Is He running for President or is He President? Obama To Health Care Opponents "What's Your Solution?"

If he would only be so aggressive and forceful on creating new jobs, fixing the economy and winning the war in Afghanistan, American people would have at least benefited from it.

UPDATED:(Politico). Gingrich:“Yesterday’s speech was fine if you’re a candidate, it was a terrible speech if you’re president,” he said. “For the president to suggest that his critics do not have alternative solutions is simply factually false.”

Frankly He Can! Sen. Al Franken draws amazingly accurate map of the United States

Former Gov. George Pataki: Obama is Jeopardizing U.S. Security

(Newsmax).Eight years after the worst-ever terrorist attack on American soil, the man who was Governor of New York at the time, George Pataki fears that President Obama has weakened U.S. security.

In an exclusive interview with Newsmax.TV, Pataki says: “There is no question in my mind he is jeopardizing our security. You cannot turn terrorists loose, turn them back to where they came from and not expect them to engage in that activity again. We’ve already seen the example of a number of Guantanamo detainees who were released and returned to the battlefield, fighting our troops, fighting others who are trying to uphold the rule of law and defend freedom. So that clearly places us in jeopardy”

The three-term Republican governor also warns the investigation and possible prosecution of CIA terrorist interrogators by Obama’s attorney general will undermine America’s national security.

“When CIA officials, CIA agents and others who play a critical role in trying to gather the intelligence we need to prevent further attacks have to look over the shoulder about investigations and possible criminal charges, it certainly hampers our ability to get the necessary intelligence to protect ourselves,” he says.

Pataki suggests Obama is repeating the mistakes of the previous Democratic administration.

“Using the FBI and by derivation our criminal justice court system to look into this, this is exactly what happened in 1993,” he says.

“We had the towers bombed by an Islamic terrorist and rather than seeing it as an act of war by those who would attack us any chance they would get, we treated it as a criminal case, we had a trial, the trial went forward, the sheik was convicted, but it sent all the wrong messages to those who would attack us again.”

“The fact that the FBI and the CIA couldn’t share information I think in retrospect clearly was one of the major problems because the terrorists, the hijackers were here in the U.S. and the FBI had some information, the CIA had different information, but they could not coordinate. And that was a self-imposed Clinton administration restriction that had tragic consequences. I fear that too many of the actions of this Obama administration have the potential, let’s hope it never happens, but have the potential to open us up to further attacks.”

By contrast, he notes that since the 9/11 attacks the Bush administration prevented any more terror attacks on the U.S. homeland.

“So take a look at the past eight years,” Pataki says, “For all the uncertainty in the world, we were safe, we were not attacked again. I fear that the Obama administration’s policies are jeopardizing our security going forward.”

Trippi: GOP trying to turn Obama into another Jimmy Carter

(CNN) – A prominent Democratic strategist said Sunday that Republicans are trying to turn President Barack Obama’s administration into another “failed presidency” like that of former Democratic president Jimmy Carter.

“They’re going to keep gunning,” Democratic strategist Joe Trippi said Sunday on CNN’s State of the Union, referring to conservatives’ recent — and ultimately successful efforts — to target Obama’s green jobs adviser Van Jones over controversial comments he made before becoming a part of Obama’s White House team.

“This administration has the potential to be FDR or Jimmy Carter and I think the Republicans are going to do everything they can to make him Jimmy Carter, to create a failed presidency. That’s, unfortunately, what many of them want.”

Trippi, who served as the campaign manager for Gov. Howard Dean’s bid for the White House, also said he believed that Obama was genuinely interested in bipartisanship but that Republicans are not likely to respond to Obama’s efforts to reach across the aisle.

Obama has to “realize he’s sticking his hand out but many Republicans are just not ready to embrace it,” Trippi told CNN Chief National Correspondent John King.

Republican strategist Ed Rollins disagreed with Trippi’s assessment of Obama’s relationship with the GOP.

“Presidents don’t come down by what the opposition party [does] and that’s what we are, we’re an opposition party,” Rollins said on State of the Union, “There are many things that Obama is offering that we don’t believe in, so why should we compromise on our principles? [Democrats] have got all the votes, you can do whatever you want.”

Americans like Bibi, Love Israel

(Bibireport).A new opinion poll conducted by Public Opinion Strategies and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for The Israel Project has shown a sharp rise in support for Israel in the United States. The poll also showed an extraordinary level of support for Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and for many key policies endorsed by his party, Likud.

Among the most striking findings of the survey are the following:

** 95 percent of respondents say that the Palestinians must recognise Israel as a specifically Jewish state, something that the Palestinian leadership has adamantly refused to do.

** 63 percent say the United States should take Israel’s side in the conflict — up 19 percentage points from a similar poll in June — compared to just 8 percent for the Palestinians.

** Asked whether their feelings towards various political leaders were warm or cold — where scores above 50 percent indicate warmth and scores below it indicate coolness — Netanyahu got a score of 56 percent, just 3 percentage points below Barack Obama.

** 72 percent believe that Netanyahu is right to call a halt to settlement while allowing for natural growth.

** 90 percent agree with President Obama that the Palestinian leadership must do more to stop anti-Israeli incitement across Palestinian culture

Romney to Obama:Be careful not to cross the line to discuss political or policy matters; Pawlenty: its disruptive and uninvited

(CNN) — Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty is adding his voice to the growing conservative chorus criticizing President Obama's scheduled address to public school children next week.

"At a minimum it's disruptive, number two, it's uninvited and number three, if people would like to hear his message they can, on a voluntary basis, go to YouTube or some other source and get it. I don't think he needs to force it upon the nation's school children," he told reporters at the Minnesota State fair.

The governor also objected to the Department of Education's initial encouragement of school children to write the president with their thoughts on what they can do to help him. Amid criticism, the proposal was dropped.

"There are going to be questions about — well, what are they are going to do with those names and is that for the purpose of a mailing list?" Pawlenty said.

Meanwhile, Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, thought to be another potential White House hopeful, issues a more measured statement to Obama's planned address.

"If the president wants to encourage students to stay in school and study, that's appropriate," he said. "However, he should be careful not to cross the line to discuss political issues or policy matters."

CNN Poll: Republicans make gains, and close the gap

(CNN) — Despite the drop in President Barack Obama's approval ratings, Republican policies are still not as popular as Democratic policies, according to a new national poll.

A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Friday morning indicates that the GOP has gained some ground in polls in recent months, but Democrats still hold the advantage on key issues like the economy and health care.

Fifty-two percent of people questioned say the president's policies will move the country in the right direction. An equal percentage feel the same way about the polices of the Democrats in Congress. What do Americans think of Republican policies? Forty-three percent say the GOP's policies will move the country in the right direction. Nearly half of those polled said congressional Republicans would move the country in the wrong direction.

But the percentage of people who think Obama will move the country in the right direction has dropped 11 points since May, while congressional Democrats have seen a 5 point dip. Congressional Republicans have seen a 4 point rise over the same period.

Polls in recent weeks have shown Obama's approval rating in the mid-to-low 50s — a significant drop from early summer, when most polls had his rating at 60 percent or higher.

"Barack Obama's drop in the polls has not made the Republican Party more popular than the Democrats," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. Still, he adds, "the GOP may be in a more competitive position — a comparison with poll results from May suggests that the gap between the parties has been closing."

Olbermann: Obama could face primary challenge in 2012 if Public Option is dropped

With Obama out of sight, 'Acting' President I Biden finds success in Stimulus

(washingtontimes).There's no "I" in "team," but there is definitely one in "Biden."

With President Obama off on vacation, his second in two weeks, unofficial Acting President Joe Biden has stepped into the vacuum, claiming credit Thursday for the successes of the administration's $787 billion stimulus package and fielding questions on health care reform -- something his boss hasn't done in nearly two weeks.

The vice president, borrowing Mr. Obama's teleprompter for a speech before a friendly audience at the Brookings Institution, said "I" more than a dozen times as he pointed repeatedly to progress on the economy and to his lofty role in the process.

"Every week -- with notable exceptions -- I hold a Cabinet meeting. And most of the Cabinet secretaries attend," he told the audience in Washington.

"I made it clear that our focus had to be, in the first 100 days, accountability, transparency and responsiveness. I wanted each of those Cabinet secretaries to set up systems where they would have a high degree of confidence that as they implemented what they were in charge of, it would be done effectively and efficiently."

Mr. Biden said he had also talked to "every single governor except one, who's now a former governor." The crowd laughed, getting the reference to former Alaska Republican Gov. Sarah Palin. "By the way, it wasn't by design. She was going to be on a couple of times and couldn't for other reasons," he said defensively.

In a presidential-like declaration, Mr. Biden said the buck stops with him. "I take responsibility for mistakes that were made," he said at one point.

Unemployment Rises to 9.7% - where are the Jobs?

(Bloomberg) -- The pace of U.S. job losses slowed in August as signs emerged that the recession is ending, while the unemployment rate reached a 26-year high, underscoring threats to consumer spending gains in the recovery.

Employers cut 216,000 from payrolls, fewer than forecast, after a 276,000 drop in July that was larger than previously reported, Labor Department data showed today in Washington. The jobless rate jumped to 9.7 percent from 9.4 percent.

“What we’re learning is that the pace of job declines is subsiding,” David Rosenberg, chief economist at Gluskin Sheff & Associates Inc. in Toronto, said in an interview with Bloomberg Radio. “The economy is no longer detonating, but we are still losing jobs, and the unemployment rate is going up. It’s going to be a very tough environment for the consumer.”

Rising joblessness underscores Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s judgment that it’s “too early” to start exiting from the unprecedented stimulus measures helping stabilize the economy. AMR Corp. and Whirlpool Corp. are among the companies continuing to cut staff to lower costs and revive profits in the aftermath of the deepest recession since the 1930s.

The latest numbers brought total jobs lost since the recession began in December 2007 to 6.9 million, the biggest decline in any post-World War II economic slump.

Payrolls were forecast to drop 230,000 after a 247,000 decline initially reported for July, according to the median of 79 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Estimates ranged from decreases of 365,000 to 100,000. Job losses peaked at 741,000 in January, the most since 1949.

Obama and the Perfect Political Storm - Change voters do not believe in

(KARL ROVE-WSJ).August was the worst month of Barack Obama's presidency. And he seems to know it—he is now planning to deliver a speech to a joint session of Congress 232 days into his administration in a desperate attempt to save his biggest domestic priority, overhauling health care.

He has already had the budget-busting $787 billion stimulus package, a budget that doubles the national debt in five years, an earmark-laden appropriations bill that boosted domestic spending nearly 8%, and a cap-and-trade energy tax that limped through the House with dozens of Democratic defections (and which has stalled in the Senate). These achievements are unpopular, so they are boomeranging on him.

Mr. Obama's problems are legion. To start with, the president is focusing on health care when the economy and jobs are nearly everyone's top issue. Voters increasingly believe Mr. Obama took his eye off the ball.

In addition, Mr. Obama is trying to overhaul health care without being able to tap into widespread public unhappiness. Nearly nine out of 10 Americans say they have coverage—and large majorities of them are happy with it. Of the 46 million uninsured, 9.7 million are not U.S. citizens; 17.6 million have annual incomes of more than $50,000; and 14 million already qualify for Medicaid or other programs. That leaves less than five million people truly uncovered out of a population of 307 million. Americans don't believe this problem—serious but correctable—justifies the radical shift Mr. Obama offers.

Moreover, he's tried to sell it with promises Americans aren't buying. He says ObamaCare will save money, but American believe it comes with a huge price tag because the Congressional Budget Office has said it will.

Workers are also rightly concerned they won't be able to keep their current coverage. Many businesses will drop their health plans and instead pay a fine equal to 8% of their payroll costs, which is less than what they pay for employee coverage...

Sen. Jim DeMint (R., S.C.) was inartful but basically correct when he said if Mr. Obama loses on health care, "it will be his Waterloo." It would destroy confidence in the ability of Democrats to govern. Mr. Obama knows this, which is why he will stop at nothing to get a bill, any bill, on which the label "health-care reform" can be stuck.

Given the Democratic congressional margins, Mr. Obama has the votes to do it, but at huge costs to him and his party. Legislation that looks anything like the bill moving through the House will contain deeply unpopular provisions—including massive deficit spending, tax hikes and Medicare cuts—and create enormous ill will on Capitol Hill. This will be especially true if Democrats rely on parliamentary tricks to pass a bill in the Senate with 51 votes. The public's reaction in August showed that the president is creating the conditions for a revolt against his party in the 2010 elections.

On the other hand, if Mr. Obama jettisons the public option, he may spark a revolt within his party. The Democratic base is already grumbling and could block a bill if it doesn't include a public option.

Presidents always encounter rough patches. What is unusual is how soon Mr. Obama has hit his. He has used up almost all his goodwill in less than nine months, with the hardest work still ahead. At the year's start, Democrats were cocky. At summer's end, concern is giving way to despair. A perfect political storm is amassing, and heading straight for Democrats.

Back to Rhetoric - Obama to address Congress next Wed.

President Barack Obama will address a joint session of Congress on health care reform in prime time on Wednesday, Sept. 9, a senior official tells POLITICO.

Obama will receive House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid at the White House the day before for a previously scheduled sit-down.

The last time a president addressed a joint session of Congress that wasn’t a State of the Union, or the traditional first address by a new president, was Sept. 20, 2001, when President George W. Bush spoke on the war on terrorism following the 9/11 attacks.

After plans for the session had been reported, Reid and Pelosi released a letter of invitation to the president: "Our nation is closer than ever to achieving health insurance reform that will lower costs, retain choice, improve quality and expand coverage. We are committed to reaching this goal. We would like to invite you to address a Joint Session of the Congress on Wednesday, September 9 on health insurance reform. Thank you for considering this invitation to speak to the Congress and the nation."

Obama plans to give lawmakers a more specific prescription
for health care legislation than he has in the past, aides said.

PPP: GOP leads generic Ballot 45-41; Voters Unhappy with both Parties favor the GOP 50-14

(PPP)....When voters are mad at Washington it tends to be the party in power that pays the price and our first look at the generic Congressional ballot for this election cycle reflects that. 45% of voters say they would choose a Republican if there was an election being held today, while 41% say they would vote Democratic.

That result is largely a function of independents saying they would vote Republican by a margin of 40-31. Democrats and Republicans are mostly committed to their parties, as you would expect.

Among voters who are unhappy with both Congressional Democrats and Republicans, the GOP leads on the generic ballot 50-14, a reflection of the fact that even if people don't like you they might turn to you as the alternative when you're the party out of power.

Pew:Congressional Favorability at 24-Year Low; Generic ballot Evenly Divided 45-44; Ind. favor GOP

(Pewreaserch).Americans are extremely displeased with Congress, and there are already some signs that this could take a toll on the Democrats in the 2010 midterm elections. Currently, 37% express a favorable opinion of Congress, while 52% hold an unfavorable view. Positive opinions of Congress have declined by 13 points since April and are now at one of their lowest points in more than two decades of Pew Research Center surveys.

At the same time, intentions to vote Democratic in the next midterm election are markedly lower than they have been over the past four years. Voters are about evenly divided when asked how they would vote if the election for Congress were being held today: 45% say they would vote for a Democratic candidate in their district, or lean Democratic, while 44% say they would vote for a Republican or lean Republican. At about this point four years ago, Democrats led in the generic congressional ballot by 52% to 40% and went on to win a majority of the popular vote and regain control of Congress the following November.

The new survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Aug. 20-27 in English and Spanish among 2,003 adults reached on landlines and cell phones, finds that the Democrats’ dimmer electoral prospects are more a matter of disillusionment with the party that controls Congress than a revival of the image of the Republican Party. Favorable ratings of the GOP remain quite low (40%), even as opinion of Democrats has soured; just 48% say they have a favorable opinion of the Democratic Party, down 11 points since April.


Most of the shift in voting intentions since the 2006 election cycle has occurred among political independents. Independent voters backed Democrats by a wide margin in the previous midterm (11 points on the eve of the election), but currently say they support the GOP candidate in their district by 43% to 38%.

Rep. Ryan Talks About Health Care Reform

Democratic Advantage in Party Affiliation Shrinks - Gap now 5 points 45-40

(Gallup).In August, an average of 45% of Americans identified as Democrats or leaned to the Democratic Party, while 40% identified as Republicans or leaned to the Republican Party. This 5-point advantage represents a decided narrowing of the gap between the parties from the 17-point Democratic advantage in January.

The total of 45% current Democratic support derives from 34% of Americans who identify as Democrats and 11% who identify as independents but say they lean to the Democratic Party. The Republican Party's 40% support total includes 28% Republican identifiers and 12% Republican-leaning independents.

The shrinking Democratic-Republican gap since January is due to a decline in Democratic identification (from 38% to 34%) and a shift in the leanings of independents, from largely Democratic to an essentially equal distribution. Importantly, there has been essentially no increase in Republican identification over this time.

The narrowing of the gap may be merely a reflection of the difficulties a party has in governing. Democrats began to build up a party-identification advantage in 2005 as George W. Bush's job approval rating sank, which ultimately led to the Democrats' retaking party control of Congress in the 2006 elections and of the presidency in the 2008 election.

Over the course of the year, President Barack Obama's approval rating has declined, particularly during the last two months. While Obama and the Democrats may be accurate in saying they inherited a lot of the problems with which they are currently dealing, Americans show concern about rising federal spending and exploding budget deficits as their political leaders attempt to fix the problems. The debate over healthcare reform is also putting party ideological differences into sharper focus, and Democratic Party leaders have been put on the defensive about some of the key elements for healthcare reform they favor, such as a public-option health insurance plan.

Mitt Romney Diving into the Campaign trail leading to Pennsylvania Ave.

(Politico).While he remains publicly coy about the possibility of another White House bid, Mitt Romney’s calendar tells a very different story.

From returning to a key early primary state to delivering an address before a social conservative conference and reuniting with members of his campaign-in-waiting, Romney is scheduled to spend a good deal of his September in a fashion befitting a man very much interested in running for president.

Romney has been careful to avoid being overexposed this year, instead picking his spots to weigh in with an op-ed or talk show appearance when the national debate turns to health care, the auto industry or some other issue on which he’s well-versed.

But despite the relatively low media exposure, Romney has not ignored the importance of building and keeping his political contacts, especially in Washington.

To this end, the former Massachusetts governor will spend much of the middle of this month in and around the capital for a series of events aimed at retaining or building support with a number of valuable constituencies in a Republican primary.

On Saturday, Sept. 19, Romney will speak at the Values Voters Summit, an annual conference in the capital put on by the Family Research Council that frequently draws GOP presidential hopefuls.

First, on Thursday night, Romney is holding a $1,000-per-person fundraiser at a trendy Washington restaurant. Co-hosts include a number of Romney stalwarts such as former campaign counsel Ben Ginsberg and high-powered lobbyists Ron Kaufman, Drew Maloney, Al Cardenas and Jack Gerard.

On Friday, Romney heads across the Potomac to Alexandria for a breakfast fundraiser benefitting the re-election campaign of Virginia Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling, an early supporter and state chair of the former governor’s 2008 bid.

The day after the Values Voters event, Romney is keynoting a $500-per-person afternoon reception at the Great Falls, Va., home of former solicitor general Ted Olson for Barbara Comstock, a Romney adviser now running for state delegate.

On that Monday, Romney will deliver a foreign policy address at a Washington conference put on by the hawkish Foreign Policy Initiative.At night, he will raise money for Bob McDonnell, the GOP’s gubernatorial candidate in Virginia, at an evening reception in Washington.

But Romney’s not just tending to old relationships and building new ones inside the Beltway.

On Sept. 22, he’ll head to Atlanta – a major Republican fundraising hub – to raise money for Georgia’s House Republican caucus.

And that weekend, the son of a former Michigan governor will return to his childhood state to keynote the annual Mackinac Republican Leadership Conference, a heavily attended activist event on a picturesque island near the Upper Peninsula. In 2007, Romney used the same conference to offer a critical assessment of his own party and won the straw poll. He later carried the state during the GOP primary.

Asked about the flurry of political activity by Romney – who is also writing a future-oriented book entitled “No Apology: The Case for American Greatness” – spokesman Eric Fehrnstrom suggested the fast-pace wouldn’t be just limited to September.

“Summer's over,” Fehrnstrom said. “With 2010 right around the corner, there's a lot of work to do, which means more travel, more fundraising and more campaigning.”

Under fire, President Obama shifts strategy - No public Option

(POLITICO 44).Aides to President Barack Obama are putting the final touches on a new strategy to help Democrats recover from a brutal August recess by specifying what Obama wants to see in a compromise health care deal and directly confronting other trouble spots, West Wing officials tell POLITICO.

Obama is considering detailing his health-care demands in a major speech as soon as next week, when Congress returns from the August recess. And although House leaders have said their members will demand the inclusion of a public insurance option, Obama has no plans to insist on it himself, the officials said.

“We’re entering a new season,” senior adviser David Axelrod said in a telephone interview. “It’s time to synthesize and harmonize these strands and get this done. We’re confident that we can do that. But obviously it is a different phase. We’re going to approach it in a different way. The president is going to be very active.”

Top officials privately concede the past six weeks have taken their toll on Obama's popularity. But the officials also see the new diminished expectations as an opportunity to prove their critics wrong by signing a health care law, showing progress in Afghanistan, and using this month's anniversary of the fall of Lehman Brothers to push for a crackdown on Wall Street.

On health care, Obama’s willingness to forgo the public option is sure to anger his party’s liberal base. But some administration officials welcome a showdown with liberal lawmakers if they argue they would rather have no health care law than an incremental one. The confrontation would allow Obama to show he is willing to stare down his own party to get things done.

CNN Poll: 53% Independents disapprove of Obama

(CNN) — A majority of independent voters disapprove of how Barack Obama's handling his job as president, according to a new national poll.

Fifty-three percent of independents questioned in a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Tuesday say they disapprove of how Obama's handling his duties in the White House, with 43 percent in approval. That result marks the first time in a CNN poll that a majority of independents give the president's performance a thumbs-down.

Obama's overall approval rating of 53 percent is down 3 points from a month ago, and down 8 points from June. Forty-five percent of those questioned disapprove, up 5 points from a month ago and up 8 points from June.

CNN Polling Director Keating Holland:

"Obama won a majority of the vote among independents last year, and that helped put him in the White House,Losing their support makes it more difficult for Obama to govern from the center."

A majority now disapprove of how he has handled health care, taxes, the economy and the budget deficit.

"Among all Americans, his rating on health care has dropped 13 points since March. Compare that to his 16 point drop on the deficit and 17 point dip on taxes and it looks like there is growing discontent with Obama's overall domestic agenda — not just his health care policy."

Republicans Widen a 7 point Lead Over Democrats on Generic Ballot

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 43% would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate while 36% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent.

That represents the lowest level of support for Democrats in recent years, while Republicans have tied their highest level of support for the third straight week. The previous low for Democrats over the past year was 37%.

This summer, support for Republican candidates ranged from 41% to 43%, support for Democrats ranged from 37% to 39%. Looking back one year ago, support was strikingly different for the parties. Throughout the summer of 2008, support for Democratic congressional candidates ranged from 45% to 48%. Republican support ranged from 34% to 37%.

However, Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, notes that it’s too early for Republicans to be celebrating:

“These numbers certainly represent weakness for the Democrats, but it’s important to remember that the mid-term elections are 14 months away. That’s plenty of time for the President’s party to do some damage control and pick up the pieces from what has been a tough month of August.”

“Democrats in 2010 will have one advantage they couldn’t count on in 1994. During the Clinton years, nobody could remember a time when the GOP controlled Congress.”

WSJ James Taranto: Dick Cheney For President In 2012

Voters Misread Obama - Obama ran as a Moderate Republican

(Steve Chapman-RCP).Barack Obama came into office championing change, and he apparently assumed that if Americans voted for him, it was because they wanted the future to be different from what went before. Actually, what they wanted was a future much like the not-so-distant past -- before the financial crisis, before the recession, before the Iraq war, before the most unpopular president since the invention of polling.

If voters had wanted a sharp ideological shift, they could have voted for Democratic candidates more identified with Great Society-style government -- Hillary Clinton, John Edwards or even Dennis Kucinich. Obama got the early endorsement of Ted Kennedy, but like Bill Clinton before him, he won because he distanced himself from Kennedy-style liberalism. His promise of change was eloquent enough to motivate the left wing of his party but vague enough to make him acceptable to people in the middle.

Among independents, Obama beat John McCain by an 8-point margin. The reason John Kerry lost and Obama won, as Democratic pollster Douglas Schoen has noted, was not liberal voters: They voted for both in the same proportion. The difference was that while Kerry had a 9-point edge over his Republican opponent among moderates, Obama carried them by 21 points. Obama also did significantly better among conservatives than Kerry.

After the election, then-chairman of the Republican National Committee Mike Duncan noted that the Democratic nominee supported offshore oil drilling, merit pay for teachers, a tax cut for 95 percent of Americans, more troops in Afghanistan and an end to wasteful federal earmarks.

Put simply," he said, "Barack Obama just ran the most successful moderate Republican presidential campaign since Dwight Eisenhower."

In the weeks after the election, amid talk of a second Great Depression, Obama was often compared to Franklin D. Roosevelt. But by the time FDR took office, the economy had been in free fall for more than three years, creating mass desperation.

But the 44th president apparently thought he had a mandate for the expansion of federal power and responsibility, which he has used on everything from bailing out automakers to showering the economy with stimulus dollars to trying to overhaul health insurance. He and his allies have therefore been surprised to face a surge of angry opposition, including some based on wild flights of paranoia.

What they forgot is that the surest way to mobilize American political opposition, irrational as well as rational, is to enlarge the government's role in our lives. Liberals and conservatives disagree on when to distrust the government, but they share the same basic suspicion.

As 2012 seems competitive - Guiliani may run for President

New York State is abuzz with speculation that former New York City Mayor and presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani will run for governor there in 2010.

But the "general consensus" among Republicans around the state is that Rudy won't enter the race, New York magazine reports. The chief reason: He has his eye on the White House in 2012.

The magazine observes: "Giuliani can run for governor or run for president in 2012, but he probably can't do both...

"President Obama appears to be vulnerable, and the Republican field in 2012 is open."

A political insider told New York: "Do you go to Albany in a thankless job, or do you take another shot nationally? He's aware that the Obama administration is falling apart much more quickly than anybody imagined."

Obama reaches risky Re-election point - Rasmussen Daily approval at 45%

As i posted yesterday from Nate Silver:

Something like 45 percent, which is where Gerald Ford was when he lost to Jimmy Carter by two points in 1976, might be the more relevant number....A quick-and-dirty probit analysis, based on a dataset and placing slightly more weight on recent elections, puts the breakeven number at 44 percent.....

Well! Yesterday's Zogby poll that puts Obama's approval at 42% and today's Rasmussen Daily approval rating shows that Obama has Reached that point of risking his Re-election bid, although the numbers may bounce up and down as the debate heats up in Washington, The current numbers show one thing that Obama's support is not solid, and the Balloon could bust any day.


Rasmussehreports:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows that 30% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Forty-one percent (41%) Strongly Disapprove .

Most voters now expect that the situation in Afghanistan will get worse over the next six months. That's up fourteen points over the past month. .

Overall, 45% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the President's performance. That's down a point from yesterday and the lowest level of total approval yet measured for Obama. Fifty-three percent (53%) now. disapprove.

Experts see double-digit Dem losses

(Politico).After an August recess marked by raucous town halls, troubling polling data and widespread anecdotal evidence of a volatile electorate, the small universe of political analysts who closely follow House races is predicting moderate to heavy Democratic losses in 2010.

Some of the most prominent and respected handicappers can now envision an election in which Democrats suffer double-digit losses in the House — not enough to provide the 40 seats necessary to return the GOP to power but enough to put them within striking distance. Top political analyst Charlie Cook, in a special August 20 update to subscribers, wrote that “the situation this summer has slipped completely out of control for President Obama and congressional Democrats.” "Many veteran congressional election watchers, including Democratic ones, report an eerie sense of déjà vu, with a consensus forming that the chances of Democratic losses going higher than 20 seats is just as good as the chances of Democratic losses going lower than 20 seats,” he wrote.

At the mid-August Netroots Nation convention, Nate Silver, a Democratic analyst whose uncannily accurate, stat-driven predictions have made his website FiveThirtyEight.com a must read among political junkies, predicted that Republicans will win between 20 and 50 seats next year. He further alarmed an audience of progressive activists by arguing that the GOP has between a 25 and 33 percent chance of winning back control of the House. “A lot of Democratic freshmen and sophomores will be running in a much tougher environment than in 2006 and 2008 and some will adapt to it, but a lot of others will inevitably freak out and end up losing,” Silver told POLITICO. “Complacency is another factor: We have volunteers who worked really hard in 2006 and in 2008 for Obama but it’s less compelling [for them] to preserve the majority.” Historic trends point to Republican House gains in the midterm election, particularly after facing two brutal election cycles where the party lost seats in every region and even in some of the most conservative states in the nation. Over the last five decades, the party out of power has picked up seats in 10 of the 12 midterm elections. Turnout levels may also work in the GOP’s favor: House Democrats who narrowly won election in 2008 on the strength of high turnout among African-Americans and young voters probably won’t be able to count on that same level of enthusiasm next year in a nonpresidential election.