one thing that impresses you is how loyal the Obama folks were to their guy in a cycle where that was not the strong suit. The truth is the same with the Romney folks. They are dead loyal to their guy.”

McConnell: Mass Senate race is "referendum on national health-care bill"

(Politico).Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said that Tuesday's Senate election in Massachusetts is a "referendum on the national health-care bill."

"They have arrogantly ignored American public opinion all the way to this point, and they're continuing to try to get their members to ignore public opinion one more time," McConnell said during an appearance on "Fox News Sunday."

"Regardless of the outcome Tuesday, we know that in the most liberal state in America, you're going to have a close election to the United States Senate because the people of Massachusetts don't want this health-care bill passed," McConnell added. "I think the politics [of health care] are toxic for the Democrats either way... You've got this widespread public revulsion with this [Democratic legislative] program."

McConnell said President Barack Obama will face the political fallout from the health-care debate if he runs for re-election in 2012.

"Either way, whether it passes or it fails, it will be huge issue, not just in 2010, but in 2012," McConnell said. "This is a unique issue. Everybody is interested in health care, all 300 million Americans. This issue isn't going away, whether [Democrats] pass it or they don't. The American people are telling us, 'Please don't pass this bill.'"

Mitt Romney: This will be our Year

(Mitt's blog post on freestrongamerica).This will be our year -- but only if we all stand together

It seems that almost every day now brings a fresh story of another well-known Democrat incumbent not seeking re-election. And in 8 days from now, what many thought was unthinkable may happen -- Republican Scott Brown may be elected to late Senator Kennedy's seat in Massachusetts. If successful, Scott would be the first Republican Senator in Massachusetts in 30 years.

I know Scott and how determined he is to win. I've campaigned for him, raised money on his behalf and we're doing all we can to help him over the finish line.

Something is brewing in Massachusetts and all over the country, and I have a prediction to make -- for our cause, and for all those who speak for it with no apology, this will be our year.

The conservative movement is gaining momentum every day and we must keep it going during the weeks and months ahead. This all-important midterm election year will have far-reaching consequences and we must do everything we can to elect conservative candidates throughout the country.

Of course, nothing is certain in politics, but we can be certain about this: Our belief in the greatness of America and our dedication to keeping this nation strong are needed today as much as they have ever been needed in our past.

Bush and Clinton called in to action in Aiding Haiti - "just send your cash"

Coakley Internal poll: Brown +3 leading Coakley 47-44; American Research Group poll: Brown +3

(stevekornacki.blogspot).I've been told reliably that Martha Coakley's internal poll for Thursday night showed her trailing Scott Brown by three points -- 47 to 44 percent.

As I wrote yesterday, her internal poll on Wednesday night had her barely ahead, 46 to 44 percent. The appearance of continued Brown momentum meshes with the Suffolk University/WHDH poll released earlier today, which put Brown ahead 50-46 percent.

The last time a public poll showed a Republican leading a Massachusetts Senate race this close to the election was, well....never. There were no public polls released in the week leading up to the 1972 election, the last one won by a Republican (Ed Brooke, who was re-elected in a landslide over John Droney). And since then, Democrats have enjoyed the stretch-run advantage in every Senate race in the state. The closest the GOP came was in 1996, when Bill Weld was within a few points of John Kerry just before Election Day; Weld lost that race by seven points.

Another new poll is out showing Republican U.S. Senate candidate, Scott Brown, ahead in the Special Election race for Senator of Massachusetts.

The highly respected American Research Group poll shows Brown ahead by 3% over his Democrat rival, the far-Left Martha Coakley (48%-45%).

Liberals in PANIC - Schultz:“It’s the end of change as we know it” if Brown wins MA

Cook: Brown 'Really Might Win' - “There is something big going on in Massachusetts”

(NRO).“There is something big going on in Massachusetts,” says political analyst Charlie Cook in a conversation with National Review Online. He tells us that he’s “convinced” that Republican Scott Brown “really might win” the upcoming special election for U.S. Senate in the Bay State. Brown, he says, has run a “flawless, very smart campaign” while his opponent, Democrat Martha Coakley, has been “overly cautious” and run an “awful campaign.”

“This just seems to be a time where voters are looking for change and new blood,” says Cook. “The argument of continuing Senator Kennedy’s legacy doesn’t seem to be cutting a lot of ice.” The hardest thing for Brown, he says, will be breaking Massachusetts’ “almost theological” belief that Democrats usually represent them in the Senate. “There’s still a bit of resistance” to the idea of a Republican winning, he says.

A BROWN OUT!! Poll shocker: Scott Brown surges ahead in Senate race

(Bostonherald).Riding a wave of opposition to Democratic health-care reform, GOP upstart Scott Brown is leading in the U.S. Senate race, raising the odds of a historic upset that would reverberate all the way to the White House, a new poll shows.

Although Brown’s 4-point lead over Democrat Martha Coakley is within the Suffolk University/7News survey’s margin of error, the underdog’s position at the top of the results stunned even pollster David Paleologos.

“It’s a Brown-out,” said Paleologos, director of Suffolk’s Political Research Center. “It’s a massive change in the political landscape.”

The poll shows Brown, a state senator from Wrentham, besting Coakley, the state’s attorney general, by 50 percent to 46 percent, the first major survey to show Brown in the lead. Unenrolled long-shot Joseph L. Kennedy, an information technology executive with no relation to the famous family, gets 3 percent of the vote. Only 1 percent of voters were undecided.

Paleologos said bellweather models show high numbers of independent voters turning out on election day, which benefits Brown, who has 65 percent of that bloc compared to Coakley’s 30 percent. Kennedy earns just 3 percent of the independent vote, and 1 percent are undecided.

Given the 4.4-point margin of error, the poll shows Coakley could win the race, Paleologos said. But if Brown’s momentum holds, he is poised to succeed the late Sen. Edward M. Kennedy - and to halt health-care reform, the issue the late senator dubbed “the cause of my life.”

Yet even in the bluest state, it appears Kennedy’s quest for universal health care has fallen out of favor, with 51 percent of voters saying they oppose the “national near-universal health-care package” and 61 percent saying they believe the government cannot afford to pay for it.

The poll, conducted Monday through Wednesday, surveyed 500 registered likely voters who knew the date of Tuesday’s election. It shows Brown leading all regions of the state except Suffolk County.

“Either Brown’s momentum accelerates and his lead widens, or this becomes a wake-up call for Coakley to become the ‘Comeback Kid’ this weekend,” Paleologos said.

And with 99 percent having made up their minds, voters may be hard to persuade.

The poll surveyed a carefully partitioned electorate meant to match voter turnout: 39 percent Democrat, 15 percent Republican and 45 percent unenrolled.

Brown wins among men and is remarkably competitive among women - trailing Coakley’s 50 percent with 45 percent.

While Brown has 91 percent of registered Republicans locked up, an astonishing 17 percent of Democrats report they’re jumping ship for Brown as well - likely a product of Coakley’s laser-focus on hard-core Dems, potentially at the exclusion of other Democrats whom she needed to win over, Paleologos said.

For Coakley, Brown’s surge may be as ominous as the fact that her campaign’s peril is not fully recognized, with 64 percent of voters still believing she’ll win - a perception that threatens to keep her supporters home.

Brown’s popularity is solid. He enjoys a 57 percent favorability rating compared to just 19 percent unfavorable. Coakley’s favorability is 49 percent; her unfavorability, 41 percent.

No longer does Brown suffer from a name-recognition problem, with 95 percent of voters having heard of him statewide.

Four is enough! A Majority of 50 % Would Vote Against Obama in re election bid

(hotlineoncall).A year into his tenure, a majority of Americans would already vote against Pres. Obama if the '12 elections were held today, according to a new survey.

The Allstate/National Journal Heartland Monitor poll shows 50% say they would probably or definitely vote for someone else. Fully 37% say they would definitely cast a ballot against Obama. Meanwhile, just 39% would vote to re-elect the pres. to a 2nd term, and only 23% say they definitely would do so.

Obama's first year in office has been marked by an unemployment rate that surged to 10%, an increased commitment of troops to Afghanistan and a health care battle that has taken a serious political toll on the WH.

Obama's approval rating is down to 47%, the poll showed, a 14-point drop since the April survey. 45% disapprove, up 17 points from April. Only 41% say they trust Obama more than Congressional GOPers, while 33% pick the GOP over the WH. That 8-point gap is down from a 21-point edge Obama sported as recently as Sept.

Just 34% say the country is moving in the right direction, down 13 points since April, and 55% say it is off on the wrong track, up 13 points over the same period.

But as GOPers focus on taxes and spending, that message seems to be causing Obama the most harm. Among those who believe Obama's policies have moved the country in the wrong direction, 45% cite spending and government regulation as a top cause for their opposition.

New social media polling data suggests Republican Scott Brown will win in a landslide victory

The state-wide special election to fill the seat vacated by US Senator Edward Kennedy on January 19th has attracted huge national interest because if the Democrats lose this seat, they lose the filibuster-proof margin they currently have in the US Senate.

For the first time for as long I can remember, my very own home state of Massachusetts is today considered a battleground state. Recent polls show the two candidates, State Senator Scott Brown (Republican) and State Attorney General Martha Coakley (Democrat) engaged in a tight race – well within the margin of error.
Dates Scott Brown (R) Martha Coakley (D)
Public Policy Polling (PPP) January 7-9 48% 47%
Rasmussen Reports January 11 47% 49%

But being a search marketer, I launched my own investigation to see if I could find out more information about the dynamics of this US Senate race based on internet marketing and social media metrics. The findings (based on data collected on January 14) were staggering. The data suggests that conventional pollsters and Washington insiders have it completely wrong – that it won't be a tight race, and that State Senator Scott Brown will win by a landslide.
Social Media Polling Methodology

In this poll I looked at the three major social media venues – Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube – as well as the Alexa Ratings. I used the user engagement metrics that are available from the various sites in order to compare the internet presence of the two candidates.
YouTube Channels

Both candidates prominently feature a link to their respective YouTube channels on their home pages and syndicate television ads and other content on the site. Scott Brown is showing a 10:1 advantage over Martha Coakley in terms of video content viewership.
Channel Views Total Upload Views Subscribers
Martha Coakley on YouTube 8,561 24,014 58
Scott Brown on YouTube 26,622 223,678 387
Facebook Fan Pages

Facebook fan pages are a great way to connect with people and their networks. Both Scott Brown and Martha Coakley maintain their own Facebook fan pages, which are featured prominently on their homepages. Scott Brown has over a 4:1 edge in terms of number of fans.
Number of Fans
Martha Coakley Fan Page 9,398
Scott Brown Fan Page 41,050
Twitter Mentions

President Obama famously used Twitter to connect to millions of followers. Both Scott Brown and Martha Coakley employ Twitter to communicate with their fans – again, Scott Brown has the edge. He has more followers, appears on more user lists, and generates more buzz overall on Twitter.
Followers Listed Twitter Mentions
Martha Coakley on Twitter 2674 236 7210
Scott Brown on Twitter 7105 404 21500
Alexa Rankings

Alexa is an internet ratings company – think "Nielson's ratings for the internet". If the point of all the social media efforts on YouTube, Facebook and Twitter is to familiarize people with your brand and drive engagement to your website, and if Scott Brown is doing a better job than Martha Coakley in all the aforementioned social media marketing tactics, you'd expect to see more traffic to his website. And indeed we see that Scott Brown has a tenfold advantage in internet reach (i.e., an estimate of the percentage of internet users that visit their respective websites on any given day). Also noteworthy is rate at which Scott Brown has skyrocketed - in just a week – any conventional pollster will tell you that momentum is everything.

Scott Brown versus Martha Coakley

So in summary, Scott Brown is way ahead in this race, with the following numbers:

* 10:1 Advantage in YouTube video views
* 4:1 Advantage in Facebook fans
* 3:1 Advantage in Twitter mentions
* 10:1 Advantage in estimated web traffic

Is this Polling Data Valid? Can Social Media Metrics Predict Election Outcomes?

First of all, consider that conventional polling is flawed – they go through the phone book, so they exclude anyone without a land line. This social media polling data also excludes people – namely, those who don't use social media or the web. The question is, who is the more "likely voter", someone with a land line or someone who uses Facebook? I have no idea. I do know this: one day, more people will use social media than land lines - maybe not today, but probably not too far off either.

The social media polling data could simply mean that Scott Brown supporters are more excited about their candidate than Martha Coakley supporters – and even the conventional polling data has picked up on that notion. Clearly underdogs have the most passionate fan base (think crazy RedSox fans pre-2004).

Then there's the effect of non-Massachusetts residents (who can't vote in this election) affecting the social media engagement metrics – though as far as I can tell, the Senate race has attracted the attention of national special interest groups on both sides of the political spectrum. But are non-Massachusetts special interest groups and their followers 3 to 10 times more likely to be interested in Scott Brown than Martha Coakley?

It could be that the average Coakley supporter doesn't use the internet or social media venues as much as the average Scott Brown supporter. Again: is it plausible that her supporters use social media 3 to 10 times less?

It's also noteworthy to point out that in November 2008, Alexa had Barack Obama with an estimated five times larger Web presence over John McCain – and President Obama was famous for his success in connecting with the electorate over Twitter, YouTube and Facebook – and he won that election in a landslide.

In summary, while the data might not be complete, all available signs in the Social Media sphere currently point to a pretty strongly to a win by Scott Brown next week.

From Bottom Up! Florida’s Marco Rubio for Vice President in 2012?

(Paul Bedard, Washington Whispers).He hasn't even won the Florida Senate GOP primary against Gov. Charlie Crist yet, but there's speculation in Washington that former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio would make a perfect 2012 vice presidential candidate. "If he gets here, he automatically becomes the No. 1 candidate," says a former Bush adviser now associated with Sarah Palin.

Glenn Beck: "It's Mitt Romney's turn"

"I don't think she'll [Sarah Palin] get the Republican nomination. It's Mitt Romney's turn. That's the way it always works with Republicans. They go by turns."

Quinnpiac: Obama Approval at 45%; Only 2% are "very" satisfied with the way things are going

(RCP).A new Quinnipiac national survey shows the public evenly split on President Obama's job approval rating. The 45% job approval is his lowest to date in the Quinnipiac poll, and his 45% disapproval rating is his highest.

The public is equally split at 45/45 on the question of whether President Obama's first year in office was "mainly" a success or a failure. Among the crucial group of registered Independents, 40% view Obama's first year as a success while 47% view it as a failure.

Obama's handling of specific issues declined again this month, reaching new lows across the board:

Creating Jobs: 34% approve (-3 vs. last poll 12/09)/59% disapprove (+3)
Health Care: 35 (-3)/58 (+2)
Economy: 41 (-3), 54 (+3)
Afghanistan: 45 (-2)/45 (+2)
Foreign Policy: 45 (-1)/46 (+2)

Other notables from the Quinnipiac poll:

Democrats in Congress currently have a 32% job approval rating, down from a high of 45% last March.

Republicans in Congress have an equally anemic 32% job approval rating, but that actually represents their best showing to date in the Quinnipiac survey.

Only 2% are "very" satisfied with the way things are going in the country, with another 25% "somewhat" satisfied. On the other hand, 41% are "very" dissatisfied with the direction of the country and another 31% are "somewhat" dissatisfied.

Despite Obama's sinking approval ratings, 43% still rate him as "better than George W. Bush," while 30% say his is worse than Bush and 23% say he is "about the same" as Bush.

35% believe the country would be "better off" if John McCain had won the 2008 election, 37% believe we'd be "worse off" and 17% believes it didn't make a difference.

Will Red invade Blue? Scott Brown on FOX- This election matters the Country

PPP: Brown's chances increase due to his lead among moderates, and a chunk of Obama independents

(PPP)...-I wrote last week that if the turnout drop off in Massachusetts for Democrats was as bad as it was in Virginia and if Scott Brown and Martha Coakley got the same proportions of the McCain and Obama vote that Creigh Deeds and Bob McDonnell received that it would equate to a three point win for Coakley. But Brown is getting 15% of the Obama vote, better than the 12% McDonnell got in Virgina, and that's why he's in such a strong position right now. Who are these Obama voters going for Brown? Mostly white independents who seem unhappy with the Democratic Party across the board right now. Despite having voted for him they now give Obama just a 25% approval rating. Only 11% of them have a favorable opinion of Congressional Democrats. And they give Deval Patrick only 8% approval. The Democratic brand is not doing well with these folks across the board.

-Brown is winning moderate voters 49-42. Republicans just don't win with moderates these days. Even the day before they went down in flames Creigh Deeds and Jon Corzine were winning moderates in their races by margins of 56-42 and 47-37 respectively. It's going to be interesting to see if the attack ads going up against Brown now cut down his standing with voters in the middle.

CNN poll: 48% say Obama's first year was a failure, thumbs down on handling Economy and Health care

(CNN) - Americans are giving Barack Obama a split decision on his first year in office, according to a new national poll.

Forty-eight percent of people questioned in a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Tuesday say Obama's presidency has been a failure so far, with 47 percent saying Obama has been a success. The poll's January 12 release comes just 8 days before Obama marks one year in the White House.

The survey indicates that Obama's approval rating as president stands at 51 percent, down 3 points from last month, with 48 percent disapproving, up 4 points from December.

"On the plus side for Obama, he remains personally popular and he gets decent ratings on foreign policy and national security issues. That may explain why his overall approval rating is a little higher than the number who say Obama's first year has been a success," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "Unfortunately for Obama, domestic issues - led by the economy - are far more important to the public than foreign policy issues, and a majority disapprove of how he is handling every single economic and domestic issue tested."

According to the survey, the economy by far remains issue No. 1 with Americans, with 47 percent saying it is the most important issue facing the country today - up 7 points from last month. Health care, at 15 percent, is the second most important issue with the public, followed by the deficit at 11 percent. Terrorism is tied with the deficit, and up 7 points from last month, most likely do to widespread coverage of the attempted terrorist bombing of a U.S. airliner on Christmas Day.

The dominance of domestic issues in importance is most likely a contributing factor to the slight dip in Obama's overall approval rating.

"Only 44 percent approve of how Obama is handling the economy; just 4 in 10 give him a thumbs-up on health care and his approval rating on the federal deficit has plunged to 36 percent. Those are three of the four most important issues on the public's mind today," says Holland. "The president's ratings also suffer from the growing perception that he is too liberal - 46 percent feel that way today, up 10 points from March.

Will Brown end Dem's super power? It’s the people’s seat, and it’s up for grabs

(Bostonglobe).Coakley supports ObamaCare, opposes the war in Afghanistan, and favors higher taxes on the wealthy. Brown is against the health care legislation, backs the president’s surge in Afghanistan, and wants across-the-board tax cuts à la JFK. Coakley is an EMILY’s List prochoice hard-liner; Brown condemns partial-birth abortion and is backed by Massachusetts Citizens for Life. Coakley has no problem with civilian trials for Khalid Sheikh Mohammed. Brown thinks it reckless to treat enemy combatants like ordinary defendants.

But the most striking thing about the debate was not that the very liberal Democrat and the not-especially-conservative Republican disagreed on the issues. It is that they are both viable candidates in a race too competitive to call. In Massachusetts!

“I don’t know what’s going to happen on Jan. 19th,’’ Coakley said. She wasn’t being coy. Nobody knows what’s going to happen next week.

When Ted Kennedy died five months ago, who would have guessed that the contest to replace him would be anything but a slam-dunk for the Democrats? Yet there was no slam-dunk on that stage last night, and the race certainly doesn’t feel like a slam-dunk now.

“It’s not the ‘Kennedy Seat,’ ’’ Brown has been reminding Coakley lately. “It’s the people’s seat.’’

New CBS poll: It's the Economy STUPID! lowest approval for Obama and HCR

(CBS)President Obama's job approval rating has fallen to 46 percent, according to a new CBS News poll.

That rating is Mr. Obama's lowest yet in CBS News polling, and the poll marks the first time his approval rating has fallen below the 50 percent mark. Forty-one percent now say they disapprove of Mr. Obama's performance as president.

In last month's CBS News poll, 50 percent of Americans approved of how the president was handling his job, while thirty-nine percent disapproved.

More importantly, Mr. Obama's approval rating among independents has declined 10 points in recent months – and it now stands at just 42 percent.

Domestic issues – and not his response to terrorist threats - appear to be driving the president's approval rating downward.

Just 41 percent now approve of his handling of the economy, which Americans say is the nation's most pressing issue. Forty-seven percent disapprove. The president's marks on handling health care, with reforms still under debate in Congress, are even lower – just 36 percent approve, while 54 percent disapprove. Both of these approval ratings are the lowest of Mr. Obama's presidency.

The president receives slightly higher ratings for his handling of the war in Afghanistan and the threat of terrorism than on domestic issues. Forty-six percent approve of Mr. Obama's handling of Afghanistan, and 52 percent approve of how he is handling the threat of terrorism.

While some Republicans have criticized the president and Secretary of Homeland Security Janet Napolitano's responses to the attempted Christmas Day terror attack, most Americans don't share their opinion.

In the poll, 57 percent of Americans approve of the way the Obama administration has responded to the attempted attack, and 29 percent disapprove. Views are highly partisan – 75 percent of Democrats approve, while just 41 percent of Republicans and 55 percent of independents do.

Remember Jim Demint : Waterloo??

Right and Left bloggers rank Romney as the strongest candidate leading the GOP in '12

Via National Journal:

Right blogger's total: 66% , Left blogger's total: 25%

*"It's Romney's 'turn.' He was the second-place finisher last time (technically third, but only because Huckabee ran for months after the race was over). Huckabee and Palin cancel each other out for the populist vote." James Joyner, Outside The Beltway

*"The Republican lower tiers (e.g., Thune) might be much stronger in a general election than would be the better-known possibilities (e.g., Romney, Palin, Huckabee, Gingrich)." David Kopel, The Volokh Conspiracy

*"At this point, predicting the likely Republican nominee is a crapshoot. Romney (from 2008) and Barbour (from when he headed the RNC) are probably the two Republicans with the best networks in place right now." David Gerstman, Soccer Dad

*"The economic climate, as it stands today, is a perfect setup for Romney. But I've been ringing this bell for years. He's played it perfectly, staying out of sight, preparing for his re-emergence. He's scandal-free, and has already gone through the Mormon, policy-flip-flopping gauntlet with the base, which is likely to forgive the imperfect if the candidate looks like a winner, which Romney exudes. With his beautiful wife and family beside him, Mitt Romney is simply the perfect GOP commercial; all he needs is a national security veep." Taylor Marsh

*"Romney would be the strongest against Obama in the general election." Robert Farley, Lawyers, Guns And Money

*"Tea people notwithstanding, sometime between now and presidential primary season the GOP elite will decide they need an 'electable' Republican, and go with the one who came in second last time. Alternately, there's an outside chance that our infotainment media culture will augment Facebook Governor Palin's chances." Dean Barker, Blue Hampshire

*"So much will depend on the mood of the electorate in 2012, and it's too soon to predict what that will be. I chose Mitt Romney on the guess that people will be mostly concerned with the economy." Barbara O'Brien, The Mahablog

McCain on CNN: Obama's tough terror talk and policy don't match

(Washingtontimes).Sen. John McCain said Sunday that President Obama's tougher talk about fighting terrorism following the attempted Christmas airliner bombing does not match his decision to try the bomber in civilian court.

"That person should be tried as an enemy combatant; he's a terrorist," Mr. McCain, Arizona Republican, said. "And if we are at war, then we certainly should not be trying that individual in a court other than a military trial."

He said Mr. Obama should not allow terror suspect Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, a Nigerian, to get "lawyered up" for his day in court instead of handing him to intelligence officials to extract vital information.

"To have a person be able to get lawyered up when we need that information very badly, I think betrays or contradicts the president's view that we are at war," Mr. McCain said on CNN's "State of the Union."

Mr. Obama has said that as commander in chief he ultimately bears responsibility for the failures and that no one will be fired over the incident.

"People should be held responsible for what happened," Mr. McCain said. "We can't go back to the old Washington kind of routine -- we are all responsible, so therefore nobody is responsible. Somebody has got to be held responsible."

Still, Mr. McCain, who as the 2008 Republican presidential nominee blasted Mr. Obama's weak stance against terrorism, said he appreciated the president's comments that "we are at war" with terrorists.

"They are a departure from his language before," Mr. McCain said.

Friends we believe in! What do Clinton , Biden and Reid think on the 'Coffeemaker in chief'?

Via Ben Smith-Politico, on Clinton and Reid's racist remarks from the campaign trail,in the book Game Change, John Heliemann and Mark Halperin reports:

*CLINTON:As Hillary bungled Caroline, Bill’s handling of Ted was even worse. The day after Iowa, he phoned Kennedy and pressed for an endorsement, making the case for his wife. But Bill then went on, belittling Obama in a manner that deeply offended Kennedy. Recounting the conversation later to a friend, Teddy fumed that Clinton had said, "A few years ago, this guy would have been getting us coffee".

*REID:–Reid said Obama could fare well nationally as an African-American candidate because he was “light-skinned” and didn’t speak with a “Negro dialect unless he wanted to have one.” Saturday, the majority leader said he had used “poor choice of words” and called Obama to apologize; the White House issued a statement indicating that the president had forgiven Reid.

*BIDEN AND OBAMA CLASH: The relationship between Barack Obama and Joe Biden grew so strained during the 2008 campaign, according to a new book, that the two rarely spoke and aides not only kept Biden off internal conference calls but refused to even tell him they existed.

Instead, a separate campaign call was regularly scheduled between the then-Delaware senator and two of Obama’s top campaign aides – “so that they could keep a tight rein on him,”

When Biden, at an October fund-raiser in Seattle, famously predicted that Obama would be tested with an international crisis, the then-Illinois senator had had enough.

"How many times is Biden gonna say something stupid?" he demanded of his advisers on a conference call, a moment at which most people on the call said the candidate was as angry as they had ever heard him.

Democratic Support andvantage slips to 5%, if included Independents leaning GOP

(Gallup).The year 2009 marked the end of a three-year run of majority Democratic support among U.S. adults. Last year, an average of 49.0% of Americans identified as Democrats or said they leaned Democratic, the party's first yearly average below 50% since 2005. Still, Democrats maintained an average eight-point advantage in support over Republicans last year, as 40.7% of Americans identified as Republicans or leaned Republican.

The 2009 results are based on aggregated data from all Gallup and USA Today/Gallup polls conducted last year, encompassing interviews with more than 21,000 Americans. In each poll, Gallup asks Americans whether they consider themselves Republicans, Democrats, or independents. Independents are subsequently asked if they lean to the Republican or Democratic Party.

"The increase in overall GOP support is owing to an increase in the percentage of Republican-leaning independents, from 11% in the first quarter to 15% in the third and fourth quarters."

The 2009 yearly averages do not tell the whole story of changes in party support last year, as they to some degree obscure the sharp decline in the Democrats' advantage over the course of the year. In the first quarter of 2009, coincident with the beginning of the Obama administration, Democrats enjoyed one of the largest advantages for either party since 1991, 13 percentage points (51.7% of Americans identified as Democrats or leaned Democratic, versus 38.7% who identified as or leaned Republican). In each subsequent quarter, the percentage of Democratic supporters declined, and by the fourth quarter, the Democratic advantage had shrunk to 5 points (47.2% to 42.2%).

The five-point party gap in the fourth quarter of 2009 represents the smallest Democratic advantage since the second quarter of 2005. Thus, the gains the Democratic Party made in public support during the last several years of the George W. Bush administration have disappeared.

Though total Republican support did increase last year, this came mostly from what can be considered "soft support." The increase in overall GOP support is owing to an increase in the percentage of Republican-leaning independents, from 11% in the first quarter to 15% in the third and fourth quarters. The percentage of Americans with a stronger attachment to the GOP -- those who initially identify themselves as Republicans -- was stable and, if anything, showed a slight decline over the course of the year. Also, there was a two-point drop in the percentage of Democratic identifiers and a two-point drop in the percentage of Democratic-leaning independents.