(The Boston Phoenix)...His new book — No Apology: The Case for American Greatness — comes out in two weeks, and he'll be promoting it with a tour blitz that starts on The View and quickly heads to the crucial first-voting state of Iowa. This weekend, he's scheduled to speak at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Washington, DC, which will conduct a 2012 presidential straw poll. And he is already busy traveling the country, raising money for himself and other Republicans, to maintain and grow his national network.
From the looks of it, the 2012 version of Romney will be somewhat different than the one that lost in 2008. In that campaign, Romney tacked hard to the right — where Romney and his strategists perceived an opening as the conservative alternative to front-runners John McCain and Rudy Giuliani.
In retrospect, Team Romney believes their strategy was in error, according to some who are familiar with the campaign's post-election brainstorming. Although exit polls showed that he did well among the most ideological conservatives — particularly those most adamantly opposed to McCain's immigration-reform stance — he was not able to win over religious Christian conservatives. That left him unable to make up for sacrificing the votes of relatively moderate primary-goers.
In a nutshell, he made himself too conservative for blue-state Republicans, who opted for McCain, but wasn't conservative enough for red-state conservatives, who opted for Mike Huckabee.
"He was a Massachusetts moderate who tried to be a hard-right conservative," says one Republican strategist. "It turned out he probably would have been better off sticking with what he was — Mr. Fix-It."
"He got himself caught up in the social-issues debate," says Bill Achtmayer, chairman of business-strategy consultants the Parthenon Group and a supporter of Romney, his former colleague at Bain Consulting. "It diverted people's attention from what he does bring to the table."
As a result, the new Romney is now de-emphasizing social issues like abortion, same-sex marriage, and illegal immigration. He has made no public comment, for instance, about last week's announcement that top military leaders intend to end the "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" policy, has scrupulously avoided association with the Tea Party movement, and has refrained from backing conservatives that other presidential hopefuls have endorsed, such as Doug Hoffman in New York or Marco Rubio in Florida.
No Apology, and a series of planned speeches Romney will give during his book tour, will drive home that shift in emphasis. Advance word on the book, plus an audio excerpt released on the Web, make clear that it avoids those topics, and focuses on Romney's vision of maintaining America's fiscal and military superiority.
Much has changed since Romney decided to chase hard-core conservative votes four years ago. At that time, Romney was nationally unknown and needed a way to distinguish himself from a group of second-tier potential candidates.
Today, Republican insiders and political analysts say that Romney is already the de facto front-runner, regardless of whether he says he's running or not, thanks to his name recognition, his proven fundraising ability, and his established national operation
"Mitt Romney is 'next'," says Mike Dennehy, a political consultant in New Hampshire and senior policy advisor to McCain's 2008 campaign.
Plus, at least for the moment, pressing economic and foreign-policy concerns seem to have sent to the back burner the social issues that dogged Romney in '08. "It looks like the environment is shaping up to be favorable to him," says Dennehy. "Mitt Romney is the guy to beat. He's positioned himself real well since the 2008 election."
To win the Republican nomination without the South, Romney needs a blue-state strategy. By sweeping winner-take-all delegate primaries in the Northeast, the West Coast, and the industrial North, he could capture the GOP ticket.
To work, political analysts say, Romney will need the primary schedule to remain similar to the one in place in 2008. That year, only four states were authorized to hold contests before the official "window" opened on February 5 — after which it was open season. Unsurprisingly, states eager for attention raced to the front of that window (and several, including Michigan and Florida, defied the rules by going even earlier). Just a month after the first caucus, candidates were forced to compete coast-to-coast, in 21 states — including huge prizes like New York, California, Illinois, Massachusetts, and New Jersey — on what became known as "Super-Duper Tuesday." By the end of that day, more than half the convention delegates had been assigned.
Romney, with his name recognition, vast money supplies, and held-over national operation, can obviously play on such a vast scale in such a short time frame; his competitors are likely to be at a severe disadvantage.
But, as Giuliani demonstrated, even a well-known, well-funded candidate needs some momentum heading into that big day. That means Romney — unlike Giuliani — must win at least one of the four "pre-window" contests.
Those will be caucuses in Iowa and Nevada, and primaries in New Hampshire and South Carolina. Nevada, a low-turnout caucus in a heavily Mormon state, will likely be conceded to Romney, as it was in 2008 — which means he'll get no credit or attention for winning it.
If Romney couldn't win over Iowa's Christian conservatives in '08 — when he spent millions there, and McCain and Giuliani skipped the state — it's hard to see how he can do so in '12. Especially when a number of conservatives with strong religious credentials from nearby states are likely to be competing, including Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota, Mike Pence of Indiana, and John Thune of South Dakota.
If South Carolina is out of reach — and bear in mind that Romney finished fourth there in '08 after devoting three years and millions upon millions of dollars — that means Romney must win New Hampshire, particularly in that it's in his back yard.
"He needs to win one before Super Tuesday," says Dennehy. "And I would agree that he needs to win New Hampshire."
From the looks of it, the 2012 version of Romney will be somewhat different than the one that lost in 2008. In that campaign, Romney tacked hard to the right — where Romney and his strategists perceived an opening as the conservative alternative to front-runners John McCain and Rudy Giuliani.
In retrospect, Team Romney believes their strategy was in error, according to some who are familiar with the campaign's post-election brainstorming. Although exit polls showed that he did well among the most ideological conservatives — particularly those most adamantly opposed to McCain's immigration-reform stance — he was not able to win over religious Christian conservatives. That left him unable to make up for sacrificing the votes of relatively moderate primary-goers.
In a nutshell, he made himself too conservative for blue-state Republicans, who opted for McCain, but wasn't conservative enough for red-state conservatives, who opted for Mike Huckabee.
"He was a Massachusetts moderate who tried to be a hard-right conservative," says one Republican strategist. "It turned out he probably would have been better off sticking with what he was — Mr. Fix-It."
"He got himself caught up in the social-issues debate," says Bill Achtmayer, chairman of business-strategy consultants the Parthenon Group and a supporter of Romney, his former colleague at Bain Consulting. "It diverted people's attention from what he does bring to the table."
As a result, the new Romney is now de-emphasizing social issues like abortion, same-sex marriage, and illegal immigration. He has made no public comment, for instance, about last week's announcement that top military leaders intend to end the "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" policy, has scrupulously avoided association with the Tea Party movement, and has refrained from backing conservatives that other presidential hopefuls have endorsed, such as Doug Hoffman in New York or Marco Rubio in Florida.
No Apology, and a series of planned speeches Romney will give during his book tour, will drive home that shift in emphasis. Advance word on the book, plus an audio excerpt released on the Web, make clear that it avoids those topics, and focuses on Romney's vision of maintaining America's fiscal and military superiority.
Much has changed since Romney decided to chase hard-core conservative votes four years ago. At that time, Romney was nationally unknown and needed a way to distinguish himself from a group of second-tier potential candidates.
Today, Republican insiders and political analysts say that Romney is already the de facto front-runner, regardless of whether he says he's running or not, thanks to his name recognition, his proven fundraising ability, and his established national operation
"Mitt Romney is 'next'," says Mike Dennehy, a political consultant in New Hampshire and senior policy advisor to McCain's 2008 campaign.
Plus, at least for the moment, pressing economic and foreign-policy concerns seem to have sent to the back burner the social issues that dogged Romney in '08. "It looks like the environment is shaping up to be favorable to him," says Dennehy. "Mitt Romney is the guy to beat. He's positioned himself real well since the 2008 election."
To win the Republican nomination without the South, Romney needs a blue-state strategy. By sweeping winner-take-all delegate primaries in the Northeast, the West Coast, and the industrial North, he could capture the GOP ticket.
To work, political analysts say, Romney will need the primary schedule to remain similar to the one in place in 2008. That year, only four states were authorized to hold contests before the official "window" opened on February 5 — after which it was open season. Unsurprisingly, states eager for attention raced to the front of that window (and several, including Michigan and Florida, defied the rules by going even earlier). Just a month after the first caucus, candidates were forced to compete coast-to-coast, in 21 states — including huge prizes like New York, California, Illinois, Massachusetts, and New Jersey — on what became known as "Super-Duper Tuesday." By the end of that day, more than half the convention delegates had been assigned.
Romney, with his name recognition, vast money supplies, and held-over national operation, can obviously play on such a vast scale in such a short time frame; his competitors are likely to be at a severe disadvantage.
But, as Giuliani demonstrated, even a well-known, well-funded candidate needs some momentum heading into that big day. That means Romney — unlike Giuliani — must win at least one of the four "pre-window" contests.
Those will be caucuses in Iowa and Nevada, and primaries in New Hampshire and South Carolina. Nevada, a low-turnout caucus in a heavily Mormon state, will likely be conceded to Romney, as it was in 2008 — which means he'll get no credit or attention for winning it.
If Romney couldn't win over Iowa's Christian conservatives in '08 — when he spent millions there, and McCain and Giuliani skipped the state — it's hard to see how he can do so in '12. Especially when a number of conservatives with strong religious credentials from nearby states are likely to be competing, including Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota, Mike Pence of Indiana, and John Thune of South Dakota.
If South Carolina is out of reach — and bear in mind that Romney finished fourth there in '08 after devoting three years and millions upon millions of dollars — that means Romney must win New Hampshire, particularly in that it's in his back yard.
"He needs to win one before Super Tuesday," says Dennehy. "And I would agree that he needs to win New Hampshire."
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