(Gallup).In August, an average of 45% of Americans identified as Democrats or leaned to the Democratic Party, while 40% identified as Republicans or leaned to the Republican Party. This 5-point advantage represents a decided narrowing of the gap between the parties from the 17-point Democratic advantage in January.
The total of 45% current Democratic support derives from 34% of Americans who identify as Democrats and 11% who identify as independents but say they lean to the Democratic Party. The Republican Party's 40% support total includes 28% Republican identifiers and 12% Republican-leaning independents.
The shrinking Democratic-Republican gap since January is due to a decline in Democratic identification (from 38% to 34%) and a shift in the leanings of independents, from largely Democratic to an essentially equal distribution. Importantly, there has been essentially no increase in Republican identification over this time.
The narrowing of the gap may be merely a reflection of the difficulties a party has in governing. Democrats began to build up a party-identification advantage in 2005 as George W. Bush's job approval rating sank, which ultimately led to the Democrats' retaking party control of Congress in the 2006 elections and of the presidency in the 2008 election.
Over the course of the year, President Barack Obama's approval rating has declined, particularly during the last two months. While Obama and the Democrats may be accurate in saying they inherited a lot of the problems with which they are currently dealing, Americans show concern about rising federal spending and exploding budget deficits as their political leaders attempt to fix the problems. The debate over healthcare reform is also putting party ideological differences into sharper focus, and Democratic Party leaders have been put on the defensive about some of the key elements for healthcare reform they favor, such as a public-option health insurance plan.
The total of 45% current Democratic support derives from 34% of Americans who identify as Democrats and 11% who identify as independents but say they lean to the Democratic Party. The Republican Party's 40% support total includes 28% Republican identifiers and 12% Republican-leaning independents.
The shrinking Democratic-Republican gap since January is due to a decline in Democratic identification (from 38% to 34%) and a shift in the leanings of independents, from largely Democratic to an essentially equal distribution. Importantly, there has been essentially no increase in Republican identification over this time.
The narrowing of the gap may be merely a reflection of the difficulties a party has in governing. Democrats began to build up a party-identification advantage in 2005 as George W. Bush's job approval rating sank, which ultimately led to the Democrats' retaking party control of Congress in the 2006 elections and of the presidency in the 2008 election.
Over the course of the year, President Barack Obama's approval rating has declined, particularly during the last two months. While Obama and the Democrats may be accurate in saying they inherited a lot of the problems with which they are currently dealing, Americans show concern about rising federal spending and exploding budget deficits as their political leaders attempt to fix the problems. The debate over healthcare reform is also putting party ideological differences into sharper focus, and Democratic Party leaders have been put on the defensive about some of the key elements for healthcare reform they favor, such as a public-option health insurance plan.
No comments:
Post a Comment