Zogby predicts the Republicans to win the mideterm elections

(Newsmax).President Barack Obama and both major political parties face an uphill fight going into this fall’s midterm elections, pollster John Zogby, president and CEO of Zogby International, told Newsmax.TV.

Republicans and Democrats have solid control over their respective bases, but Zogby told Newsmax.TV’s Kathleen Walter that neither party has any credibility with independent voters.

“Both parties are in trouble because neither party have a message for the middle, but they do have a message for their base,” Zogby said.

He said this polarization can be seen in Obama’s poll numbers, which have been hovering around 50 percent due to support from his base. Zogby’s most recent poll had Obama with a 49 percent approval rating.

The president enjoys firm support from Democrats, including 88 percent of blacks, which has kept his poll numbers from collapsing further.

“[This] means that he’s wounded, he’s not fatally wounded by any stretch of the imagination, but he is wounded,” Zogby said. “That means he’s not able to translate that into a governing majority, and he just rolled the dice by getting back to a campaign promise, which was to solve problems to build consensus.

“He’s not building the consensus part, but at least he’s trying to do something with the jobs bill, with the healthcare bill, and it remains to be seen whether the American people favor stagnation and inaction or whether they favor a risk taker.”

Zogby says it remains to be seen if Obama’s gamble of sticking with the Democrats’ unpopular healthcare bill will pay off for him politically in the long run because people want something done about healthcare, and he will be able to tell voters he tried doing something.

Obama also faces an uphill fight when it comes to jobs because his efforts to stimulate the economy.

“Whatever is spent on stimulating the market may just very well stem the tide without growing the economy,” Zogby said. “We’re in for a tough job market for a while.”

But he said Americans think the private sector should create jobs rather than the government.

It’s too soon to discount Obama’s re-election chances, Zogby said, because similar efforts against Ronald Reagan in 1982 and Bill Clinton in 1995 proved premature.

But Zogby believes Republicans will benefit from the Democrats’ missteps and pick up 25 seats in the House and 10 seats in the Senate.

He predicts Illinois Republican Rep. Mark Kirk will pickup Obama’s former Senate seat and that Sen. Arlen Specter, D-Pa., is vulnerable against former Rep. Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania, but he does not know how much damage Specter’s primary challenger, Rep. Joe Sestak, will inflict.

At the same time, he believes Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., will successfully fend off his primary challenge from conservative former Rep. J.D. Hayworth.

Gergen On CNN: Dems Didn't Get "Breakthrough" They Wanted; GOP "Had Their Best Day In Years"

The Election is over, Hell Yeah! The Mistaken summit of Obama

The Democrats’ Mistake [Jay Nordlinger] - NRO: Let me try something out on you: This health-care summit was a bad idea for the Democrats for this reason: They have long benefited from a perception — a perception greatly abetted by the media: The Republicans don’t care about health care, they don’t know about health care, they are the Party of No. All the ideas and caring are on the Democratic side.

It is not so, and it has never been so. And now everybody knows it.

Yuval Levin: Things could surely change this afternoon, but so far it is hard to see how the Democrats are doing themselves anything but harm with the health-care summit.

Beyond particular observations about individual exchanges or moments I would say the morning’s session suggests three broad points. First, the Democrats appear to have no particular purpose in mind for this event. They’re not driving anywhere, or making a clear individual case, while Republicans clearly want to get across the point that we should scrap the current bills and start over in pursuit of a few incremental steps. The Democrats may have thought that simply putting the spotlight on Republicans when the subject is health care would make the GOP look bad. But Republicans so far seem prepared enough and focused enough to avoid that, and to make the Democrats look rather aimless by comparison.

Second, the Democrats are going to great lengths to argue that their bill incorporates some Republican ideas—by which they mean that it includes insurance exchanges and the like—suggesting that this means they are moving in the direction of Republicans and toward some middle ground. They fail to see (or to acknowledge) that while some similar mechanisms may be proposed by wonks on both sides, Republicans and Democrats in fact want to move in nearly opposite directions from our current health-care arrangements: Republicans toward a genuine individual market and Democrats toward a greater socialization of costs. That makes a great deal of what Obama and the Democrats said this morning basically meaningless. (This is a point I tried to argue more fully in this space a while back.)

Third, an important part of the Democrats’ problem is that Obama himself is their only star, and this format is not working for him. He certainly seems engaged and well informed (even given a few misstatements of fact, at least one of which John Kyl made very clear.) But he doesn’t seem like the President of the United States—more like a slightly cranky committee chairman or a patronizing professor who thinks that saying something is “a legitimate argument” is a way to avoid having an argument. He is diminished by the circumstances, he’s cranky and prickly when challenged, and he’s got no one to help him. The other Democrats around the table have been worse than unimpressive. The Republicans seem genuinely well-prepared, seem to have thought through the question of who should speak about what rather carefully, and several of them have done quite a good job making their case against the Democrats’ approach. If we were to judge by debating points, Republicans certainly won the morning handily.

Romney's path to nomination: Stay competitive among conservatives, holding a large lead with moderates

(PPP Poll).Mitt Romney is the early preference, by a small margin, among Republican voters in both Texas and New Mexico to be their 2012 nominee for President.

In Texas he gets 32% with Mike Huckabee right behind at 29%, and Sarah Palin further back at 23%. In New Mexico he receives 33% to 32% for Palin and 18% for Huckabee.

The internals of these polls suggests a path to the nomination for Romney: stay competitive among conservative voters while holding a large lead with moderates. In Texas the three are bunched up among conservatives with Huckabee leading at 32% to 30% for Romney and 27% for Palin. But Romney's blowing the other two out of the water with moderates, getting 40% to 22% for Huckabee and 13% for Palin.

It's a similar story in New Mexico. Palin leads Romney 34-31 with conservatives, but Romney has the overall advantage thanks to a 37-29 advantage with moderates.

In each state Romney is particularly strong with senior citizens, who tend to comprise a large portion of the Republican primary electorate. He has an 11 point lead over Huckabee with them in Texas and 13 point lead over Palin with them in New Mexico.

Obviously it's incredibly early and things will change a lot between now and 2012, but it's a good sign for Romney to have even this small early advantage in a couple of states that are a long way from home.

George Bush endorses Dick Cheney role defending past policies

POLITICO 44: For the first time, former President George W. Bush has said publicly that he approves of former Vice President Dick Cheney’s high-profile role in defending the past administration’s national security policies.

“I’m glad Cheney is out there,” Bush said Friday morning at a reunion breakfast that was the inaugural event for the Bush-Cheney Alumni Association.

The reception, held at a downtown Washington hotel, was closed to the press. Attendees supplied this account of the remarks.

Cheney originally had been scheduled to appear with Bush but did not come because he is recovering from a heart scare. Bush visited his former vice president in McLean on Thursday and said Cheney “is feeling well” and has “a fierce constitution.”

The former president started with a funny patter that several attendees related to stand-up. In announcing his book, he joshed: “This is going to come as quite a shock to people up here that I can write a book, much less read one.”

Turning serious, Bush said: “I don't want to be involved in politics, but I do in policy.” He talked about his own record, saying of his signature education reform: “No Child Left Behind was the most advanced civil rights legislation since the Voting Rights Act.”

Giving advice, he urged humility. “Don’t swagger. Sometimes I got carried away rallying the country," he said. "I think the swagger criticism was fair. A lot of others weren't. I hope I conveyed a sense that I was a lowly sinner who found redemption. I'm not better than anyone else. What makes me different from others is that I realized I needed help.”

“I’m religious — I confess,” he continued. “One of the challenges in life is: Maintaining religious piety is harder when the pressure is off than when it is on. But now there is still a dependency in a greater grace.”

Bush made it clear he plans to continue to keep a low profile: “I have no desire to see myself on television. I don't want to be a panel of formers instructing the currents on what to do. I'm trying to regain a sense of anonymity. I didn't like it when a certain former president — and it wasn't 41 or 42 — made my life miserable.”

Tim Pawlenty: “President Obama will be a one term President"

Marco Rubio - The Republican Obama

(John B. Judis-TNR).Politicians who hold or aspire to high office have learned the hard way (e.g Trent Lott speaking at Strom Thurmond’s birthday party) that when you speak to a select group of loyalists in these viral times, you are also addressing a national audience, including people who would like nothing better than to latch onto some gaffe or fringe conviction. So when Marco Rubio—the former Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives who is running for Senate against Governor Charlie Crist (and leading in the polls)—spoke to the annual Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington last Thursday, he had no easy task ahead of him.

This year’s CPAC reminded me of the Christian Coalition meetings of the early 1990s. It was carefully staged; the rhetoric was generally inflammatory; the participants, who numbered 10,000 or so, were passionate in their beliefs; and their beliefs oftentimes veered into the realm of the preposterous. A good many thought the best way to get out of the current economic slump was to drastically cut government spending, abolish the income tax and the Federal Reserve, and go back on the gold standard. Some wanted to close the borders, get rid of the United Nations, and impeach Obama.

In the booths on the main floor, where many of the CPAC visitors mingled, one of the largest and most popular displays was from the John Birch Society, which had been banished from the conservative mainstream by William F. Buckley Jr. three decades ago, for the insistence of its founder, Robert Welch, that Dwight Eisenhower was a Communist. In its booth, the Birch Society was selling CDs of Welch’s speeches. How was someone with dreams of becoming a U.S. senator in a state larded with independents and moderates supposed to cope with this assemblage?

Well, precisely as Rubio did. His speech to the group was a masterpiece of political positioning. He assiduously avoided endorsing any of the notions of the crackpot right. Nothing about abolishing the Fed. He was against “cap-and-trade,” but did not brand global warming a hoax. He also didn’t criticize Obama himself. In fact, he didn’t mention Obama’s name. Yet, he had the audience on its feet, and for the remainder of the three-day event, it cheered lustily whenever a speaker mentioned his name.

His trick consisted partly of echoing the great themes of conservative America: opposition to big government, support for free enterprise, a determination to defeat “radical Islam and the threat it poses through terror.” But he breathed life into these weather-beaten notions by infusing them with his own life story, which proved their worthiness and their applicability. Unlike many a prominent Republican, Rubio could not be said to have been born with a silver or even stainless steel spoon. The son of Cuban exiles—his father worked as a bartender and mother as a maid—Rubio first attended college on a football scholarship. His is the classic story of the American dream fulfilled.

In his speech, he related how his grandfather, who had grown up in rural Cuba, had told him “that because of where he was born and who he was born to, there was only so much he was able to accomplish. But he wanted me to know that I would not have those limits, that there was no dreams, no ambitions, no aspirations unavailable to me. And he was right. … I have never once felt that there was something I couldn't do because of who my parents were or weren't.”

That was because, of course, Rubio was born in the United States, not Cuba. In America, he said, “you can be anything you are willing to work hard to be. The result is the only economy in the world where poor people with a better idea and a strong work ethic can compete and succeed against rich people in the marketplace and competition. And the result is the most reliable defender of freedom in the history of the world.”

Rubio never talked about Republicans and Democrats. His speech hovered above partisanship. Instead, he talked about “those who haven't seen it this way. … They think that we need a guardian class in American government to protect us from ourselves. They think that the free-enterprise system is unfair, that a few people make a lot of money, and the rest of us get left behind. They believe that the only way business can make its money is by exploiting its workers and its customers. And they think that America's enemies exist because of something America did to earn their enmity.”

These other politicians were trying to “redefine our government, our economy, and our country,” he warned. “The leaders with this worldview … have used a severe economic downturn, a severe recession as an excuse to implement the statist policies that they have longed for all this time.”

Rubio isn’t the first politician to use this kind of appeal: Barack Obama and Bill Clinton blended biography and political vision in their successful presidential campaigns. But Rubio has taken their method and used it to promote a very conservative rather than a liberal or progressive agenda. And he has done it in such a way that never really spells out what the specific agenda is. Does he think global warming is a hoax? Does he think the stimulus cost jobs rather than created them? He never said one way or the other, but his conservative audience was somehow led to believe that, like them, he held these views.

Rubio also didn’t brand his political opponents socialists. He didn’t describe the White House as followers, as one daffy speaker put it, of Marx, Engels, Che Guevara, Hugo Chavez, and Saul Alinsky. But using his own life story, he framed the choice facing Americans in a way that evoked the contrast between his Horatio Alger capitalism and Obama’s or Nancy Pelosi’s socialism. America, he said, “is the only country in the world where today’s employee is tomorrow’s employer. And yet, there are still people in American politics who, for some reason, cling to this belief that America is better off adopting the economic policies of nations whose people immigrate here from there.”

Rubio wasn’t referring to immigrants from the capitalist Philippines or Costa Rica, but those, like his own family, who came from socialist Cuba. “Do I want my children to grow up in the country that I grew up in or do I want them to grow up in a country like the one my parents grew up in?” he asked. The audience knew immediately what he was saying—and the choice he was posing—but his incendiary message was implicit and softened by the insertion of his biography.

Other speakers at the CPAC convention who had similar or even greater political aspirations—such as Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich—also tried to stoke the audience’s passions without endorsing their specific policies or prejudices, but none did so as eloquently or credibly as Rubio. The 39-year-old Cuban-American who has the looks of a matinee idol and speaks with wit and vigor is a force to be reckoned with.

Dick Cheney at CPAC : Barack Obama's 'a one-term president'

Former Vice President Dick Cheney made a surprise appearance this afternoon at the annual Conservative Political Action Conference gathering in Washington after a speech by his daughter, Liz Cheney. And a surprise proclamation.

He was greeted by cheers and chants of "Run, Cheney, Run!"

To which Cheney responded: "A welcome like that almost makes me want to run for office -- but I am not going to do it."Former Republican vice president Dick Cheney greets the crowd briefly at CPAC meeting Washington 2-18-10

The former representative, White House chief of staff, secretary of Defense and VP then stopped by the hall to chat with an old friend of his and The Ticket's, Scott Hennen, probably the Heartland's most prominent conservative talk-show radio host.

Cheney talked about his continuing concerns over the Obama administration's treatment of the man accused in the alleged Christmas Day bomb plot as a criminal case, not as part of a larger war on terror.

Cheney questioned the integrity of the Justice Department under the Democratic administration, especially its pursuit of investigations against CIA officials and attorneys from the previous administration.

Cheney repeated his support for the military strategy in Afghanistan outlined by Obama, who was off in Colorado today fundraising for embattled Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet.

And the Wyoming Republican even slipped in a plug for his daughter's website, KeepAmericaSafe.com. (Which has just posted a video of her CPAC speech, btw.)

Of special interest to politics fans awaiting the former VP's 2011 memoirs were Cheney's particularly outspoken responses to Hennen's questions about the nation's political situation in 2010.

This is the first midterm election year since Obama took office, historically a time when a new president's party suffers some membership losses on Capitol Hill.

Here are two Dick Cheney excerpts:

I think it is a combination of things. I think he totally misread the results of the last election.

He really believed he had some kind of a mandate to take the country in a radical direction...healthcare policy, cap and trade, economic policies, size of the government, the counter terrorism policy, and I think he’s been proven wrong on virtually every point.

We’re beginning to see the ramification of that now, and things like the Massachusetts election where Republicans captured that seat for the first time in 50 years, or what happened in Virginia and New Jersey. I think the year of 2010 is going to be a great year in congressional races, and I think President Obama is going to be a one-term president.

Another Dick Cheney excerpt:

I think 2010 is going to be a great year for Republicans. I was struck by the fact that Sen. Brown (who talked on election night in Massachusetts about his special election), that terrorism was on the top of the list of issues that he felt had been responsible for his victory in Massachusetts.

I think things are going to be very good this year, and for those of us in conservative causes, we need to get out there and do everything we can -- work hard. Lot of great candidates; we’ve got a lot of Democrats that I think are deciding not to run, like Sen. Bayh in Indiana.

Romney trails Obama by only 2 points 43-45, Romney leads among Independents 43-38

After trailing in one of the hypothetical match ups on our monthly 2012 poll for the first timein January, Obama is back ahead of all the potential 2012 hopefuls. He's up 45-43 on Mitt Romney, 46-43 on Mike Huckabee, 50-43 on Sarah Palin, and 46-28 on John Thune.

For Romney this is his first time flying solo as the closest Republican to Obama. In the previous ten polls Huckabee was the closest nine times and the tenth was a tie between Huckabee and Romney. The former Massachusetts Governor fares the best of the GOP contenders among independents, leading Obama 43-38.

Huckabee falls back behind Obama after leading by a point a month ago. He's the most well liked (maybe least disliked is a better term) of the Republican field among Democrats at a 16/40 spread.

Palin continues to be the weakest of the leading trio of Republicans. Where Romney and Huckabee hold small leads with independents she trails by 10 points. She also loses 14% of the Republican vote to Obama compared to only 10% for Romney and 11% for Huckabee.

Mr. Fix-it "Rebuild the Party" CPAC address - Mitt Romney's Best energized speech

Not again! CNN poll: 52% say Obama doesn't deserve reelection in 2012

(The Hill).52 percent of Americans said President Barack Obama doesn't deserve reelection in 2012, according to a new poll.

44 percent of all Americans said they would vote to reelect the president in two and a half years, less than the slight majority who said they would prefer to elect someone else.

Obama faces a 44-52 deficit among both all Americans and registered voters, according to a CNN/Opinion Research poll released Tuesday. Four percent had no opinion.

The reelection numbers are slightly more sour than Obama's approval ratings, which are basically tied. 49 percent of people told CNN that they approve of the way Obama is handling his job, while 50 percent disapprove.

Still, the 2012 election is still a long way's away, with this fall's midterm elections looming large. Republicans are hoping to make inroads into Congress, while Democrats are hoping to hold onto gains won in the 2006 and 2008 cycles.

Respondents to CNN were split at 46 percent as to whether they preferred a generic Republican or Democratic candidate in this fall's elections.

The VP debate on Fire! Biden: Cheney is rewriting History; Cheney: Obama projects weakness to terrorists

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

(Politico).Former Vice President Cheney will appear on ABC's "This Week" today, and it's a safe bet what he will say: President Barack Obama projects weakness to terrorists and puts American lives at risk.

It's the kind of brutal charge — nuance-free and politically explosive — that has become a Cheney specialty since he left office 13 months ago.

Cheney's broadsides on Afghanistan policy, detention and surveillance policies and Obama's general philosophy about the U.S. role in a dangerous world inevitably dominate the news. No other figure in Republican politics has equal ability to drive debate on national security, rally Obama critics and force the administration to respond. Vice President Joe Biden will be countering Cheney today on NBC's "Meet the Press" and CBS's "Face the Nation."

The former vice president's success in driving the Obama debate has prompted a secondary debate of its own: Why does Cheney do it?

Cheney associates say he abandoned plans for a sedate post-Bush administration retirement of fly-fishing and memoir writing because he is genuinely concerned that Obama is a weak leader who is responding to political pressures in modifying war and terrorism policies that Cheney himself was instrumental in crafting.

Cheney believes his own words apply opposite pressures that can either force Obama to think twice or hold him accountable if he doesn't.

"You've seen the national security debate shift, both because of the facts and the specifics that he has been able to marshal and speak about, but also because he's given strength and support to others who are speaking out," said a source close to Cheney who declined to be named.

The New and improved Romney - Mr. Fix-it! Optimism for America's future

(The Boston Phoenix)...His new book — No Apology: The Case for American Greatness — comes out in two weeks, and he'll be promoting it with a tour blitz that starts on The View and quickly heads to the crucial first-voting state of Iowa. This weekend, he's scheduled to speak at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Washington, DC, which will conduct a 2012 presidential straw poll. And he is already busy traveling the country, raising money for himself and other Republicans, to maintain and grow his national network.

From the looks of it, the 2012 version of Romney will be somewhat different than the one that lost in 2008. In that campaign, Romney tacked hard to the right — where Romney and his strategists perceived an opening as the conservative alternative to front-runners John McCain and Rudy Giuliani.

In retrospect, Team Romney believes their strategy was in error, according to some who are familiar with the campaign's post-election brainstorming. Although exit polls showed that he did well among the most ideological conservatives — particularly those most adamantly opposed to McCain's immigration-reform stance — he was not able to win over religious Christian conservatives. That left him unable to make up for sacrificing the votes of relatively moderate primary-goers.

In a nutshell, he made himself too conservative for blue-state Republicans, who opted for McCain, but wasn't conservative enough for red-state conservatives, who opted for Mike Huckabee.

"He was a Massachusetts moderate who tried to be a hard-right conservative," says one Republican strategist. "It turned out he probably would have been better off sticking with what he was — Mr. Fix-It."

"He got himself caught up in the social-issues debate," says Bill Achtmayer, chairman of business-strategy consultants the Parthenon Group and a supporter of Romney, his former colleague at Bain Consulting. "It diverted people's attention from what he does bring to the table."

As a result, the new Romney is now de-emphasizing social issues like abortion, same-sex marriage, and illegal immigration. He has made no public comment, for instance, about last week's announcement that top military leaders intend to end the "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" policy, has scrupulously avoided association with the Tea Party movement, and has refrained from backing conservatives that other presidential hopefuls have endorsed, such as Doug Hoffman in New York or Marco Rubio in Florida.

No Apology, and a series of planned speeches Romney will give during his book tour, will drive home that shift in emphasis. Advance word on the book, plus an audio excerpt released on the Web, make clear that it avoids those topics, and focuses on Romney's vision of maintaining America's fiscal and military superiority.

Much has changed since Romney decided to chase hard-core conservative votes four years ago. At that time, Romney was nationally unknown and needed a way to distinguish himself from a group of second-tier potential candidates.

Today, Republican insiders and political analysts say that Romney is already the de facto front-runner, regardless of whether he says he's running or not, thanks to his name recognition, his proven fundraising ability, and his established national operation

"Mitt Romney is 'next'," says Mike Dennehy, a political consultant in New Hampshire and senior policy advisor to McCain's 2008 campaign.

Plus, at least for the moment, pressing economic and foreign-policy concerns seem to have sent to the back burner the social issues that dogged Romney in '08. "It looks like the environment is shaping up to be favorable to him," says Dennehy. "Mitt Romney is the guy to beat. He's positioned himself real well since the 2008 election."

To win the Republican nomination without the South, Romney needs a blue-state strategy. By sweeping winner-take-all delegate primaries in the Northeast, the West Coast, and the industrial North, he could capture the GOP ticket.

To work, political analysts say, Romney will need the primary schedule to remain similar to the one in place in 2008. That year, only four states were authorized to hold contests before the official "window" opened on February 5 — after which it was open season. Unsurprisingly, states eager for attention raced to the front of that window (and several, including Michigan and Florida, defied the rules by going even earlier). Just a month after the first caucus, candidates were forced to compete coast-to-coast, in 21 states — including huge prizes like New York, California, Illinois, Massachusetts, and New Jersey — on what became known as "Super-Duper Tuesday." By the end of that day, more than half the convention delegates had been assigned.

Romney, with his name recognition, vast money supplies, and held-over national operation, can obviously play on such a vast scale in such a short time frame; his competitors are likely to be at a severe disadvantage.

But, as Giuliani demonstrated, even a well-known, well-funded candidate needs some momentum heading into that big day. That means Romney — unlike Giuliani — must win at least one of the four "pre-window" contests.

Those will be caucuses in Iowa and Nevada, and primaries in New Hampshire and South Carolina. Nevada, a low-turnout caucus in a heavily Mormon state, will likely be conceded to Romney, as it was in 2008 — which means he'll get no credit or attention for winning it.

If Romney couldn't win over Iowa's Christian conservatives in '08 — when he spent millions there, and McCain and Giuliani skipped the state — it's hard to see how he can do so in '12. Especially when a number of conservatives with strong religious credentials from nearby states are likely to be competing, including Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota, Mike Pence of Indiana, and John Thune of South Dakota.

If South Carolina is out of reach — and bear in mind that Romney finished fourth there in '08 after devoting three years and millions upon millions of dollars — that means Romney must win New Hampshire, particularly in that it's in his back yard.

"He needs to win one before Super Tuesday," says Dennehy. "And I would agree that he needs to win New Hampshire."

Its Obama, Stupid! CBS poll: Economy Brings Down Obama's Job Approval Rating to 46%

(CBS).As the lagging economy continues to weigh on people's minds, the American public is more disapproving than ever of President Obama's job performance, the latest CBS News/New York Times poll finds.

Mr. Obama's job approval rating stands at 46 percent, matching his previous low from early January. As many as 45 percent of Americans disapprove of the job he is doing – his highest disapproval rating to date. More than anything, Americans are critical of how Mr. Obama is handling domestic issues like the economy.

More Americans approve than disapprove of the job Mr. Obama is doing handling terrorism (55 percent) and foreign policy (47 percent), but the president scores poorly on domestic issues. More than half of Americans disapprove of how he is handling the economy, health care reform and the federal budget deficit.

And in terms of changing the way things are done in Washington -– a promise Mr. Obama campaigned on -– half think he has not made much progress, including one in five who say he has not made any progress at all.

While Americans are split on whether they approve of how the president is doing his job, slightly more people still have a favorable opinion of him, at 39 percent to 34 percent.

The president has clearly slipped in public estimation in the last few months when it comes to economic issues – which Americans name as the most important problem facing the country. Fifty-two percent of Americans disapprove of the president's handling of the economy. Additionally, 58 percent disapprove of Mr. Obama's handling of the budget deficit, up 15 points from July.

Most Americans do not think the president has a clear plan for creating jobs. While 39 percent say he does, 56 percent say he does not.

Obama's best decision! House GOP document: We won showdown with President Obama

(The Hill).House Republicans won their televised debate with President Barack Obama last month, according to a GOP document distributed to lawmakers on Thursday.

The document, obtained by The Hill, notes that Obama’s job approval ratings have dipped since the Jan. 29 meeting while Republican numbers have soared.

Obama traveled to Baltimore to attend the House Republican retreat and engaged in testy exchanges with several members. Many political observers said Obama came away victorious.

But Republican leaders are disputing that conventional wisdom, citing recent polls that indicate that they won the battle.

In a Thursday afternoon conference call with rank-and-file House GOP lawmakers, leaders shared a list of survey data taken before and after the retreat.

In the document titled “Recent Public Surveys, Fielded Post Baltimore Retreat,” Republican leaders focused on Obama’s job approval, generic ballot matchups, party brand image and issue handling.

Republicans numbers in all these areas have improved over the last couple of weeks.

“Since the Baltimore retreat there have been several public surveys released. Four surveys had President Obama’s job approval getting worse” the document states.

Polls taken by the Washington Post/ABC News, Fox News, Marist and Democracy Corps show Obama’s approval rating slip from two to four percentage points.

Three of the surveys asked questions about generic ballot match-ups. Before the showdown in Baltimore, the Washington Post/ABC News comparison showed Republicans losing 39 percent to 51 percent and 46-46 this month.

“In the Washington Post/ABC News survey, among adults Republicans were even with Democrats. The last time that occurred in this survey was in November 2002. Among registered voters in the Post/ABC survey Republicans led by a 3 point margin 48-45,” the document states.

A Sneak peek at Mitt Romney reading a chapter of his book "No apology-The case for American greatness"

FoxNewsnow.com: Mitt Romney is shown reading in studio for his new book: “No Apology: The Case for American Greatness.” FOX 13 has obtained a peek to the first chapter of the book provided by the publisher, Macmillan. Hinkley Institute director, Kirk Jowers says that the writings take a “fresh look” at America’s rising debt and global image regarding foreign diplomacy. The book will be available March 2.

Frmr Secretary of State Eagleburger: US Will Be Blamed for Iran's use of Nukes

Nate Silver/ Romney's best chances to wrap up GOP '12 Nomination

Nate Silver takes an interesting peak at the 2012 Republican primary calendar and handicaps the chances for each of the prospective candidates, on Fivethirtyeight:

Mitt Romney's paths might look something like this, and are probably somewhat more straightforward than Palin's.

Romney Plan A. Win Iowa. Win New Hampshire. Game over.

Romney Plan B-1. (If Palin is knocked out) Lose Iowa. Win New Hampshire. Win Nevada. Sweep orange states on the basis of organizational strength. Veer slightly to the left, emphasizing electability and cleaning up in delegate-rich states like California and New York. You probably outlast a Southern opponent like Huckabee, perhaps even fairly easily. A Midwesterner that could win states like Ohio, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania might be more challenging.

Romney Plan B-2. (If Palin survives) Lose Iowa. Win New Hampshire. Win Nevada. Split orange states with Palin on the basis of organizational strength. Hope that gold or purple states came up next, in which case you should build up a substantial delegate lead. If so, the party infrastructure may start to close ranks around you. If green states come up instead, Palin is tougher and you're in for a war of attrition with flagging momentum.

Gallup: Mitt Romney leads GOP '12 , trails Obama 42-44, Independents prefer GOP candidate over Obama 45 - 31

Registered voters are about equally divided as to whether they would more likely vote to re-elect Barack Obama in the 2012 presidential election, or vote for the Republican candidate.

If Barack Obama Runs for Re-Election in 2012, in General, Are You More Likely to Vote for Obama or for the Republican Party's Candidate for President?

These results are based on a Feb. 1-3 Gallup poll. 44% of U.S. registered voters say they are more likely to vote for Obama, 42% for the Republican candidate, and the remaining 14% are undecided or would vote for another candidate.

A year into his first term as president, Obama's approval ratings are hovering around 50%. The 50% approval figure has been a strong predictor of an incumbent president's re-election: presidents who averaged 50% or better from January of an election year through Election Day have all been re-elected. This includes George W. Bush, who averaged 51% in 2004, though his approval rating was 48% in Gallup's final pre-election poll.

Independents currently show a greater preference for the Republican candidate than for Obama, by 45% to 31%.

The poll asked Republicans and Republican-leaning independents to name, without prompting, whom they would most like to see as the party's 2012 presidential candidate. It is clear at this early date that most Republicans have not developed a preference, with 42% not having an opinion or volunteering that they do not prefer any candidate.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin are most frequently mentioned, by 14% and 11%, respectively. Seven percent mention Arizona Sen. John McCain, the 2008 nominee. Newly elected Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, former Arkansas Gov. and 2008 candidate Mike Huckabee, and former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich are each mentioned by at least 3% of Republicans.

Just Off the Top of Your Head, Which Republican Would You Most Like to See as the Party's Candidate for President in the 2012 Election? Among Republicans and Republican-Leaning Independents

Whereas conservative (15%) and moderate or liberal (14%) Republicans are about equally likely to mention Romney as their preferred nominee, Palin is much more likely to be mentioned by conservatives (14%) than by moderates and liberals (3%). Conservatives generally outnumber moderates and liberals by about 2 to 1 within the Republican Party.

Obama's re-election chances partly hinge on whom the Republicans nominate, because it is not clear whether a "generic" Republican (as measured in the current data) would perform better or worse than a specific candidate. At this point, Romney and Palin can be considered the early front-runners for the GOP nomination, a position that has proven advantageous in most past Republican nomination campaigns.

Franken blasts Obama’s lack of leadership in meeting of Senate Democrats

Politico reports that an angry confrontation ensued when David Axelrod met with Senate Democrats in private this week. While Obama’s meeting with Congressional Democrats was so managed as to be boring, Axelrod took the brunt of anger from the caucus, especially Al Franken, not exactly known for his sunny disposition. However, Franken was not alone in complaining about the lack of leadership from the White House:

Sen. Al Franken ripped into White House senior adviser David Axelrod this week during a tense, closed-door session with Senate Democrats.

Five sources who were in the room tell POLITICO that Franken criticized Axelrod for the administration’s failure to provide clarity or direction on health care and the other big bills it wants Congress to enact.

The sources said Franken was the most outspoken senator in the meeting, which followed President Barack Obama’s question-and-answer session with Senate Democrats at the Newseum on Wednesday. But they also said the Minnesotan wasn’t the only angry Democrat in the room.

“There was a lot of frustration in there,” said a Democratic senator who declined to be identified.

“People were hot,” another Democratic senator said.

Yo si puedo! Florida GOP Senate: Rubio 49%, Crist 37%

(rasmussen).Former state House Speaker Marco Rubio has now jumped to a 12-point lead over Governor Charlie Crist in Florida’s Republican Primary race for the U.S. Senate.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely GOP Primary voters in the state finds Rubio leading Crist 49% to 37%. Three percent (3%) prefer another candidate, and 11% are undecided.

The new numbers mark a stunning turnaround. Crist was the strong favorite when he first announced for the Senate seat, and Rubio was viewed as a long-shot challenger.

But Crist’s support fell from 53% in August to 49% in October. By December, the two men were tied at 43% apiece.

Rubio leads Crist by 17 points among men and by seven among women. He also carries 52% of the conservative GOP vote, while moderates prefer Crist.

Crist’s fortunes appear to be tied in part to national unhappiness over President Obama and his policies. Many conservatives began rebelling against Crist when he became one of the few Republican governors to embrace Obama’s $787-billion economic stimulus plan last year. The national Republican party establishment endorsed Crist early on, but a number of prominent national party conservatives have since announced their support for Rubio. Nationally, the GOP’s Florida Senate race is being watched as a test of the new “Tea Party” mood among many conservative and traditionally Republican voters.